Walmart Inc. (WMT) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $96.37 · Current price: $111.84 · Verdict: Fairly Valued
The Verdict on WMT
Our Monte Carlo simulations indicate that Walmart Inc (WMT) is Fairly Valued at its current price of $111.84. The median fair value (P50) derived from thousands of forward-looking scenarios stands at $96.37, implying an -13.8% gap versus the current market price. This places WMT squarely in our "Fairly Valued" category, suggesting its present valuation reflects its underlying operational and financial health.
How WMT stacks up against peers
WMT exhibits an average quality tier when assessed against its sector peers, a factor that is incorporated into our fair value modeling. While its operational and financial health are robust, they align with the typical profile for a company of its scale within its industry. This average quality tier supports the $96.37 fair value, anchoring it within a reasonable range given the competitive landscape and WMT's current market price of $111.84.
What this means for investors
For investors, the current valuation of WMT at $111.84, coupled with a median fair value of $96.37 and an -13.8% potential, points to a balanced risk-reward profile. While there isn't significant implied upside based on our Monte Carlo analysis, the "Fairly Valued" verdict suggests current prices reflect fundamentals. A downside scenario would see WMT trading below its $96.37, while a bull case could push prices higher. To see the full bear and bull distribution and track WMT's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMT overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, Walmart Inc (WMT) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued. Its current price of $111.84 is closely aligned with our median fair value estimate of $96.37.
What is the bear case and bull case for WMT?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, which includes our bear (P10) and bull (P90) price targets for WMT, along with the probability of achieving upside, is available with a free FairCurve account. We do not provide specific dollar values here as they are subscriber-exclusive.
How does FairCurve calculate WMT's fair value?
FairCurve calculates WMT's fair value using a sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation that models thousands of forward economic and company-specific scenarios. This robust approach helps us determine a comprehensive range of potential valuations.
How can I track WMT's fair value as it changes?
You can add WMT to your free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates. Our system automatically re-values WMT instantly when new earnings or other significant fundamental data are released.