NYSE: STZ · Alcoholic Beverages
Constellation Brands (STZ) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Constellation Brands (STZ) at $133.25 a share. The stock last closed at $112.87, which puts the model's fair value 18.1% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Constellation Brands, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Constellation Brands, Inc. produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $133.25 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.0% since the previous run, which gave $134.54 on 26 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $102.49 to $132.42, built around the price from the stock's own options and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score for the business is 46 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Molson Coors Beverage Company, The Boston Beer Company, Inc., Tyson Foods, Inc., Bunge Global S.A., US Foods Holding Corp., Dollar Tree, Inc., and General Mills, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -15.2% to +8.1%, with a median size of 4.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give STZ?
The calibrated range for STZ over 63 trading days is $102.49 to $132.42. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that STZ's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $60.37 to $242.80. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does STZ score on business quality?
Constellation Brands's overall quality score is 46 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 46 | 11.6%ROIC | 16.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 84 | 1.01xFCF / net income | 0.83x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 19 | -10.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 62 | 4.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 35 | 3.15xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 12 | 7.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does STZ compare with similar companies?
The companies in alcoholic beverages closest to Constellation Brands in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company | $36.86 | $36.70 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc. | $167.50 | $179.20 | +7.0% | Fairly valued |
| TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $51.89 | $56.12 | +8.2% | Fairly valued |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | $106.72 | $98.22 | -8.0% | Fairly valued |
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $96.92 | $99.58 | +2.7% | Fairly valued |
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $112.16 | $156.97 | +40.0% | Undervalued |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | $32.01 | $35.55 | +11.1% | Fairly valued |
| CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $94.31 | $87.71 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
When does STZ report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Constellation Brands's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. STZ's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.5% over one month.
How STZ moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | -2.0% |
| 8 Apr 2026 | +6.0% |
| 7 Jan 2026 | +3.0% |
| 6 Oct 2025 | -1.4% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | +6.9% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +8.1% |
| 10 Jan 2025 | -15.2% |
| 3 Oct 2024 | -3.5% |
Constellation Brands at a glance
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.
- Market value
- $19.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.03
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Constellation Brands on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for STZ was $134.54. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $133.25, a change of -1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Constellation Brands's valuation
Is Constellation Brands stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts STZ's fair value at $133.25 a share against a last close of $112.87, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is STZ's fair value?
$133.25 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $60.37 to $242.80.
What price range does the model give STZ?
$102.49 to $132.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Constellation Brands report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has STZ moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.2% around the report of 10 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for STZ is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.