Global Market Pulse — Friday, Oct 16, 2026
Investors bought Treasuries for safety from the AI share sell-off, even as US producer prices rose well above forecasts.
By Faircurve Research
Faircurve Research
Global Market Pulse
FRI · 16 OCT 2026
Faircurve view: Fear of further losses in AI shares outweighed a producer price report well above forecasts. Investors bought Treasuries and the ten-year yield fell to 5.10%. Faircurve expects health care to beat technology again in the coming week.
Global Cross-Asset Daily
Investors bought government bonds for safety as the sell-off in AI shares spread through Asia, even though US producer prices rose 1.3% in September against a 0.5% forecast. The ten-year yield fell 9 basis points to 5.10%. Seoul fell 7.57% and Tokyo 4.90% before New York opened. The S&P 500 then recovered to gain 0.33%, led by health care, while chip makers kept falling after TSMC beat forecasts.
S&P 500
7,744
Thu close · +0.33% on the day · +13.13% YTD
UST 10Y
5.10%
Thu close · -9 bp on the day · +92 bp YTD
Brent
$105.92
Thu settle · -0.13% on the day · +74.07% YTD
VIX
16.46
Thu close · -0.41 points · 15.41 a week ago
§ 01 — Equities · United States
i.US Index Scoreboard
| Index | Close (Thu) | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 ^GSPC | 7,744.06 | +0.33% | -0.27% | +13.13% |
| Nasdaq Composite ^IXIC | 26,713.03 | +0.08% | -1.77% | +14.93% |
| Dow Jones ^DJI | 52,177.69 | +1.08% | +1.85% | +8.56% |
| Russell 2000 ^RUT | 2,767.27 | +1.38% | -0.96% | +11.50% |
The Dow gained 1.08% and the Nasdaq only 0.08%, so the gains came from outside technology. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies rose 1.38% to 2,767.27. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund rose 1.37%, 1.04 points more than the index. Eli Lilly gained 3.55% and UnitedHealth 2.79%. CoreWeave rose 5.94% after Nvidia’s chief executive backed the company. The volatility index fell 0.41 points to 16.46.
§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map
ii.Where the Money Moved
Thursday 15 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)
Health Care XLV
+1.86%
Materials XLB
+1.79%
Cons. Discretionary XLY
+1.71%
Communications XLC
+1.46%
Financials XLF
+1.38%
Real Estate XLRE
+1.21%
Cons. Staples XLP
+0.72%
Industrials XLI
+0.51%
Utilities XLU
-0.17%
Technology XLK
-0.65%
Energy XLE
-1.58%
Eight sectors rose and three fell, with health care up 1.86% and energy down 1.58%. Exxon Mobil lost 1.34% and Chevron 1.19%. Technology fell 0.65%, with Applied Materials down 3.72%, Nvidia 1.84% and TSMC’s US shares 1.80%. Wells Fargo gained 2.29% and Goldman Sachs 1.43%. Over the week health care is up 5.37% and technology down 4.34%.
Full table · sorted by YTD
| Sector | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | -1.58% | +2.02% | +48.87% |
| Technology XLK | -0.65% | -4.34% | +31.41% |
| Health Care XLV | +1.86% | +5.37% | +14.46% |
| Cons. Staples XLP | +0.72% | +3.91% | +11.59% |
| Materials XLB | +1.79% | +2.62% | +11.49% |
| Industrials XLI | +0.51% | -0.30% | +8.23% |
| Real Estate XLRE | +1.21% | +2.79% | +4.06% |
| Financials XLF | +1.38% | +1.92% | +0.91% |
| Utilities XLU | -0.17% | +1.41% | -2.44% |
| Communications XLC | +1.46% | +0.33% | -4.49% |
| Cons. Discretionary XLY | +1.71% | +1.52% | -5.02% |
§ 03 — Equities · Global
iii.Across the Time Zones
| Index | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| ^STOXX STOXX 600 | +0.38% | +2.34% | +7.99% |
| ^FTSE FTSE 100 | +1.08% | +3.82% | +9.15% |
| ^GDAXI DAX | +0.93% | +2.05% | +4.08% |
| ^FCHI CAC 40 | +0.78% | +2.65% | -2.64% |
| ^N225 Nikkei 225 | -4.90% | -6.69% | +27.98% |
| ^KS11 KOSPI | -7.57% | -16.17% | +31.80% |
| ^TWII TAIEX | -3.41% | -4.75% | +62.17% |
| ^HSI Hang Seng | -1.03% | +1.16% | -6.12% |
| 000001.SS Shanghai Comp. | -1.59% | -2.74% | -6.59% |
| ^STI Straits Times | -0.37% | -0.17% | +16.30% |
Global rows reference Thursday 15 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with Thursday 8 October. Asian markets closed before the US session, so they reflect Wednesday’s US losses, not Thursday’s recovery. FMP’s 15 October rows for several indices carry no volume. The Nikkei, KOSPI, TAIEX, DAX and Russell 2000 closes were confirmed against FMP full end-of-day rows and are shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.
