NASDAQ: PZZA · Restaurants
Papa John's International (PZZA) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Papa John's International (PZZA) at $23.18 a share. The stock last closed at $19.43, which puts the model's fair value 19.3% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Papa John's International, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza chain. It manages and grants franchises for its Papa John's branded delivery and take-out restaurants across the United States and internationally.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $23.18 a share on 26 Sep 2026. This was the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave the same fair value. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $19.45 to $28.26, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score was 60 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. The model compares it with BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI), The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE), CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA), and Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -17.7% to +46.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PZZA?
The calibrated range for PZZA over 63 trading days is $19.45 to $28.26. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $11.42 to $37.66. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PZZA score on business quality?
Papa John's International's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 78 | 11.3%ROIC | 1.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 1.24xFCF / net income | 1.47x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 17 | -0.3%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 33 | 3.80xNet debt / EBITDA | 7.83x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 72 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does PZZA compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Papa John's International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | $55.76 | $45.56 | -18.3% | Low evidence grade |
| WEN The Wendy's Company | $6.12 | $8.54 | +39.5% | Low evidence grade |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | $61.93 | $73.14 | +18.1% | Undervalued |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $60.98 | $69.03 | +13.2% | Data under review |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $106.89 | $108.38 | +1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $109.65 | $100.18 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $54.41 | $41.16 | -24.4% | Overvalued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.09 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
When does PZZA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Papa John's International's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 23.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PZZA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -17.7% |
| 7 May 2026 | -7.8% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -7.3% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -0.4% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +6.9% |
| 8 May 2025 | +46.3% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -1.9% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -5.4% |
Papa John's International at a glance
Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza chain that manages and grants franchises for its Papa John's branded delivery and take-out restaurants across the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $643M
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.43
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Papa John's International on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PZZA was $23.18. It is unchanged at $23.18 as of 26 Sep 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Papa John's International's valuation
Is Papa John's International stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PZZA's fair value at $23.18 a share against a last close of $19.43, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PZZA's fair value?
$23.18 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $11.42 to $37.66.
What price range does the model give PZZA?
$19.45 to $28.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Papa John's International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PZZA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +46.3% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PZZA is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.