Global Market Pulse — Thursday, Oct 22, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Strong results from AI-linked companies lifted chip makers on Wednesday. Super Micro Computer rose 9.6% after its report, the chip fund gained 1.89% and the Nasdaq 1.05%. The large buyers of AI chips were mixed: Alphabet fell 1.62%, while Microsoft and Meta rose less than 0.5%. Health care, up 2.86% over the past week, fell 0.49%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Chip makers rose, and media and telecom groups fell. Nvidia rose 2.54% and Micron 1.96%. Netflix fell 5.31% after a weaker revenue outlook. AT&T lost 6.45% even though its results beat forecasts. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% and is up 13.32% this year. The Dow gained 0.69% and is up 2.39% on the week, while the Russell 2000 rose 0.16%. The volatility index eased to 16.68. After the close Meta traded higher and Tesla lower.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 21 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology led with 1.67%, and communications was last with a 1.11% fall. Seven of eleven sectors rose. Health care, consumer staples and real estate fell. Over the week technology is still down 0.99%, while consumer discretionary is up 3.61%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Wednesday 21 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Tuesday 20 October and one-week moves with Wednesday 14 October. Asian markets closed before the US session. FMP’s 21 October rows for the STOXX 600, FTSE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei, TAIEX, Hang Seng and Straits Times carry no volume, and the DAX row carries unusually low volume. The DAX and STOXX 600 rows were checked against FMP full end-of-day data. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Korea and Taiwan, home of the main chip makers, rose most in Asia. The KOSPI gained 3.29% and the TAIEX 1.28%, though both are lower on the week. The Nikkei rose 0.85% and Singapore’s Straits Times 0.63%. The Hang Seng lost 0.90% and Shanghai 0.60%. In Europe the STOXX 600 gained 0.92% and the CAC 40 1.06%, even after UK inflation came in at 3.5% against 3.4% expected.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields edged up as shares rose. The two-year rose 2 basis points to 4.81% and the ten-year 1 to 5.13%. The thirty-year was unchanged at 5.42%. A 20-year bond sale cleared at 5.469%, above the 5.42% at the previous sale. The two-year sits 56 basis points above the three-month bill, a gap that does not point to a rate cut. On the week the two-year fell 1 basis point, the ten-year 6 and the thirty-year 10. Since the end of 2025 the two-year is up 134 basis points, the ten-year 95 and the thirty-year 58.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The credit spread data could not be retrieved this morning. The St. Louis Fed data service was offline for maintenance. Bond funds give a partial read: the high-yield fund rose 0.20% and the investment-grade fund slipped 0.01%.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) could not be retrieved this morning. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data service returned a maintenance page on every attempt through both of its access routes. The table is omitted rather than estimated. The last published readings, for 19 October, appeared in yesterday’s letter. Bond fund moves are FMP closes for 21 October.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 1.56% to US$84,235.45 and is up 3.27% on the week. Ether gained 1.33% and solana 0.69%. US bank regulators finalised rules for dollar-backed digital tokens.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Wednesday 21 October, matching the share session. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 20 October and one-week changes with Wednesday 14 October, both from this morning’s FMP history, which revises the prior day’s closes slightly. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent held at US$108.82 even though oil flows from the Gulf have nearly returned to pre-war levels. The American crude series shows a 4.56% fall, but the prior day’s price was revised, so that figure should be read with caution. US crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels against 0.8 million expected. Natural gas fell 5.84% on high US output and mild weather forecasts. Gold rose 0.18%, silver fell 0.50% and copper 0.36%.

Commodity rows are Wednesday 21 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 20 October, one-week changes with Wednesday 14 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. FMP now shows WTI at 101.79 on 20 October, against 97.82 in yesterday’s letter, possibly reflecting a move to a later contract month. The WTI one-day change is measured on FMP’s revised row and should be read with caution. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. Copper settled at 6.5795 and natural gas at 2.790.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. FMP’s Japan headline CPI row for 23 October again carries an “actual” figure before release, so only the core CPI row is shown. The Fed row shows FMP’s consensus and prior for the policy rate.

Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday 28 October, the day of the Fed decision. Their spending plans and how they fund them are the next test for chip makers. Before that come US jobless claims on Thursday, Japan’s core inflation on Friday, and US durable goods orders on Tuesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Meta. Revenue grew 26% to US$64.6 billion, and earnings of US$7.40 a share beat the US$6.52 expected despite a legal charge of about US$9.89 billion. It expects its devices unit to lose about US$15 billion next year.

2 · Tesla. Earnings of US$0.48 a share beat the US$0.45 expected, but revenue fell 0.1% from a year earlier and the operating margin was 2.6%. Musk gave no new detail on a possible combination with SpaceX.

3 · Data-centre limits. Australian data-centre operator NextDC fell 40% after an earnings warning that cited power shortages. Faircurve reads power supply as a second limit on AI spending, alongside funding.

4 · UK prices. Core inflation was 2.8% against 2.7% expected, and factory input prices rose 8.3% from a year earlier against 7.2% expected. French bonds led euro-zone yields higher on the day.

5 · US housing. The 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.41% from 7.50%, yet purchase applications fell about 7% in the week. Lower mortgage rates did not lift demand that week.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Chip makers rose more than the companies that pay them. The chip fund gained 1.89%, while Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta averaged a 0.26% fall, mostly from Alphabet. AI spending is income for chip makers and a cost for the buyers, and share prices moved in line with that split. One day does not reverse the week: the chip fund is still down 1.42% since last Wednesday and the KOSPI 4.55%.

The buyers face firm borrowing costs. The 20-year Treasury sale cleared at 5.469%, above 5.42% last time, and the two-year rose to 4.81% before the Fed meets. Meta says its new share class will help pay for AI and keep its founder-led control. If Microsoft or Alphabet also look for new ways to fund spending, chip makers keep their orders while the shares of the big buyers carry the cost.

Calls. Health care beat technology by 1.33 points from 15 to 21 October, past the 1 point needed: hit. The chip fund closed at US$556.70, 0.59% under the US$560 line for Thursday: on track. The two-to-ten-year gap is 32 basis points, 3 short of 35 for Friday: behind. The equal-weight fund trails the index by 0.22 points, against a 0.5-point lead needed by Friday: behind. New call: the chip fund beats an equal mix of Microsoft and Alphabet by at least 1 point from Wednesday’s close to Thursday 29 October, the day after both report. A 1-point gap is within one normal week’s swing for the chip fund.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 22 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (unavailable this morning). Figures reference the Wednesday 21 October 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.