Global Market Pulse — Monday, Nov 02, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Intel forecast weaker sales because costly memory chips are hurting PC demand, and chip shares fell around the world. Intel lost 28.58% and the chip fund 6.98%. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07 and the Nasdaq 2.86%. Energy and consumer staples rose, and the equal-weight S&P 500 fund, which holds less technology, lost only 0.79%. Treasury yields fell, with the two-year down 5 basis points to 4.56%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Small companies held up better than the Nasdaq over the week. The Russell 2000 fell 1.66% on Friday but gained 1.29% on the week, while the Nasdaq lost 2.00%. AMD fell 10.88%, Broadcom 5.48% and Nvidia 4.22%. Apple lost 1.23% before its results on Monday.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 30 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Six sectors rose and five fell, with energy first and technology last. Energy gained 1.91% as Exxon and Chevron beat profit forecasts. Consumer staples rose 1.41% and utilities 0.67%. Technology lost 4.89%. Communications is down 5.32% on the week and 15.14% this year.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Friday 30 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Thursday 29 October and one-week moves with Friday 23 October. FMP has no 23 October close for the TAIEX, so its one-week move compares with Thursday 22 October. Asian sessions on Monday 2 November were still trading at the time of writing and are not shown. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Korea, Taiwan and Japan fell, as they were the first to trade after Intel’s report. The KOSPI lost 3.48%, the TAIEX 2.49% and the Nikkei 2.12%, while Hong Kong rose 1.46%. The DAX fell 1.17% even though German inflation slowed to 2.8%, below the 3.0% expected.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Treasury yields fell on the same day shares fell, with three- to seven-year bonds moving most. The two-year fell 5 basis points to 4.56%, the three-year 8 to 4.65%, the five-year 7 to 4.71%, the ten-year 4 to 4.94% and the thirty-year 1 to 5.31%. Over the week the two-year fell 13 and the ten-year 6. The gap between the two- and ten-year yields widened 1 to 38 basis points, and the two-to-thirty gap 4 to 75. The long bond fund rose 0.43%.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Company bond spreads widened on Thursday, the latest reading, before Intel’s report. The high-yield spread rose 12 basis points to 326 and the CCC spread 18 to 1,325. The investment-grade spread rose 3 to 89. On Friday the high-yield bond fund slipped 0.19%.

ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The latest observation is for Thursday 29 October, so these figures do not yet reflect Friday’s session. One-day change is against 28 October, one-week against 22 October, year-to-date against the last 2025 reading. Bond fund moves are FMP closes for 30 October.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin steadied on Friday while crypto shares fell. Bitcoin slipped 0.77% to US$77,180.42 and is down 4.81% on the week. Ether lost 0.32% and solana gained 0.82%. Coinbase shares fell 10.62%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 30 October, matching the share session. One-day changes compare with Thursday 29 October (bitcoin revised by FMP to 77,780.33) and one-week changes with Friday 23 October. Weekend trading is not included. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Oil rose while gold and silver fell. American crude gained 2.08% to US$104.12 and Brent 2.37% to US$113.43. Gold lost 3.29% to US$3,898.90 and silver 5.93%. Copper fell 1.83%. Natural gas fell 1.83% but is up 9.77% on the week.

Commodity rows are Friday 30 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Thursday 29 October, one-week changes with Friday 23 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series follows the front delivery month and can move to a later contract near month-end, so its changes may span a change of contract. Copper settled at 6.482 and natural gas at 2.898.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The RBA and BoE rows show FMP’s consensus and prior for the policy rate.

Apple reports on Monday, and the midterm elections and AMD results follow on Tuesday. Australia and the UK are expected to raise rates, to 4.85% and 4.00%. US services data come on Wednesday. The October jobs report on Friday is expected to show 65,000 new jobs.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · A Fed official calls for more increases. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Friday that at least two more quarter-point rate increases are needed to bring inflation under control.

2 · A US$6.3 billion theft. A hack hit about US$6.3 billion of assets at the Binance exchange on Thursday. Binance says it has replaced about 95% and resumed withdrawals on Sunday.

3 · Gulf shipping is still at risk. The International Maritime Organization says the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe for ships. OPEC and its allies kept output steady, below pre-war levels.

4 · China’s factories shrank. China’s official manufacturing index fell to 49.3 in October against 50.0 expected. A reading under 50 means activity is shrinking.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Faircurve reads Friday as a warning about chip makers’ PC customers, not about AI demand. Intel beat profit forecasts at US$0.52 a share against US$0.41, but its sales outlook fell short because higher memory prices are cutting PC sales. Memory maker Micron, which gains from those higher prices, still fell 5.30%, so investors sold chip shares as a group.

Bonds, energy and staples rose, while gold and bitcoin fell with shares. Yields from three to seven years fell 7 to 8 basis points, while the one-month bill held at 4.06%. The two-year at 4.56% still sits 56 basis points above the Fed’s 4.00% top rate, so bonds price further increases, not cuts.

Calls. Small companies beat the Nasdaq by 3.29 points over the week, and the two-to-ten gap ended at 38 basis points, above 33. Both are wins. The chip fund beat communications by only 0.27 points against 1 needed, and the two-year ended 9 basis points under 4.65%. Both are losses. The equal-weight fund leads the S&P 500 by 1.03 points after one day of its call to Thursday. The new call sits 6 basis points under Friday’s two-year yield, within last week’s 13 basis point fall. A Fed official wants higher rates, and Australia and the UK are expected to raise theirs. Payrolls well below the 65,000 expected would weaken it.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 2 NOV 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest 29 October). Figures reference the Friday 30 October 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.