NYSE: LLY · General Drug Manufacturers
Eli Lilly (LLY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Eli Lilly (LLY) at $947.76 a share. The stock last closed at $1,142.85, which puts the model's fair value 17.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Eli Lilly and Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $947.76 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +2.0% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $929.35. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $1,034.58 to $1,360.05. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 69 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY), and Biogen Inc. (BIIB). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 7.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LLY?
The calibrated range for LLY over 63 trading days is $1,034.58 to $1,360.05. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LLY's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $652.92 to $1,342.62. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LLY score on business quality?
Eli Lilly's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 39.4%ROIC | 19.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 22 | 0.75xFCF / net income | 1.17x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 97 | 44.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 28 | 0.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 84 | 1.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.27x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 5.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.5 pts |
How does LLY compare with similar companies?
The companies in general drug manufacturers closest to Eli Lilly in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $256.03 | $217.11 | -15.2% | Overvalued |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $262.82 | $271.97 | +3.5% | Fairly valued |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $144.30 | $125.73 | -12.9% | Fairly valued |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | $403.04 | $448.86 | +11.4% | Fairly valued |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $144.74 | $142.59 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | $27.80 | $31.76 | +14.2% | Fairly valued |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $61.15 | $71.30 | +16.6% | Undervalued |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | $219.88 | $236.19 | +7.4% | Fairly valued |
All general drug manufacturer stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does LLY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Eli Lilly's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LLY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.1% over one month.
How LLY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +6.8% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +13.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +1.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +6.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -16.2% |
| 1 May 2025 | -8.4% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +4.3% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -8.2% |
Eli Lilly at a glance
Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications.
- Market value
- $1.11T
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- General Drug Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $98.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +35.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 0.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Eli Lilly on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LLY was $929.35. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $947.76, a change of +2.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Eli Lilly's valuation
Is Eli Lilly stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LLY reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $947.76 a share against a last close of $1,142.85, a gap of -17.1%.
What is LLY's fair value?
$947.76 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $652.92 to $1,342.62.
What price range does the model give LLY?
$1,034.58 to $1,360.05 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Eli Lilly report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LLY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.2% around the report of 7 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LLY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.