Faircurve Global Market Pulse — Friday, 28 August 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Nvidia rose 8.74% in its first session after guiding to US$108 billion of revenue next quarter, and Salesforce rose 22.58% after reporting earnings 80% above the analyst forecast and raising guidance. The reports contradicted the week’s two worries, that chip demand is slowing and that AI will take software’s revenue. The S&P 500 added 0.71% to 7,730.11 with only technology rising among the eleven sectors. Yields rose 1 to 2 basis points from one year out ahead of the Federal Reserve chair’s first Jackson Hole keynote tonight. The Bank of Korea raised its rate to 3.00% and Seoul rose 1.53%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Nvidia’s 8.74% rise was its largest one-day gain in at least a year and added about US$444 billion of market value. The Nasdaq led the four indices, up 1.57% to 26,541.35. The S&P 500 rose 0.71% to 7,730.11 and sits 0.88% below its 13 August record close. The Dow shows how narrow the day was. Salesforce added US$46.43 a share and Nvidia US$18.32, the other twenty-eight members lost a combined US$47.13, and the index still rose 0.20% to 53,569.44. Six of the thirty rose. The Russell 2000 added 0.28% to 3,014.34 and the VIX fell 4.60% to 14.51.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 27 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology rose 3.16% and the other ten sectors fell, the narrowest advance an eleven-sector table allows. Consumer staples finished last, down 1.38%, and both consumer sectors dropped more than 1%. The retailers and restaurants inside them fell with the group: McDonald’s lost 2.57%, Home Depot 1.86% and Walmart 1.64%. Health care lost 1.13%. Energy slipped 0.22% and keeps the 2026 lead at 39.32%, with technology closing the gap at 31.01%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Thursday 27 August closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Thursday 20 August and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. All ten markets traded on both reference days. Asian and European markets closed before New York’s Thursday afternoon, so Seoul’s close reflects the Bank of Korea decision and Nvidia’s report, while Europe closed before most of the New York rise.

Seoul rose 1.53% to 6,912.37 after the Bank of Korea raised its policy rate a quarter point to 3.00%, the move the market expected. The close cleared 6,813.34, the 13 August level this letter has tracked since 17 August, after three sessions under it. A 64.03% rise for 2026 keeps Korea first among the ten markets, ahead of Taiwan’s 58.73%. Shanghai added 1.13%. In Europe, Paris lost 1.68%, the most of the ten markets, after French jobless claims rose by 21,500 in July, roughly twice the expected increase.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Every yield from one year to thirty rose 1 to 2 basis points in a quiet session before the Federal Reserve chair speaks at Jackson Hole tonight. The two-year closed at 4.20%, the ten-year at 4.67% and the thirty-year at 5.19%. The three-month bill eased 1 basis point. The thirty-year has spent three sessions below 5.20%, at 5.17%, 5.18% and 5.19%, a basis point higher each day. The check set on 20 August, when the Treasury announced enlarged bond buying, runs its last session tonight. With one basis point of room, either outcome is thin evidence. The firmer test arrives when the purchases begin on 9 September. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields held at 47 basis points. A seven-year auction sold at 4.512%, above the prior 4.473%. Going into the speech, short-term yields still rise with each maturity out to two years, which prices no rate cut.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Credit narrowed across all four tiers on Wednesday, the latest session FRED has published, so the relief predates Thursday’s rally. Investment grade tightened 1 basis point to 80, BBB 1 to 99 and high yield 3 to 267. The CCC and lower tier narrowed 8 to 1,031. For 2026 that lowest tier is still 146 basis points wider while the three above it sit within 14 basis points of where they started the year.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Wednesday 26 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Tuesday 25 August close, one-week changes the Wednesday 19 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed the UTC day at US$80,524.06, up 1.90% on the day and 10.29% higher on the week, its first close above the six-day range topped at US$79,026. Bitcoin stands 16.2% above its 19 August close, the day before the Treasury announced enlarged bond buying. No other dated event fits the move as well. Solana rose 7.73%, the largest of the three coins, and Ether 0.50%. For the year bitcoin is still down 7.97%, Ether 15.08% and Solana 11.63%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 27 August. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Wednesday 26 August and the one-week change with Thursday 20 August. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP revises recent crypto closes, so exact levels may still move a fraction. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

WTI rose 1.58% to US$83.53 and Brent 0.77% to US$88.52, a partial recovery in a week both lost about 5% on progress in the Iran-Oman talks. Both remain more than 45% higher for the year. Natural gas added 2.53% and is 6.62% higher on the week. Silver rose 2.07% to US$69.43 and gold 0.23% to US$4,664. Copper slipped 0.15%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. The Federal Reserve chair’s Jackson Hole keynote is Friday morning US time, Friday evening in Singapore. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced.

The Federal Reserve chair delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote tonight Singapore time, with the thirty-year yield one basis point under this letter’s 5.20% line. Chicago PMI and the final August Michigan sentiment reading follow tonight. Next week ends with August payrolls on Friday, where the consensus expects a 45,000 gain after July’s 23,000 fall. ISM manufacturing and July job openings land Tuesday, the ADP employment reading Wednesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Only proof of AI revenue got paid. Nvidia, which books the AI orders, and Salesforce, which showed AI products lifting sales, rose 8.74% and 22.58%. The sixteen other chip-complex suppliers split nine up and seven down, and three of the five largest AI spenders fell. The theme alone no longer moves a stock.

2 · The advance was narrow by every measure on the page. The index table, the sector table and the Dow arithmetic all describe the same session: a handful of companies rose and most stocks fell. A reading this concentrated carries information about those few companies and very little about demand across the economy.

3 · Nvidia narrowed a channel this letter flagged. Yesterday’s edition discounted the outlook because Nvidia routes US$18 billion into its customers, which blurs outside demand. On Thursday the company paused a separate financing program that gave cloud providers credit support for a revenue share. The direct investments are now the channel to watch.

4 · The risk in tonight’s speech is a hint at a rise, not a cut. Boston Fed president Collins said an increase would be warranted if inflation disappoints, and short-maturity yields price no cut. The speech lands the same evening the thirty-year’s 5.20% test ends, so one session answers two questions.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The pattern looks like money moving within the market, so this letter sets a test. The index rose on Thursday only because one sector did, and the sectors that fell furthest sell to households. The week’s data showed the other side spending: the July goods trade deficit widened to US$118.8 billion against a US$99 billion forecast as importers stocked up, and jobless claims stayed low at 203,000. Prices alone cannot show whether new money entered or old money moved, so the check is set instead. If more sectors rise than fall over the next two sessions while the index holds, Thursday’s gain is spreading. If technology stays the only riser, the index is resting on a single trade and the other ten sectors offer no offset.

Monday’s test resolved, and the answer was more concentrated than the question. The test asked whether the seventeen suppliers would rise more than the five buyers once Nvidia reported. Instead the gain concentrated in Nvidia itself, with suppliers split and buyers mostly lower. Investors rewarded the company that holds the orders and no one else. On the thirty-year, tonight deserves modest weight. The level has climbed a basis point in each of the three sessions below the line. A fourth close below 5.20% would add one basis point of evidence for reading the buyback, rather than Federal Reserve policy, as what holds long yields down. A close above would end the streak without refuting it. The September purchases will say more.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 28 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Thursday 27 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.