Vistra Corp. (VST) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $143.72 · Current price: $148.13 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on VST

Vistra Corp. (VST) currently trades at $148.13, positioning it as Fairly Valued according to our latest Monte Carlo simulations. Our median fair value (P50) stands at $143.72, indicating an -3.0% difference against the current market price. This assessment for VST is derived from thousands of simulated forward scenarios, suggesting that the current market price is largely reflective of its intrinsic value based on our comprehensive model. The proximity of $148.13 to $143.72 underscores a balanced risk-reward profile, where significant short-term mispricing is not immediately apparent.

How VST stacks up against Utilities

VST operates within the Utilities sector, a segment often characterized by stability. Our quality tier assessment pegs VST as "average" in terms of its operational and financial health relative to its sector peers. This average quality tier supports the "Fairly Valued" verdict, as it suggests VST is neither exceptionally strong nor weak compared to the broader Utilities landscape. The $148.13 aligns closely with the $143.72 median fair value, reinforcing that its market valuation appears consistent with its fundamental standing and sector context without a pronounced -3.0% or downside.

What this means for investors

For investors considering VST, the "Fairly Valued" verdict and -3.0% gap indicate that the current market price of $148.13 is in line with our P50 fair value of $143.72. While this suggests limited immediate arbitrage opportunity based on the median outcome, deeper analysis of the Monte Carlo distribution reveals the range of potential outcomes. Our simulations encompass various bear and bull scenarios, providing a more granular understanding beyond just the P50. To explore the full bear-case (P10) and bull-case (P90) distributions and track VST's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.