NASDAQ: UFCS · Property & Casualty Insurance
United Fire Group (UFCS) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values United Fire Group (UFCS) at $49.77 a share. The stock last closed at $54.62, which puts the model's fair value 8.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. United Fire Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
United Fire Group, Inc. operates throughout the United States, specialising in property and casualty insurance solutions for both personal and commercial clients. It is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $49.77 a share for United Fire Group, Inc. on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $49.94, so the fair value moved -0.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $41.52 to $60.34, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model compares United Fire Group, Inc. with Safety Insurance Group, Inc., Palomar Holdings, Inc., and Selective Insurance Group, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 8.0%, ignoring direction. These moves were: 3 Aug 2026 +4.5%, 5 May 2026 +9.6%, 10 Feb 2026 +7.4%, 4 Nov 2025 +16.1%, 5 Aug 2025 +7.7%, 6 May 2025 +8.3%, 11 Feb 2025 +3.4%, and 5 Nov 2024 +27.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give UFCS?
The calibrated range for UFCS over 63 trading days is $41.52 to $60.34. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $38.63 to $62.93. In 38% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does UFCS compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to United Fire Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | $25.67 | $24.06 | -6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | $103.92 | $48.90 | -52.9% | Overvalued |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | $51.55 | $33.33 | -35.3% | Low evidence grade |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | $45.26 | $39.06 | -13.7% | Low evidence grade |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | $23.58 | $15.36 | -34.9% | Low evidence grade |
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $184.25 | $251.26 | +36.4% | Low evidence grade |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $126.49 | $93.12 | -26.4% | Overvalued |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $85.59 | $82.52 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does UFCS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
United Fire Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How UFCS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | +4.5% |
| 5 May 2026 | +9.6% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +7.4% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +16.1% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +7.7% |
| 6 May 2025 | +8.3% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | +3.4% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +27.4% |
United Fire Group at a glance
Headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) operates throughout the United States, specializing in property and casualty insurance solutions for both personal and commercial clients.
- Market value
- $1.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices United Fire Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for UFCS was $49.94. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $49.77, a change of -0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about United Fire Group's valuation
Is United Fire Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts UFCS's fair value at $49.77 a share against a last close of $54.62, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is UFCS's fair value?
$49.77 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $38.63 to $62.93.
What price range does the model give UFCS?
$41.52 to $60.34 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does United Fire Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UFCS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +27.4% around the report of 5 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UFCS is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.