Global Market Pulse — Wednesday, Sep 9, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Brent rose 3.23% to US$99.39 on Tuesday after Yemeni rebels hit Saudi oil facilities on Monday and the United States and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. American stocks and bonds moved far less than oil did. The S&P 500 fell 0.58% and the Nasdaq 0.32%. The Dow fell 1.18%, and Amgen alone, down 10.08% on a rival’s failed trial, supplied 41.8% of that dollar fall. The ten-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.80%, its highest close of 2026, and the two-year rose 2 to 4.39%, matching its high. Gold fell 1.70%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Dow’s 1.18% fall was mostly one stock: Amgen fell 10.08% after Novartis said a cholesterol drug of the same type as Amgen’s failed a late-stage trial. That stock supplied 41.8% of the Dow’s dollar loss. Without it the Dow would have fallen about 0.68%, near the S&P 500’s 0.58%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.52%, less than the S&P 500 and more than the Nasdaq’s 0.32%, so small companies were not singled out. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 1.30% while Micron fell 1.61% to US$1,000.26, below the US$1,016.59 close yesterday’s letter watched. The VIX rose 8.19% to 15.72.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Tuesday 8 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Energy rose 1.11%, about a third as much as Brent, and energy shares are unchanged on a week in which Brent rose 5.01%. Two readings fit: equity investors treat the oil rise as temporary, or the selling that took eight of eleven sectors lower held them back. Utilities rose 0.86% and technology 0.32%. Health care fell 2.52%, the largest fall, as Novartis’s trial failures hit drugmakers broadly, Amgen most. Financials fell 1.38%. Energy leads 2026 at 44.87%, with technology second at 30.49%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Tuesday 8 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Monday 7 September, one-week moves with Tuesday 1 September and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Tuesday data: China August exports up 25.0% on the year and a trade surplus of US$119.1 billion, both matching consensus; Taiwan August inflation 2.04% on the year against 2.3% expected; German July trade surplus 21.3 billion euros against 16 billion expected; US NFIB small-business optimism 98.7 against 99.3 expected; US three-year note auction 4.474% against 4.291% in August.

Tokyo fell 1.70%, the largest fall in the table, as the yen strengthened, and Seoul fell 0.58% after Monday’s memory-chip rally. Taipei fell 0.47%, Singapore 0.43% and Hong Kong 0.38%. Shanghai rose 0.20% after August trade data matched forecasts. Europe closed almost flat while New York was already lower, the STOXX 600 down 0.05%. Two of ten markets rose. Tokyo is the only market in the table more than 1% lower on the week, at 1.43%. Seoul keeps the year’s lead at 65.03% over Taipei’s 62.64%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The ten-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.80%, its highest close of 2026, and the two-year rose 2 to 4.39%, matching the high of 1 and 2 September. The three-month, five-year and seven-year rose most, 3 each. The three-year was the only maturity to fall, by 1. The gap between two- and ten-year yields held at 41 basis points and the two-to-thirty-year gap narrowed 1 to 86. Oil was not the only reason to sell bonds. The odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise this month have climbed since Friday’s jobs report, and Britain sold long-dated debt on Tuesday at a yield not seen since 1998. Short yields still rise with maturity, so no cut is priced. The three-year auction sold at 4.474%, 18 basis points above August. Today’s ten-year sale is the next test of whether buyers take 4.80% without a discount.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The credit table shows Monday 7 September, one business day in arrears, so Tuesday’s yield highs are not yet in it. Friday, the jobs-report day, widened CCC-rated spreads 3 basis points to 1,054 and high-yield spreads 3 to 268, while BBB narrowed 1 and investment grade held at 81. Three basis points is below the CCC tier’s median daily move this year, 5, so Friday did not settle whether the weakest borrowers read the report as safety or the oil as cost. All four tiers are wider on the week, CCC by 13 to 1,055. Tuesday’s reading, out tonight, is the cleaner test: CCC above 1,065, two typical days of widening, would say 2026-high yields are reaching the weakest borrowers.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Monday 7 September close, the latest observation FRED had published at this letter’s deadline; FRED posts one business day in arrears. One-day changes reference Friday 4 September, one-week changes Monday 31 August, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Friday 4 September itself: IG 81 unchanged, BBB 99 from 100, HY 268 from 265, CCC 1,054 from 1,051. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 0.42% to US$78,757.99 on Tuesday, more than the Nasdaq’s 0.32%, and did not rise on the fighting. On each of the three sessions this month when the two-year yield rose, bitcoin fell more than the Nasdaq: 1.48% against 1.03%, 1.96% against 0.29%, and Tuesday’s pair. Ether rose 0.26% to US$2,496.10 and Solana closed unchanged at US$103.79. All three are higher than a week ago, bitcoin by 1.76%, and bitcoin is 9.99% lower for the year. Friday’s core inflation reading is bitcoin’s test: above 2.4% should cost it more than the Nasdaq.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Tuesday 8 September. The one-day change compares with Monday 7 September, the one-week change with Tuesday 1 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP has since revised Monday’s bitcoin close to 79,091.97 from the 79,202.39 printed in yesterday’s letter, and revised Tuesday’s closes four times between 08:05 and 09:10 Singapore time (bitcoin 78,449 to 78,758); the table carries the last pull. Solana’s Tuesday row equalled Monday’s at the last pull. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent settled at US$99.39, up 3.23% from Friday and 1.50% from Monday’s session, its highest settlement since 23 July. WTI settled at US$94.25, up 3.03%. Gold fell 1.70% to US$4,400.50, its second fall in a row, so it is not acting as protection against the war. A fall that size is not explained by a 2 basis point yield move. Selling to raise cash after two days of equity losses is the other candidate. Today tests it: gold rising while yields hold would say cash, not rates. Gold falling again with yields flat would leave the cause open. Copper rose 1.41% and silver 0.38%. Natural gas fell 1.98%. The table measures Tuesday against Friday because the Monday holiday session had no settlement on the American exchanges.

