NASDAQ: PEP · Non-Alcoholic Beverages
PepsiCo (PEP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values PepsiCo (PEP) at $157.62 a share. The stock last closed at $125.89, which puts the model's fair value 25.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. PepsiCo, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
PepsiCo, Inc. is a global enterprise that creates, promotes, and supplies a diverse array of drinks and easy-to-prepare food items across the globe.
On 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $157.62 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.9% since the previous run, which on 19 Sep 2026 gave $159.11. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $117.81 to $141.36; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score against comparable companies is 69 out of 100. The model compares it with Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP), Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP), The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO), and National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PEP?
The calibrated range for PEP over 63 trading days is $117.81 to $141.36. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PEP's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $121.71 to $201.08. In 74% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PEP score on business quality?
PepsiCo's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 82 | 17.8%ROIC | 13.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 67 | 0.89xFCF / net income | 0.88x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 45 | 2.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 66 | 0.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 54 | 2.31xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.75x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does PEP compare with similar companies?
The companies in non-alcoholic beverages closest to PepsiCo in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $42.94 | $40.99 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | $85.65 | $71.63 | -16.4% | Overvalued |
| CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | $101.06 | $90.19 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $30.37 | $33.06 | +8.9% | Fairly valued |
| COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $192.04 | $222.46 | +15.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $26.75 | $28.11 | +5.1% | Data under review |
| COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc. | $55.97 | $59.61 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $30.32 | $30.68 | +1.2% | Fairly valued |
All non-alcoholic beverage stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PEP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PepsiCo's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PEP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.4% over one month.
How PEP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | -3.6% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | +1.8% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +7.1% |
| 9 Oct 2025 | +8.1% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +5.8% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -6.2% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | -3.1% |
| 8 Oct 2024 | +3.2% |
PepsiCo at a glance
PepsiCo, Inc. is a global enterprise that creates, promotes, and supplies a diverse array of drinks and easy-to-prepare food items across the globe.
- Market value
- $175.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Non-Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $101.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PepsiCo on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PEP was $159.11. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $157.62, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PepsiCo's valuation
Is PepsiCo stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PEP reads as Undervalued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $157.62 a share against a last close of $125.89, a gap of +25.2%.
What is PEP's fair value?
$157.62 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $121.71 to $201.08.
What price range does the model give PEP?
$117.81 to $141.36 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does PepsiCo report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PEP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.1% around the report of 9 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PEP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.