NASDAQ: WDC · Computer Hardware
Western Digital (WDC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Western Digital (WDC) at $463.63 a share. The stock last closed at $415.29, which puts the model's fair value 11.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Western Digital Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Western Digital Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets a broad range of data storage devices and software solutions across the United States, China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the rest of Asia, serving an international market. The company operates in the Technology and Computer Hardware sectors.
Faircurve's model, on 3 Oct 2026, found a fair value of $463.63 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.9% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $467.92. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $346.03 to $561.81, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for Western Digital Corporation is 57 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE), Sandisk Corporation (SNDK), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), Everpure, Inc. (P), NetApp, Inc. (NTAP), and HP Inc. (HPQ). The stock moved -17.7% on 5 Aug 2026, +4.5% on 30 Apr 2026, -10.5% on 29 Jan 2026, +6.2% on 30 Oct 2025, +11.4% on 30 Jul 2025, +8.2% on 30 Apr 2025, +4.6% on 29 Jan 2025, and +4.3% on 24 Oct 2024, around its last 8 earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give WDC?
The calibrated range for WDC over 63 trading days is $346.03 to $561.81. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WDC's own options imply (69% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $315.97 to $672.14. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WDC score on business quality?
Western Digital's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 51.4%ROIC | 23.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 3 | 0.34xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 86 | 35.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 26.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 88 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 64 | -0.06xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.33x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 16 | 13.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.2 pts |
How does WDC compare with similar companies?
The companies in computer hardware closest to Western Digital in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $848.99 | $817.51 | -3.7% | Low evidence grade |
| HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $69.33 | $71.62 | +3.3% | Fairly valued |
| SNDK Sandisk Corporation | $1,719.99 | $2,394.77 | +39.2% | Undervalued |
| ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $207.35 | $192.12 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $562.52 | $551.06 | -2.0% | Low evidence grade |
| P Everpure, Inc. | $140.14 | $125.51 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $226.27 | $204.03 | -9.8% | Fairly valued |
| HPQ HP Inc. | $32.12 | $37.06 | +15.4% | Undervalued |
When does WDC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Western Digital's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. WDC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.9% over one month.
On 2 Oct 2026 WDC moved 10.2% in one session, against the 4.5% a day that options had priced: 2.3 times the implied size.
How WDC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -17.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +4.5% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -10.5% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +6.2% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +11.4% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +8.2% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +4.6% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +4.3% |
Western Digital at a glance
Western Digital Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets a broad range of data storage devices and software solutions across the United States, China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the rest of Asia, serving an international market.
- Market value
- $143.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $21.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +48.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 3.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Western Digital on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WDC was $467.92. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $463.63, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Western Digital's valuation
Is Western Digital stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WDC reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $463.63 a share against a last close of $415.29, a gap of +11.6%.
What is WDC's fair value?
$463.63 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $315.97 to $672.14.
What price range does the model give WDC?
$346.03 to $561.81 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Western Digital report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WDC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.7% around the report of 5 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WDC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.