Commodity rows are Tuesday 8 September settlements from FMP. The one-day change compares with Friday 4 September’s settlement because Monday 7 September was a US holiday: CME, where WTI, the metals and natural gas trade, published no Monday settlement, and FMP’s Monday rows for those contracts were revised or duplicated after the fact. Brent, an ICE contract, did settle Monday at US$97.92, so Tuesday’s rise from Monday alone was 1.50%. One-week changes compare with Tuesday 1 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The August consumer inflation report lands Friday 11 September, the last major reading before the Federal Reserve meets the following week. Federal Reserve officials are in their pre-meeting quiet period.

China reports August consumer prices this morning, consensus 0.8% after 0.5%, and the Treasury sells ten-year notes at 13:00 Eastern. Thursday brings the European Central Bank, where consensus expects the deposit rate to rise to 2.50% from 2.25%, and American producer prices, consensus 0.4% on the month after 0.0%. The thirty-year auction follows at 13:00. Friday’s consumer price report, consensus 3.4% overall and 2.4% core, is the last major reading before the Federal Reserve meets the following week.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The three-year sale was absorbed. The three-year was the only one of the twelve maturities this letter tracks whose yield fell on the day it was auctioned, which reads as buyers taking the supply.

2 · One trial, not the war, moved the Dow. Amgen’s 10.08% fall after Novartis’s cholesterol trial failed made the Dow the worst index and led health care lower. The S&P 500’s 0.58% is the better measure of the day.

3 · Energy shares have not risen with crude. Energy is flat on a week Brent rose 5.01%. Either the shares catch up or crude gives back. Brent above US$100 with energy still flat by Friday would say the shares are wrong.

4 · The tanker strikes came after the close. The United States said after Tuesday’s close that it had destroyed five Iranian tankers. Tuesday’s prices carry the Saudi attack and the weekend, not that.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Tuesday looked worse than it was, and the parts that were bad are the durable ones. The headline Dow fall was one drug stock. The 2026-high yields were made of 2 basis points. Oil moved most, up 3.23%, and gold fell 1.70% rather than rising on the fighting. What is durable is the level. The two- and ten-year have not closed higher this year, and Friday’s inflation report and the Federal Reserve meeting the week after decide whether they go higher still.

Three first readings arrive before Thursday’s open, and Friday’s inflation report follows. Crude’s settlement today is the first to include the tanker strikes. The ten-year sale is the first at a 2026-high yield, and a result above the 1pm market yield would matter more than Tuesday’s 2 basis points did. Tonight’s credit reading is the first to include Tuesday. Friday’s core inflation reading, consensus 2.4%, then decides the Federal Reserve’s choice the week after.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 9 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). Figures reference the Tuesday 8 September 2026 session; commodity one-day changes are measured from Friday 4 September settlements. Not investment advice. For informational use only.