Global Market Pulse — Thursday, Oct 15, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in September against a 0.2% forecast, which raised the odds of a Fed rate rise later this month. The S&P 500 fell 1.11% to 7,718.94. AI shares fell most, with CoreWeave down 15.46% on worries about its debt. Health care gained 2.53%. Yields of three years and less rose, while the ten-year fell 2 basis points to 5.19%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Nasdaq fell 1.88% and the Dow only 0.09%, a gap of 1.79 points. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies lost 1.93% to 2,729.53. UnitedHealth, a Dow member, rose 4.73%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund fell 0.57%, so the largest companies fell more than the average one. The volatility index rose 1.60 points to 16.87.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 14 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Health care rose 2.53% and technology fell 2.98%, with three sectors up and eight down. Eli Lilly gained 3.85%, Walmart 3.46% and Procter & Gamble 2.31%. Oracle lost 8.84%, AMD 5.73% and Nvidia 3.16%. Industrials fell 0.97%. Bank of America lost 4.76%, while JPMorgan rose 1.16%. Over the week technology is down 5.44% and staples up 5.34%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Wednesday 14 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with Wednesday 7 October. Asian markets closed before the US consumer price report. *Shanghai was shut on 7 October for the national holiday, so its one-week move compares with 30 September. FMP’s 14 October rows for several indices carry no volume. The Nikkei, STOXX 600 and Russell 2000 closes were confirmed against FMP full end-of-day rows and are shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

London and Paris gained, while Seoul fell for a third day. The FTSE 100 rose 0.70%, the CAC 40 0.58% and the STOXX 600 0.43%. Asian markets closed before the US report. The KOSPI lost 0.44% and is down 11.69% on the week. Shanghai fell 0.88%, Taipei rose 0.59% and the Straits Times Index eased 0.13%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The one-year yield rose most, while the thirty-year fell most. The one-year rose 5 basis points to 4.53%, the two-year 3 to 4.82% and the five-year was unchanged. The ten-year fell 2 to 5.19% and the thirty-year 4 to 5.52%. The gap from two to ten years is 37 basis points, from 51 a week ago. The one-year sits 25 above the three-month bill, from 22, which points to a higher policy rate within a year.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The latest spread data, for Tuesday, show riskier company bonds weakening ahead of the report. High-yield spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on lower-rated company bonds, are 316 basis points, up 13 on the week. CCC spreads, the riskiest group, are 1,267, up 53. Investment-grade spreads are 83, unchanged on the week.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Tuesday 13 October, so this block does not yet reflect Wednesday 14 October or the consumer price report. One-day changes compare with 12 October (a bond-market holiday that repeats 9 October), one-week changes with 6 October and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 1.77% to US$81,634.82. Ether lost 3.00% and solana 2.35%. Solana is 10.35% lower on the week.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Wednesday 14 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Tuesday 13 October and the one-week change with Wednesday 7 October. FMP has revised Tuesday’s bitcoin close to 83,101.99 since the last letter. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Silver lost 6.13% and copper 0.97%, while American crude gained 1.01%. Silver settled at US$55.88 and gold fell 1.66% to US$4,107.90. American crude reached US$95.09, a third daily gain, and Brent rose 0.35% to US$106.06. Natural gas fell 2.59%.

Commodity rows are Wednesday 14 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 13 October, one-week changes with Wednesday 7 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. The Brent premium over American crude was US$10.97 on Wednesday, US$11.55 on Tuesday and US$11.92 on 7 October. Silver settled at 55.877, copper at 6.6605 and natural gas at 3.198. All are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. For TSMC, prior is the second-quarter actual. Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks on Thursday.

Thursday’s retail sales show whether spending is slowing. Economists expect a 0.3% rise in September after 1.4%. Producer prices, expected up 0.5%, and TSMC results, with US$4.45 a share expected, come the same day. China reports third-quarter growth on Monday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Inflation detail. Prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, from 3.4% in August, against a 3.6% forecast. Core prices rose 2.6% against 2.5% expected. Gasoline, clothing and airfares rose.

2 · Fed reaction. San Francisco Fed President Daly said rate rises are likely needed, but not urgently. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called the report discouraging. The Beige Book found hiring slow and price pressures building with fuel costs.

3 · AI debt. Yields on CoreWeave’s unsecured bonds reportedly reached 15% on Tuesday. Gartner forecast that up to 80% of smaller AI cloud providers could disappear by 2030. Worry about AI debt spread to industrial companies that supply data centres.

4 · Results. Bank of America earned US$1.08 a share against US$1.10 expected and paid a US$1.2 billion penalty. Morgan Stanley earned US$3.03 against US$2.93 but fell 2.70%. ASML beat forecasts and fell 3.94%.

5 · China trade. Chinese exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier in September, against a 25.5% forecast, and imports 31%. Consumer prices rose 0.9%.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Four markets fit the growth-worry reading. Long yields fell, copper fell 0.97%, small companies fell 1.93% and staples rose. Gold fell 1.66% as well, which argues against a plain move into safety. The one-year yield now sits 25 basis points above the three-month bill, from 22. Oil rose, but its gains this year have followed the war.

Debt worries sit alongside the rate worry. CoreWeave’s unsecured bond yields reportedly reached 15% on Tuesday, in a week when CCC spreads widened 53 basis points. On Wednesday the high-yield bond fund fell 0.36% while the investment-grade fund rose 0.11%.

Calls. The test set before the price report was met: the two-year rose more than the ten-year and their gap fell below 40 basis points. The two-year held above 4.75% and the ten-year below 5.30%. Energy leads technology by 5.47 points since Monday, past the 3-point target due Thursday. The chip fund is 9.65% under its US$625.03 line before TSMC reports. Financials lead the S&P 500 by 0.56 points, so that call is failing. New calls through Friday: the ten-year ends below 5.25%, 6 basis points above today, and the high-yield fund trails the investment-grade fund by at least 0.3 points.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 15 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Wednesday 14 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 13 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.