Global Market Pulse — Friday, Oct 09, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Reports that the US may strike Iran sent oil sharply higher on Thursday, and chip shares fell after Samsung’s profit missed forecasts. Brent gained 4.07% to US$104.28. Energy shares rose 2.97% and technology shares fell 1.79%. The Nasdaq ended 1.25% lower and the S&P 500 0.47% lower. The ten-year Treasury yield eased 6 basis points to 5.22%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Chipmakers drove the fall in the large indices. A chipmaker fund dropped 2.84%, and the Nasdaq trailed the Dow by 1.35 percentage points. The Dow closed 0.10% higher and the Russell 2000 0.03% higher. The volatility index rose 0.33 points to 15.41.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 8 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Eight sectors rose and three fell, with energy first and technology last. Energy added 2.97% and staples 2.11%, on the day PepsiCo beat profit forecasts but cut its outlook. Health care lost 0.39% and utilities 0.19%. Over the week energy is 4.05% higher and technology is flat.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Thursday 8 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. Friday’s Asian sessions were still trading at publication and are not used. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session. One-week moves compare with the close as of Thursday 1 October. Hong Kong was shut on 1 October, so its week compares with Wednesday 30 September. *Shanghai reopened on 8 October after the Golden Week holiday, so its one-day and one-week moves both compare with 30 September. FMP’s 8 October rows for the STOXX 600, FTSE 100 and TAIEX carry no volume. The closes are shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close. The euro closed Thursday at US$1.1211 (FMP), 0.14% higher on the day and 4.55% lower this year. It closed Wednesday at US$1.1196.

Seoul and Taipei fell after Samsung’s results. The KOSPI fell 2.62% and is 4.95% lower on the week, and the TAIEX lost 0.99%. The Nikkei fell 1.42% on chip and metal shares. Singapore’s Straits Times fell 3.49%, a drop no news report explains. Shanghai returned from its holiday 0.79% lower. Europe also fell, the STOXX 600 by 0.75%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Strong demand at Thursday’s 30-year bond sale cut long yields, while yields of a year or less rose. The thirty-year yield dropped 7 basis points to 5.60% and the ten-year 6 to 5.22%. The two-year slipped 2 to 4.75%. The one-month bill gained 7 to 4.14% and the one-year 2 to 4.44%. The gap from two to ten years narrowed 4 to 47 basis points, and from two to thirty years 5 to 85.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Spreads on CCC-rated bonds widened again on Wednesday, the day the Russell 2000 lost 1.31%. The CCC and lower spread rose 15 basis points to 1,229, 50 above a week earlier. High-yield spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on lower-rated company bonds, widened 6 to 309. Investment-grade spreads narrowed 1 to 82.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Wednesday 7 October, so this block does not include the Thursday 8 October session the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 6 October, one-week changes with 30 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points. Daily high yield readings from 30 September: 312, 324, 310, 312, 303 and 309. CCC & Lower: 1,179, 1,215, 1,202, 1,211, 1,214 and 1,229. Year-end 2025: high yield 281, CCC & Lower 885.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 1.90% to US$81,692.79 as technology shares dropped. It is 4.50% lower over two days and 6.63% lower this year. Ether dropped 3.88% and solana 5.77%. About half a billion dollars left US spot bitcoin funds in a single day recently.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 8 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Wednesday 7 October and the one-week change with Thursday 1 October, the same window as the share tables. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Oil rose while copper, silver and natural gas fell. Brent gained 4.07% and American crude 3.64% to US$91.49. Copper lost 1.22% and silver 1.44%. Gold edged up 0.39% to US$4,157.00. Natural gas eased 1.09% but is 6.77% higher on the week.

Commodity rows are Thursday 8 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 7 October, one-week changes with Thursday 1 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its one-week change compares like with like. Its year-to-date change spans contract changes. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$12.79 on Thursday, US$11.92 on Wednesday and US$9.44 a week earlier. Silver settled at 59.424, copper at 6.5685 and natural gas at 3.168. All are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. For the three company results, prior is the second-quarter actual. The US bond market is shut on Monday 12 October. The stock market is open. Tokyo is shut on Monday 12 October. Thursday’s results (FMP economics calendar actuals): initial jobless claims 197,000 against 200,000 expected; continuing claims 1.716 million; Atlanta Fed third-quarter growth estimate 3.6%, from 3.7%; 30-year bond auction 5.618%. Wednesday: 10-year note auction 5.30%; US crude stocks fell 3.19 million barrels against a 1.7 million rise expected. Fed’s Collins speaks on Friday and Waller on Tuesday.

Wednesday’s US consumer price report is the key release of the coming week. Economists expect prices 3.6% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4%. Retail sales and producer prices follow on Thursday. JPMorgan Chase reports on Tuesday and TSMC on Thursday. Singapore’s central bank sets policy on Wednesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Strike talk and a pause. Reports said the White House asked for options to strike Iran before the 3 November elections. President Trump then said the US would not strike again until after the vote. The US Treasury sanctioned 17 more Iran-linked tankers.

2 · Less oil from several places. Chevron and Shell cut output in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Isaias grew stronger. Ukraine said it hit Russia’s biggest refinery. US crude stocks dropped 3.19 million barrels in the week to 2 October, when a 1.7 million rise was expected.

3 · AI income and AI trade. A report said OpenAI’s yearly recurring revenue is lower than earlier indicated. The World Trade Organization lifted its 2026 forecast for goods trade growth to 3.9% from 1.9%, on spending on AI-related goods.

4 · Fed minutes and Waller. All 19 Fed officials supported the September rate rise, and several favour another this year. Governor Waller said more rises are needed. Expectations for the next rise moved to December from October.

5 · Mortgages and prices. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose for a seventh week, to 7.40% from 7.28%. Americans expect 3.9% inflation over the next year, from 3.6%, a New York Fed survey showed. Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Investors now expect more Fed rises within a year, and fewer beyond it than on Wednesday. The one-year yield rose 2 basis points and the two-year fell 2, narrowing the gap between them by 4 to 31. Faircurve reads this as oil raising near-term inflation worries.

Oil kept its gain after the pause remark. President Trump spoke before oil settled, yet Brent closed 4.07% higher and its premium over American crude rose US$0.87 to US$12.79. Faircurve reads this as prices resting on supply already lost, not only on the strike threat.

The index fall came from its largest companies. An equal-weighted S&P 500 fund rose 0.60%, beating the index by 1.07 percentage points. That one day erased its lag for the week: the two are now level, 1.37% against 1.29%.

Calls. The Brent premium held above US$10 on Thursday, but the one-year to two-year gap closed at 31, under its 32 floor. The ten-year at 5.22% is under its 5.24% floor, so that call is failing. The euro call failed at US$1.1196 on Wednesday. The two-year at 4.75% holds below 4.84%, and the Russell 2000 trails the S&P 500 by 0.58 percentage points since Tuesday. Faircurve expects the chip fund to stay below US$625.03, 2.92% above Thursday, through TSMC’s results on 15 October.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 09 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Thursday 8 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 7 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.