Asian markets fell sharply after Wednesday’s US chip losses, while Europe gained. The KOSPI lost 7.57% and is down 16.17% on the week. The Nikkei fell 4.90%, the TAIEX 3.41% and Shanghai 1.59%. These markets closed before the US recovery. The FTSE 100 rose 1.08%, the DAX 0.93% and the STOXX 600 0.38%. The Straits Times Index eased 0.37%.
§ 04 — US Treasuries
iv.The Curve
2Y
4.77%
1D-5 bp
1W+2 bp
YTD+130 bp
5Y
4.91%
1D-9 bp
1W-8 bp
YTD+118 bp
10Y
5.10%
1D-9 bp
1W-12 bp
YTD+92 bp
30Y
5.43%
1D-9 bp
1W-17 bp
YTD+59 bp
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6M
2Y
5Y
10Y
20Y
30Y
Thursday 15 OctThursday 8 OctYear-end 2025
Yields of five years and longer each fell 9 basis points, while the one-month bill rose 6. The ten-year is 5.10% and the thirty-year 5.43%. The two-year fell 5 to 4.77% and the three-month bill was unchanged at 4.28%. The gap from two to ten years narrowed to 33 basis points from 37. The one-year sits 21 above the three-month bill, from 25.
§ 05 — Credit Spreads
v.Under the Surface
| Tier | Spread | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Grade | 84 | +1 bp | +2 bp | +5 bp |
| BBB | 104 | +1 bp | +2 bp | +3 bp |
| High Yield | 325 | +9 bp | +16 bp | +44 bp |
| CCC & Lower | 1,282 | +15 bp | +53 bp | +397 bp |
The latest spread data, for Wednesday, show lower-rated company bonds weakening further. High-yield spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on lower-rated company bonds, rose 9 basis points to 325 and are up 16 on the week. CCC spreads, the riskiest group, rose 15 to 1,282. Investment-grade spreads are 84, up 1. On Thursday the high-yield bond fund rose 0.42% and the investment-grade fund 0.82%.
The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Wednesday 14 October, so this block does not yet reflect Thursday 15 October. One-day changes compare with 13 October, one-week changes with 7 October and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.
§ 06 — Digital Assets
vi.Crypto
| Asset | Latest | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTCUSD | 82,244.83 | +0.83% | +0.68% | -6.00% |
| Ethereum ETHUSD | 2,443.06 | +1.01% | -1.21% | -17.65% |
| Solana SOLUSD | 105.37 | +1.14% | -3.81% | -15.33% |
Bitcoin rose 0.83% to US$82,244.83 after dipping below US$80,000 during the day. Ether gained 1.01% and solana 1.14%. Solana is still 3.81% lower on the week.
Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 15 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Wednesday 14 October and the one-week change with Thursday 8 October. FMP has revised Wednesday’s bitcoin close to 81,566.29 since the last letter. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.
§ 07 — Metals & Energy
vii.Commodities
| Contract | Latest | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold GCUSD | 4,170.10 | +1.51% | +0.32% | -3.94% |
| Silver SIUSD | 57.16 | +2.29% | -3.82% | -19.05% |
| Copper HGUSD | 6.56 | -1.56% | -0.18% | +15.39% |
| WTI Crude CLUSD | 97.97 | +3.03% | +7.08% | +70.62% |
| Brent Crude BZUSD | 105.92 | -0.13% | +1.57% | +74.07% |
| Nat Gas NGUSD | 3.24 | +1.19% | +2.15% | -12.21% |
American crude rose 3.03% to US$97.97, while Brent slipped 0.13%. US crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels in the week, against a forecast fall of 0.3 million. Gold rose 1.51% to US$4,170.10 and silver 2.29%. Copper fell 1.56%.
Commodity rows are Thursday 15 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 14 October, one-week changes with Thursday 8 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. The Brent premium over American crude was US$7.95 on Thursday, US$10.97 on Wednesday and US$12.79 on 8 October. Silver settled at 57.156, copper at 6.5565 and natural gas at 3.236. All are shown rounded.
