NYSE: THG · Property & Casualty Insurance
Hanover Insurance Group (THG) fair value and price range
As of 4 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Hanover Insurance Group (THG) at $262.74 a share. The stock last closed at $247.31, which puts the model's fair value 6.2% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 4 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $256.64 to $262.74 (+2.4%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $247.31 is 6.2% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 8% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give THG?
The calibrated range for THG over 63 trading days is $228.70 to $272.26. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that THG's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $204.44 to $339.97. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 4 Nov 2026
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) is a U.S.-based insurer. It offers a wide array of property and casualty coverage through its various operating units.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $262.74 a share on 4 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 31 Oct 2026, gave $256.64, a move of +2.4%. The model says it does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $228.70 to $272.26. It is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply and calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at the number and agreement of comparable companies, the width of the range of outcomes, and whether the valuation methods agree. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality score for the business against its peers. The model compares it with Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI), Mercury General Corporation (MCY), American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) and Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR), each with a fair value of its own on the site. Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL), RLI Corp. (RLI), Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) and Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) are also comparable companies, with no verdict on this date. Faircurve first valued the company on 11 Jul 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 4 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does THG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hanover Insurance Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 4 Nov 2026, THG's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 7.6% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across THG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.0%.
How does THG compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Hanover Insurance Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $383.55 | $314.34 | -18.0% | Low evidence grade |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $66.84 | $47.48 | -29.0% | Low evidence grade |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $100.57 | $106.58 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $269.67 | $183.17 | -32.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | $102.71 | $161.74 | +57.5% | Undervalued |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $153.00 | $179.12 | +17.1% | Undervalued |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $296.13 | $223.66 | -24.5% | Low evidence grade |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $142.21 | $78.60 | -44.7% | Overvalued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Hanover Insurance Group at a glance
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) is a U.S.-based insurer offering a wide array of property and casualty coverage through its various operating units.
- Market value
- $8.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hanover Insurance Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for THG was $256.64. As of 4 Nov 2026 it is $262.74, a change of +2.4%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hanover Insurance Group's valuation
Is Hanover Insurance Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts THG's fair value at $262.74 a share against a last close of $247.31, as of 4 Nov 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is THG's fair value?
$262.74 a share as of 4 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $204.44 to $339.97.
What price range does the model give THG?
$228.70 to $272.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Hanover Insurance Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has THG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.8% around the report of 28 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for THG is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on THG
The model holds no idea open on THG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on THG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.