NASDAQ: RRR · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Red Rock Resorts (RRR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Red Rock Resorts (RRR) at $63.02 a share. The stock last closed at $50.31, which puts the model's fair value 25.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Red Rock Resorts, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. develops and operates casino and entertainment properties throughout the United States. This is primarily achieved through its investments in Station Holdco and Station LLC.
Faircurve's model valued Red Rock Resorts, Inc. at $63.02 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $60.71, so the fair value moved +3.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days, $52.58 to $76.40, was built from the fair value and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. has an overall quality score of 56 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. and Vail Resorts, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -10.5% to +18.4%, with a median size of 6.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give RRR?
The calibrated range for RRR over 63 trading days is $52.58 to $76.40. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 48% ended below it; the typical move was +3.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $38.43 to $91.33. In 66% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does RRR score on business quality?
Red Rock Resorts's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 70 | 12.9%ROIC | 7.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | 3.18xFCF / net income | 0.78x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 42 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 27 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 5.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 24 | 4.47xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.03x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 64 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.0 pts |
How does RRR compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to Red Rock Resorts in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $104.20 | $105.38 | +1.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | $117.55 | $116.76 | -0.7% | Fairly valued |
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $14.77 | $15.36 | +4.0% | Low evidence grade |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $67.25 | $77.99 | +16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | $141.16 | $112.18 | -20.5% | Overvalued |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $76.05 | $72.28 | -5.0% | Low evidence grade |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.65 | $32.15 | +8.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | $30.48 | $2.19 | -92.8% | Data under review |
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does RRR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Red Rock Resorts's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How RRR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -7.1% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -2.8% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | -1.0% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -10.5% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +9.7% |
| 1 May 2025 | +18.4% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | +2.3% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -5.9% |
Red Rock Resorts at a glance
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. is a company that develops and operates casino and entertainment properties throughout the United States. This is primarily achieved through its investments in Station Holdco and Station LLC.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.48
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Red Rock Resorts on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for RRR was $60.71. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $63.02, a change of +3.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Red Rock Resorts's valuation
Is Red Rock Resorts stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, RRR reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $63.02 a share against a last close of $50.31, a gap of +25.3%.
What is RRR's fair value?
$63.02 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $38.43 to $91.33.
What price range does the model give RRR?
$52.58 to $76.40 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Red Rock Resorts report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RRR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.4% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RRR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.