§ 08 — Economic Calendar
viii.What’s Coming
Thu 15 Oct
HI
US · PPI MoM (Sep): actual 1.3%
Cons 0.5%
Prev 0.5%
Thu 15 Oct
MD
US · Core PPI MoM (Sep): actual 0.7%
Cons 0.3%
Prev 0.2%
Thu 15 Oct
HI
US · Retail Sales ex Autos MoM (Sep): actual 0.9%
Cons 0.5%
Prev 1.4%
Thu 15 Oct
HI
US · NY Empire State Index (Oct): actual 25.5
Cons 10.3
Prev 7.6
Fri 16 Oct
MD
US · Import Prices MoM (Sep)
Cons 0.8%
Prev 0.7%
Fri 16 Oct
MD
US · Industrial Production MoM (Sep)
Cons 0.4%
Prev 0.0%
Mon 19 Oct
HI
CN · Q3 GDP YoY
Cons 4.4%
Prev 4.3%
Mon 19 Oct
HI
CN · Retail Sales YoY (Sep)
Cons 1.0%
Prev 0.4%
Mon 19 Oct
HI
CN · Industrial Production YoY (Sep)
Cons 4.8%
Prev 5.2%
Tue 20 Oct
HI
DE · ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
Cons 25.1
Prev 34.7
Tue 20 Oct
HI
US · Housing Starts (Sep)
Cons 1.30M
Prev 1.275M
Wed 21 Oct
HI
JP · Trade Balance (Sep, JPY bn)
Cons -250
Prev -1,105.6
Wed 21 Oct
HI
US · Tesla Q3 Results (EPS)
Cons $0.45
Prev —
Thu 22 Oct
HI
US · Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/17)
Cons 200K
Prev 199K
Thu 22 Oct
MD
EU · Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Cons -17.0
Prev -16.5
US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The China growth consensus has moved to 4.4% from 5.2% shown in yesterday’s letter. Netflix, GE Aerospace and RTX report on Tuesday, and Texas Instruments, IBM and Lam Research on Wednesday.
China’s third-quarter growth on Monday is the main test of demand outside the US. Economists expect 4.4% growth from a year earlier, after 4.3%. US industrial production, expected up 0.4%, comes on Friday. Tesla reports on Wednesday, with US$0.45 a share expected.
§ 09 — Macro Themes
ix.The Narratives
1 · Wholesale prices. Core producer prices rose 0.7% in the month against 0.3% expected. Prices rose 6.3% from a year earlier, against a 5.3% forecast. Estimates for the Fed’s preferred core price gauge for September rose to 0.32% a month, from 0.25% in August.
2 · Fed speakers. Cleveland Fed President Hammack warned that worse inflation expectations could require a Fed response. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called inflation discouraging but kept some optimism. The average 30-year mortgage rate held at 7.4%.
3 · CoreWeave bonds. Yields on CoreWeave’s 2031 bonds topped 15%, and the cost of insuring its debt against default rose further. Its chief executive called the selling irrational. Bank of America kept a buy rating with a US$140 price target.
4 · TSMC. TSMC earned US$4.60 a share against US$4.45 expected, on revenue of US$46.06 billion. It plans to spend as much as US$64 billion this year on plants and equipment.
5 · Spending and oil supply. Retail sales excluding cars rose 0.9% against 0.5% expected, helped by fuel prices. Spending excluding fuel and cars rose 0.2%, in line. Iran stepped up attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances
x.Connecting the Dots
Demand for safety outweighed the inflation news. Producer prices beat forecasts by 0.8 points, yet longer yields fell 9 basis points and gold rose 1.51%. The long Treasury bond fund rose 1.37%, about four times the S&P 500 gain. The two-year fell only 5 basis points and the one-year still sits 21 above the three-month bill, so a Fed rise within a year is still expected, if a slightly smaller one.
Energy shares did not follow American crude. American crude rose 3.03% after the inventory fall, but energy shares fell 1.58% and Brent slipped. The Brent premium over American crude shrank to US$7.95 from US$10.97. The gain was specific to US supply.
Calls. Energy beat technology by 4.48 points from Monday to Thursday, past the 3-point target: hit. The chip fund closed 10.59% under its US$625.03 line after TSMC reported: hit. The ten-year sits 15 basis points under the 5.25% Friday line. The high-yield fund trails the investment-grade fund by 0.40 points, ahead of the 0.3 target. Financials lead the S&P 500 by 1.61 points, so that call is failing. New call: health care beats technology by at least 1 point from Thursday’s close to Wednesday’s close, when Texas Instruments reports.
FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 16 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Thursday 15 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 14 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.
The model's fair value on the names in this note
From the valuations of 10 Oct 2026, against each stock's last close. The verdict is the model's opinion on value, stated as such.
- Chevron (CVX): fair value $221.29, 0.9% above the last close of $219.39. Fairly valued.
- Lam Research (LRCX): fair value $310.02, 11.7% above the last close of $277.46. Fairly valued.
- GE Aerospace (GE): fair value $291.44, 6.6% below the last close of $312.00. Fairly valued.
- Eli Lilly (LLY): fair value $939.12, 25.0% below the last close of $1,251.61. Overvalued.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): fair value $259.05, 19.3% above the last close of $217.23. Undervalued.
- Texas Instruments (TXN): fair value $278.27, 0.3% below the last close of $279.12. Fairly valued.