Global Market Pulse — Friday, Oct 30, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Investors sold Alphabet and Amazon, which are spending more on AI than they earn in cash, and bought most other shares. Alphabet fell 12.64% after missing forecasts, and the S&P 500 lost 0.30% to 7,720.39. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund rose 1.20%. US growth beat forecasts at 3.4%, and the ten-year yield fell 7 basis points to 4.98%. Faircurve links this to the GDP price measure, 2.2% against 3.2% expected. After the close, Amazon missed profit forecasts and traded about 7.6% lower.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Small companies rose while the Nasdaq fell. The Russell 2000 gained 1.01%, the Nasdaq lost 1.38% and the Dow 0.25%. Amazon fell 4.25% before its results and Micron 4.98%. Eli Lilly rose 6.57%, Merck 3.83% and Apple 1.48%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 29 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Nine sectors rose and two fell, with health care first and communications last. Health care gained 2.40% and real estate 2.21%. Technology lost 1.18% and communications 1.87%. Communications is down 5.78% on the week and 14.02% this year.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Thursday 29 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Wednesday 28 October and one-week moves with Thursday 22 October. FMP has no 23 or 26 October close for the TAIEX. Friday 30 October Asian sessions were still trading at the time of writing and are not shown. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Europe gained, while Korea and Taiwan fell. The DAX rose 1.39% and the STOXX 600 0.77%. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50%. The KOSPI fell 1.24% and the TAIEX 1.42%, though the KOSPI is still up 7.30% on the week.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields fell at every maturity except three months after inflation came in no hotter than expected. The two-year fell 6 basis points to 4.61%, the five-year 7 to 4.78%, the ten-year 7 to 4.98% and the thirty-year 5 to 5.32%. The gap between the two- and ten-year yields narrowed 1 to 37 basis points. Over the week it widened from 31, as the two-year fell 4 and the ten-year rose 2. The long bond fund rose 0.62%.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Company bond spreads narrowed again in Wednesday’s readings, the latest available. The high-yield spread fell 4 basis points to 314 and the CCC spread 14 to 1,307. The investment-grade bond fund rose 0.14% on Thursday as Treasury yields fell.

ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The latest observation is for Wednesday 28 October, so these figures do not yet reflect Thursday’s session. One-day change is against 27 October, one-week against 21 October, year-to-date against the last 2025 reading. Bond fund moves are FMP closes for 29 October.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell after the Binance exchange froze funds over a possible security problem. Bitcoin lost 5.47% to US$76,803.16, ether 6.24% and solana 8.13%. Bitcoin is down 12.22% this year.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 29 October. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 28 October (bitcoin revised by FMP to 81,249.31) and one-week changes with Thursday 22 October. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Oil and metals eased. American crude slipped 0.76% to US$102.00 and Brent 3.92% to US$110.80. Silver lost 2.40%, copper 1.03% and gold 0.50% to US$4,031.40. Natural gas fell 2.64% but is up 5.58% on the week.

Commodity rows are Thursday 29 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 28 October, one-week changes with Thursday 22 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series follows the front delivery month and can move to a later contract near month-end, so its one-day and year-to-date changes may span a change of contract. Copper settled at 6.6025 and natural gas at 2.952.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The BoJ row shows FMP’s consensus and prior for the policy rate. The US October jobs report follows on Friday 6 November (consensus 40K, prior 29K).

The Bank of Japan decides on Friday, with a hold at 1.25% expected, and euro-area growth follows. Apple reports and the US factory survey is out on Monday. The midterm elections are on Tuesday 3 November, with US services and euro-area inflation data on Wednesday. The US October jobs report follows on Friday 6 November.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Spending ahead of cash. Amazon spent US$77.3 billion on property and equipment in the quarter, more than double a year earlier. Over 12 months it used US$42.4 billion more cash than it earned, and long-term debt rose to US$173.1 billion.

2 · Borrowing to build. Microsoft priced US$25 billion of new bonds to pay for its AI building. Its finance chief had said on Wednesday that the company could borrow but had not yet done so.

3 · Selling more at lower prices. Lilly’s revenue rose 39% to about US$24.4 billion. Volumes jumped 53% while prices fell 15%, and profit of US$7.48 a share beat the US$5.68 expected.

4 · A beat that was not enough. Caterpillar fell 9.25% even though profit of US$7.20 a share topped the US$7.06 forecast. Revenue of US$20.68 billion came in just under the US$20.76 billion expected.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Faircurve reads Thursday as a test of cash and earnings, not of cloud demand. Alphabet’s cloud revenue rose 103% and Amazon’s cloud unit 39%, yet both missed profit forecasts. The typical stock gained, and the equal-weight fund beat the S&P 500 by 1.50 points. Meta rose 1.96% and Apple 1.48%, so the selling was not aimed at every large technology company.

Faircurve reads slower price growth in the GDP report as the reason yields fell despite strong growth. Core PCE matched forecasts at 3.1%, and the GDP price measure undershot. Real estate and utilities, which gain when yields fall, were among the top four sectors. The two-year still sits 61 basis points above the Fed’s 4.00% top rate, which prices no cut.

Calls. Two closed as wins: the chip fund beat the Microsoft and Alphabet mix by 8.77 points, and the ten-year ended Thursday at 4.98%, under 5.00%. Into Friday, small companies lead the Nasdaq by 2.12 points against 1 needed. The chip fund leads communications by 6.24 points. The two-year is off track, 4 basis points under Friday’s 4.65% line, and the two-to-ten gap at 37 clears 33. For the new call, the equal-weight fund led the index by more than 1 point on Thursday alone, but by only 0.09 points over the week. A strong Apple result on Monday would weaken it.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 30 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest 28 October). Figures reference the Thursday 29 October 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.