NYSE: VAL · Oil & Gas Drilling
Valaris (VAL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Valaris (VAL) at $66.15 a share. The stock last closed at $78.39, which puts the model's fair value 15.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Valaris Limited.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Valaris Limited provides offshore contract drilling services in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Gulf of America, Australia, Angola, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Floaters, Jackups, ARO, and Other.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $66.15 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $67.45, so the fair value moved -1.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $55.19 to $80.19, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 39 out of 100. The model compares Valaris Limited with Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc., Helmerich & Payne, Inc., Murphy Oil Corporation, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc., CVR Energy, Inc., Archrock, Inc., Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, and Weatherford International plc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give VAL?
The calibrated range for VAL over 63 trading days is $55.19 to $80.19. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $43.56 to $96.88. In 36% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does VAL score on business quality?
Valaris's overall quality score is 39 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 56 | 6.7%ROIC | 6.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 10 | -0.03xFCF / net income | 1.38x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 29 | 0.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 1.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 55 | 1.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.10x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 5.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.6 pts |
How does VAL compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas drilling closest to Valaris in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. | $11.21 | $12.77 | +13.9% | Fairly valued |
| HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc. | $38.56 | $42.52 | +10.3% | Fairly valued |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $37.66 | $36.92 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| KGS Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. | $54.33 | $56.46 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | $54.83 | $43.53 | -20.6% | Overvalued |
| AROC Archrock, Inc. | $30.33 | $27.97 | -7.8% | Fairly valued |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $24.07 | $26.15 | +8.6% | Fairly valued |
| WFRD Weatherford International plc | $79.72 | $98.54 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
When does VAL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Valaris's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How VAL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -1.2% |
| 4 May 2026 | -9.2% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +5.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +2.1% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -4.5% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +37.4% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | -0.5% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +4.3% |
Valaris at a glance
Valaris Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Gulf of America, Australia, Angola, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Floaters, Jackups, ARO, and Other.
- Market value
- $5.4B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Drilling
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -8.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.88
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Valaris on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for VAL was $67.45. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $66.15, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Valaris's valuation
Is Valaris stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, VAL reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $66.15 a share against a last close of $78.39, a gap of -15.6%.
What is VAL's fair value?
$66.15 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $43.56 to $96.88.
What price range does the model give VAL?
$55.19 to $80.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Valaris report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VAL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +37.4% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VAL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.