NYSE: SW · Packaging & Containers
Smurfit Westrock (SW) fair value and price range
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Smurfit Westrock (SW) at $51.25 a share. The stock last closed at $42.54, which puts the model's fair value 20.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Smurfit Westrock plc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally.
Faircurve's model on 1 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $51.25 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $53.46, so the fair value moved -4.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days, $43.00 to $62.49, was built from the fair value and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business scores 40 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compares it with Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Amcor plc (AMCR), Ball Corporation (BALL), Greif, Inc. (GEF), and Silgan Holdings Inc. (SLGN). The stock moved -6.5% after its 29 Jul 2026 earnings report and +15.2% after its 30 Oct 2024 report.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SW?
The calibrated range for SW over 63 trading days is $43.00 to $62.49. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $28.18 to $83.29. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SW score on business quality?
Smurfit Westrock's overall quality score is 40 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 3.6%ROIC | 11.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 86 | 2.08xFCF / net income | 0.95x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 64 | 53.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 11 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 31 | 3.86xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.77x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does SW compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to Smurfit Westrock in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $228.54 | $221.23 | -3.2% | Fairly valued |
| AMCR Amcor plc | $41.86 | $49.13 | +17.4% | Undervalued |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $56.37 | $53.32 | -5.4% | Fairly valued |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | $169.87 | $164.58 | -3.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $106.05 | $121.83 | +14.9% | Low evidence grade |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | $48.74 | $57.78 | +18.5% | Low evidence grade |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $82.18 | $73.64 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $34.87 | $38.40 | +10.1% | Fairly valued |
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does SW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Smurfit Westrock's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -6.5% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -0.6% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +12.4% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -16.4% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -7.9% |
| 1 May 2025 | -1.8% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +1.9% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +15.2% |
Smurfit Westrock at a glance
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally.
- Market value
- $24.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $33.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Smurfit Westrock on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SW was $53.46. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $51.25, a change of -4.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Smurfit Westrock's valuation
Is Smurfit Westrock stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SW's fair value at $51.25 a share against a last close of $42.54, as of 1 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is SW's fair value?
$51.25 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $28.18 to $83.29.
What price range does the model give SW?
$43.00 to $62.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Smurfit Westrock report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.4% around the report of 29 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SW is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.