NASDAQ: AMGN · General Drug Manufacturers
Amgen (AMGN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Amgen (AMGN) at $448.86 a share. The stock last closed at $403.04, which puts the model's fair value 11.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Amgen Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Amgen Inc. is a global biotechnology leader, established in 1980 and headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and delivering human medicines.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $448.86 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $432.79, so the fair value moved +3.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $374.09 to $459.14, built around the price from the stock's own options and calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026); ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The business scored 67 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its quality factors include Profitability 74, Earnings quality 90, Growth quality 62, Capital discipline 39, Balance sheet 26, and Stability 81. The model compares Amgen with Gilead Sciences, Inc., Pfizer Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, AbbVie Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly and Company, and Biogen Inc. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AMGN?
The calibrated range for AMGN over 63 trading days is $374.09 to $459.14. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AMGN's own options imply (29% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $367.36 to $538.19. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AMGN score on business quality?
Amgen's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 74 | 19.5%ROIC | 16.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 1.16xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 62 | 9.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 26 | 2.62xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.60x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 81 | 2.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.6 pts |
How does AMGN compare with similar companies?
The companies in general drug manufacturers closest to Amgen in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $144.74 | $142.59 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | $27.80 | $31.76 | +14.2% | Fairly valued |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $144.30 | $125.73 | -12.9% | Fairly valued |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $61.15 | $71.30 | +16.6% | Undervalued |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $262.82 | $271.97 | +3.5% | Fairly valued |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $256.03 | $217.11 | -15.2% | Overvalued |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $1,142.85 | $947.76 | -17.1% | Overvalued |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | $219.88 | $236.19 | +7.4% | Fairly valued |
All general drug manufacturer stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AMGN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Amgen's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AMGN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.3% over one month.
How AMGN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +7.6% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -2.4% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +6.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +8.0% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -5.7% |
| 1 May 2025 | -3.3% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +6.6% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +1.3% |
Amgen at a glance
Amgen Inc., established in 1980 and headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, is a global biotechnology leader focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and delivering groundbreaking human medicines.
- Market value
- $223.8B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- General Drug Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $40.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 20
- Beta to the US market
- 0.44
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Amgen on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AMGN was $432.79. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $448.86, a change of +3.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Amgen's valuation
Is Amgen stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AMGN reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $448.86 a share against a last close of $403.04, a gap of +11.4%.
What is AMGN's fair value?
$448.86 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $367.36 to $538.19.
What price range does the model give AMGN?
$374.09 to $459.14 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Amgen report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AMGN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.0% around the report of 4 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AMGN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.