NASDAQ: VLY · Regional Banks
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Valley National Bancorp (VLY) at $12.82 a share. The stock last closed at $12.82, which puts the model's fair value in line with the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Valley National Bancorp.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Valley National Bancorp, the holding company for Valley National Bank, delivers an extensive array of financial services encompassing commercial, retail, insurance, and wealth management.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $12.82 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $13.19; the fair value moved -2.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.76 to $15.63, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
Faircurve's model compares Valley National Bancorp with United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI), Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH), F.N.B. Corporation (FNB), Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), Hancock Whitney Corporation (HWC), and Home Bancshares, Inc. (HOMB). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, were: 23 Jul 2026 -1.2%, 23 Apr 2026 +0.9%, 29 Jan 2026 +1.5%, 23 Oct 2025 +8.4%, 24 Jul 2025 -2.8%, 24 Apr 2025 +3.3%, 23 Jan 2025 +3.8%, 24 Oct 2024 +1.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give VLY?
The calibrated range for VLY over 63 trading days is $10.76 to $15.63. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $10.52 to $15.40. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does VLY compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Valley National Bancorp in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBSI United Bankshares, Inc. | $47.04 | $34.03 | -27.7% | Overvalued |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | $67.38 | $44.37 | -34.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | $55.28 | $50.51 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| FNB F.N.B. Corporation | $17.45 | $16.07 | -7.9% | Fairly valued |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $28.92 | $27.07 | -6.4% | Fairly valued |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $76.38 | $96.16 | +25.9% | Undervalued |
| HWC Hancock Whitney Corporation | $73.09 | $64.19 | -12.2% | Fairly valued |
| HOMB Home Bancshares, Inc. | $28.67 | $23.72 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
When does VLY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Valley National Bancorp's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How VLY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -1.2% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +0.9% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +1.5% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +8.4% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -2.8% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +3.3% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | +3.8% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +1.6% |
Valley National Bancorp at a glance
Valley National Bancorp, the holding company for Valley National Bank, delivers an extensive array of financial services encompassing commercial, retail, insurance, and wealth management.
- Market value
- $7.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -34.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.87
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Valley National Bancorp on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for VLY was $13.19. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $12.82, a change of -2.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Valley National Bancorp's valuation
Is Valley National Bancorp stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, VLY reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $12.82 a share against a last close of $12.82, a gap of 0.0%.
What is VLY's fair value?
$12.82 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $10.52 to $15.40.
What price range does the model give VLY?
$10.76 to $15.63 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Valley National Bancorp report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VLY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.4% around the report of 23 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VLY is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.