NASDAQ: SMPL · Packaged Foods
Simply Good Foods (SMPL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Simply Good Foods (SMPL) at $11.54 a share. The stock last closed at $9.83, which puts the model's fair value 17.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Simply Good Foods Company.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a global purveyor of consumer packaged food and beverage items, with a significant presence across North America and in international markets.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $11.54 a share on 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $12.10, and the fair value moved -4.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $9.68 to $14.07, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 55 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 14, earnings quality 100, growth quality 41, capital discipline 100, balance sheet 70, and stability 56. The model compares it with John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., Flowers Foods, Inc., J&J Snack Foods Corp., Central Garden & Pet Company, Central Garden & Pet Company, and Freshpet, Inc. The stock moved -3.1% after its 9 Jul 2026 earnings report, -27.6% after 9 Apr 2026, +10.5% after 8 Jan 2026, and -18.8% after 23 Oct 2025.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SMPL?
The calibrated range for SMPL over 63 trading days is $9.68 to $14.07. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $8.31 to $15.61. In 67% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SMPL score on business quality?
Simply Good Foods's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 14 | 3.8%ROIC | 7.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 41 | 9.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 28.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -1.22xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.91x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 56 | 1.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does SMPL compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Simply Good Foods in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBSS John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | $68.52 | $71.76 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. | $7.43 | $8.62 | +16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| FLO Flowers Foods, Inc. | $5.57 | $5.75 | +3.2% | Fairly valued |
| JJSF J&J Snack Foods Corp. | $78.25 | $76.83 | -1.8% | Fairly valued |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | $34.28 | $35.06 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $39.81 | $42.12 | +5.8% | Fairly valued |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $60.26 | $58.08 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $72.56 | $79.67 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
When does SMPL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Simply Good Foods's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SMPL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | -3.1% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | -27.6% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | +10.5% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -18.8% |
| 10 Jul 2025 | +1.7% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | -2.7% |
| 8 Jan 2025 | -6.5% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +3.8% |
Simply Good Foods at a glance
The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a global purveyor of consumer packaged food and beverage items, with a significant presence across North America and in international markets.
- Market value
- $849M
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -6.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Simply Good Foods on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SMPL was $12.10. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $11.54, a change of -4.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Simply Good Foods's valuation
Is Simply Good Foods stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SMPL reads as Undervalued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $11.54 a share against a last close of $9.83, a gap of +17.4%.
What is SMPL's fair value?
$11.54 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $8.31 to $15.61.
What price range does the model give SMPL?
$9.68 to $14.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Simply Good Foods report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SMPL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -27.6% around the report of 9 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SMPL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.