Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $291.74 · Current price: $282.25 · Verdict: Fairly Valued
The Verdict on UNP
Union Pacific (UNP) appears Fairly Valued based on our comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations. With a current market price of $282.25, our robust modeling framework establishes a median fair value (P50) at $291.74. This indicates an +3.4% upside potential from the current trading level to the probabilistic median. The assessment suggests the market is broadly aligned with the core intrinsic value derived from our forward-looking analysis, rather than presenting a significant overvaluation or undervaluation at this moment.
How UNP stacks up against Industrials
As a key player within the Industrials sector, UNP's operational and financial health is currently assessed as average when measured against its industry peers. This average quality tier is a critical input factored into our Monte Carlo simulations, directly influencing the calculated median fair value of $291.74. While the company exhibits a stable profile and solid fundamentals within its competitive landscape, its relative position does not suggest it is significantly outperforming or underperforming in a way that would dramatically skew the valuation away from its current market price of $282.25. This consistency underpins the 'Fairly Valued' verdict.
What this means for investors
For investors evaluating UNP, the assessment of Fairly Valued suggests a balanced risk/reward profile at $282.25. Our Monte Carlo analysis, which establishes a median fair value of $291.74, indicates that current market expectations are largely priced in, reflecting the company's average quality tier within the Industrials sector. While there is an +3.4% potential to the median, investors seeking significant alpha might consider scenarios beyond the P50, including both potential upside and downside movements that are probabilistically modeled. For a deeper dive into UNP's full probabilistic distribution, including bear and bull case scenarios, sign up for FairCurve to track its fair value as new fundamentals are released.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNP overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, Union Pacific (UNP) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued. With a median fair value (P50) of $291.74 and a current price of $282.25, the market is closely aligned with its intrinsic value.
What is the bear case and bull case for UNP?
Our Monte Carlo simulations provide a full probabilistic distribution, including bear (P10) and bull (P90) targets, as well as the probability of upside. These specific scenarios and price points are available with a free FairCurve account.
How does FairCurve calculate UNP's fair value?
FairCurve utilizes proprietary Monte Carlo simulations, running thousands of forward-looking scenarios to probabilistically model UNP's future cash flows and intrinsic value. This approach accounts for various market and fundamental uncertainties.
How can I track UNP's fair value as it changes?
You can add UNP to your free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates. FairCurve also provides instant re-valuation of UNP's fair value when new earnings data is released.