NASDAQ: AVGO · Semiconductors
Broadcom (AVGO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Broadcom (AVGO) at $445.16 a share. The stock last closed at $355.14, which puts the model's fair value 25.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Broadcom Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Broadcom Inc. is a prominent global technology enterprise focused on the innovation, development, and supply of advanced semiconductor solutions and critical infrastructure software. The company operates in Technology, specifically Semiconductors.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $445.16 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +0.7% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which was $442.25. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $323.14 to $415.25, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence as Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 67 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Broadcom Inc. with Micron Technology, Inc., Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., ASML Holding N.V., Intel Corp., NVIDIA Corporation, Lam Research Corporation, and Applied Materials, Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves, ignoring direction, was 8.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AVGO?
The calibrated range for AVGO over 63 trading days is $323.14 to $415.25. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AVGO's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $326.47 to $598.04. In 72% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AVGO score on business quality?
Broadcom's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 85 | 30.1%ROIC | 11.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 1.03xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 77 | 23.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 34.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 72 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 35 | 0.68xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 58 | 3.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.6 pts |
How does AVGO compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Broadcom in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $1,074.89 | $1,491.86 | +38.8% | Undervalued |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $633.91 | $576.12 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | $1,867.31 | $2,186.72 | +17.1% | Undervalued |
| INTC Intel Corp. | $119.33 | $111.02 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $233.95 | $262.75 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $347.49 | $372.26 | +7.1% | Fairly valued |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $540.04 | $622.93 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $307.49 | $268.33 | -12.7% | Data under review |
When does AVGO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Broadcom's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AVGO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.3% over one month.
How AVGO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | -3.4% |
| 3 Jun 2026 | -13.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | +6.0% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | -12.8% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | +10.7% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | -5.4% |
| 6 Mar 2025 | +1.8% |
| 12 Dec 2024 | +22.7% |
Broadcom at a glance
Broadcom Inc. is a prominent global technology enterprise focused on the innovation, development, and supply of advanced semiconductor solutions and critical infrastructure software.
- Market value
- $1.69T
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $168.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +65.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 27
- Beta to the US market
- 2.16
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Broadcom on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AVGO was $442.25. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $445.16, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Broadcom's valuation
Is Broadcom stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AVGO reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $445.16 a share against a last close of $355.14, a gap of +25.3%.
What is AVGO's fair value?
$445.16 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $326.47 to $598.04.
What price range does the model give AVGO?
$323.14 to $415.25 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Broadcom report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AVGO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.7% around the report of 12 Dec 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AVGO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.