Faircurve Global Market Pulse — Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Iran and Oman returned to talks over the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and both crude benchmarks fell close to 4%. Consumer confidence fell to 89.4 and July new home sales missed at 607,000. With oil cheaper too, Treasury yields fell at every point from three months to thirty years, the ten-year by 6 basis points to 4.64%. Stocks rose on the relief. The S&P 500 gained 0.30% to 7,675.83 and technology led the eleven sectors a day after finishing last. Fifteen of the seventeen artificial-intelligence hardware suppliers that fell together on Monday rose. July core inflation lands Wednesday morning and Nvidia reports after the close.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

All four US indices rose, the Nasdaq leading at 0.66%. The S&P 500 added 0.30% to 7,675.83, the Dow 0.30% to 53,577.40 and the Russell 2000 0.50% to 3,010.02. Goldman Sachs added US$22.60 a share, more than the next three Dow contributors combined, and McDonald’s took off US$4.44, the largest drag. Nvidia rose 2.19% to 213.05, its first gain in eight sessions. The VIX fell 2.46% to 15.46, back under its 50-day average of 16.69. The S&P 500 stands 1.58% below its 13 August record close.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Tuesday 25 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Tuesday inverted Monday’s sector table. Technology, the only sector to lose more than 1% on Monday, led at 0.94%. Consumer staples, Monday’s best, fell 1.06%. Six sectors rose, four fell and materials closed unchanged. Energy lost 1.66%, the most, and its fall had a clear cause in the oil price. The rest of the flip had no earnings or data behind it. Energy still leads 2026 at 38.81% with technology second at 26.23%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Tuesday 25 August closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Tuesday 18 August and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. All ten markets traded on both reference days. Asian and European markets close before the US afternoon, so the later part of Tuesday’s New York session is not in this table.

Seoul rose 0.68% to 6,742.74 and still closed under 6,813.34, a second consecutive close below the marker this letter set at the 13 August close, so the break is confirmed. Taipei rose 0.91% and Tokyo 0.50%. Singapore led the ten markets at 0.97%. Frankfurt gained 0.61%, Paris slipped 0.16% and Hong Kong was little changed. Korea remains 2026’s leading market at 60.00%. Taiwan follows at 55.95%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Soft survey data and cheaper oil pulled the whole curve down together. The two-year and seven-year led, each down 7 basis points, the two-year to 4.17%. The ten-year fell 6 to 4.64% and the thirty-year 6 to 5.17%. The two-to-ten-year gap widened 1 basis point to 47. The thirty-year now sits below the 5.20% level this letter flagged on 20 August as the test of the Treasury’s enlarged bond buying, which starts 9 September. Tuesday proves little about the plan, because the whole curve fell together on soft data rather than long maturities falling alone. Stanley Druckenmiller argued in print the same day that the plan will fail. Money still costs more at each longer maturity out to two years, from 3.86% at three months to 4.17%, so no rate cut is priced.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Credit spreads barely moved while Treasury yields fell. Investment grade held at 81 basis points and BBB at 100, both unchanged on the day. High yield narrowed 1 to 269. The CCC and lower tier, the extra yield charged to the riskiest borrowers, eased 1 to 1,036 and is 18 basis points wider than a week earlier. For the year CCC is 151 basis points wider while the three tiers above are close to flat. Only the weakest tier pays more than it did in December. These readings are Monday’s, the latest FRED has published.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Monday 24 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Friday 21 August close, one-week changes the Monday 17 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed the UTC day at US$78,400.08, down 0.74%, and holds a 21.21% gain over the week. Washington supplied the catalysts. The president said regulators are working to bring Hyperliquid, a large offshore trading venue, onshore. The Senate votes first on the digital-asset market structure bill on 15 September, so the policy support has a date attached. Ether slipped 1.80% and Solana 2.76%, and all three remain lower for the year, bitcoin by 10.40%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Tuesday 25 August. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Monday 24 August and the one-week change with Tuesday 18 August. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP revises recent crypto closes, so exact levels may still move a fraction. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Iran and Oman returned to talks over the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent fell 3.89% to US$88.58 while WTI lost 3.12% to US$82.36. The fall came on the talks even as Washington widened its sanctions package to reach Iran’s gold, shipping and technology trade. Gold closed 0.07% lower at US$4,694.50, a move too small to carry a signal, with less war risk and lower yields pulling in opposite directions. Copper rose 1.65% and is 18.16% higher this year. Both crudes still hold 2026 gains above 40%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. The Jackson Hole symposium opens on Thursday 27 August and the Federal Reserve chair’s keynote follows on Friday. Nvidia’s earnings consensus is FMP-sourced (US$2.09 per share, after Wednesday’s close). Japan’s August CPI prints Thursday evening US time, Friday morning in Tokyo.

The prices set on Tuesday get tested on the dates below. July core PCE prices, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, land Wednesday at 08:30 New York time, consensus 0.2% on the month and 3.3% on the year. Nvidia reports after that afternoon’s close, consensus earnings US$2.09 a share, so the reaction trades on Thursday. The Bank of Korea decides Thursday, Jackson Hole opens the same day, and the Fed chair speaks Friday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The rebound came before the evidence. Monday’s four steepest artificial-intelligence fallers, Seagate, Micron, Super Micro and Western Digital, were all among Tuesday’s seven biggest risers, led by Super Micro at 9.35%. No new demand fact arrived, and three of the four still sit below Friday’s close. The recovery came a day early.

2 · Diplomacy moved oil where sanctions could not. Washington widened sanctions beyond Iranian oil to gold, shipping and technology, and crude still fell close to 4% on renewed Hormuz talks. Energy stocks were the day’s worst sector. For a second session, holders of oil assets priced the talks and discounted the threat.

3 · The cost of money fell before the inflation test. Yields fell everywhere on weak survey data and cheaper oil, not on evidence about inflation itself. The two-year, at 4.17%, has 13 basis points of room under the 4.30% level this letter set as the sign of a hot inflation reading.

4 · Korea rose with the chip rebound and still confirmed its break. Seoul gained 0.68% alongside Taipei’s 0.91% as the supplier bounce reached Asia, yet finished under 6,813.34 for a second consecutive session. A market that rises and stays below its old level has settled into a lower range. The Bank of Korea decides Thursday.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Tuesday removed pressure without adding facts, and that raises the price of reassurance. The freshest chip news of the day cut against Nvidia: benchmark results showed a customer’s in-house chip, built with Broadcom, beating Nvidia’s flagship on efficiency in some inference work. Nvidia rose anyway, and Broadcom, the partner on that chip, was one of only two suppliers to fall. When prices move against the one fresh chip fact, investors are resizing their holdings while their views wait for evidence. The practical effect is that Monday’s cheap entry is gone. The seventeen suppliers meet Wednesday’s report at higher prices than the ones that expressed doubt, so an outlook that merely matches expectations now tests a fuller valuation.

Three dated tests sit within the next three sessions. First, core PCE at 0.2% or below keeps the two-year near 4.17%. A higher reading that pushes it toward 4.30% would make the cost of money the story again. Second, Nvidia’s revenue outlook. If Monday’s fall was doubt about volume, a strong guide should lift the seventeen suppliers more than the five buyers on Thursday. A uniform move would mark Monday as noise. Third, the thirty-year now sits below the 5.20% line. Holding under it through Friday would show the announcement alone can hold down long yields, the test this letter set on 20 August.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 26 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Tuesday 25 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.