NYSE: UNP · Railroads
Union Pacific (UNP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Union Pacific (UNP) at $279.79 a share. The stock last closed at $278.28, which puts the model's fair value 0.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Union Pacific Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodities.
Faircurve's model valued Union Pacific Corporation at $279.79 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -5.5% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $296.06. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $260.23 to $312.89, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
Union Pacific Corporation has an overall quality score of 78 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with CSX Corporation, Norfolk Southern Corporation, and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median of 4.2%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give UNP?
The calibrated range for UNP over 63 trading days is $260.23 to $312.89. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that UNP's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $212.36 to $360.68. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does UNP score on business quality?
Union Pacific's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 94 | 15.6%ROIC | 10.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 89 | 0.89xFCF / net income | 0.66x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 56 | 1.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 48 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 2.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 67 | 2.22xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.75x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 95 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.0 pts |
How does UNP compare with similar companies?
The companies in railroads closest to Union Pacific in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX CSX Corporation | $47.43 | $44.40 | -6.4% | Fairly valued |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | $317.44 | $274.53 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $287.54 | $254.95 | -11.3% | Fairly valued |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | $26.13 | $24.11 | -7.7% | Low evidence grade |
| GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | $40.58 | $44.07 | +8.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does UNP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Union Pacific's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. UNP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.5% over one month.
How UNP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +5.0% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +7.7% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -1.4% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -3.8% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -2.7% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -3.0% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | +5.5% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -4.6% |
Union Pacific at a glance
Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodities.
- Market value
- $162.7B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Railroads
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $27.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Union Pacific on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for UNP was $296.06. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $279.79, a change of -5.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Union Pacific's valuation
Is Union Pacific stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, UNP reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $279.79 a share against a last close of $278.28, a gap of +0.5%.
What is UNP's fair value?
$279.79 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $212.36 to $360.68.
What price range does the model give UNP?
$260.23 to $312.89 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Union Pacific report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UNP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.7% around the report of 23 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UNP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.