Global Market Pulse — Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Concern about AI borrowing weighed on AI shares on Tuesday, while company results lifted most other US shares. In Korea a data-centre company fell 32% on its first day of trading, and the KOSPI lost 3.73%. In New York the Nasdaq slipped 0.02% while the Dow gained 1.02%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund rose 1.15%, ahead of the index’s 0.28%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Most gains came from companies with little AI exposure. 3M rose 5.78% after raising its full-year profit forecast. Northrop Grumman gained 4.57% and Hasbro 11.20%. The Russell 2000 rose 1.77%. General Motors fell 6.84% after narrowing its 2026 profit range. Meta fell 1.59% a day before its results and Alphabet 1.13%. The volatility index eased 1.13 points to 17.31.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Tuesday 20 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Ten of eleven sectors rose. Technology, down 0.28%, was the only one to fall. Health care led with 2.37%, helped by Eli Lilly, up 3.49%, and Merck, up 3.25%. Real estate gained 1.70% and utilities 1.26% on a day longer yields fell. Since last Tuesday health care is up 5.99% and technology down 5.52%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Tuesday 20 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Monday 19 October and one-week moves with Tuesday 13 October. Hong Kong was closed on Monday, so the Hang Seng one-day move compares with Friday 16 October and spans two sessions. Asian markets closed before the US session. FMP’s 20 October rows for the STOXX 600, FTSE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei, TAIEX and Straits Times carry no volume. The STOXX 600 row was checked against FMP full end-of-day data. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Most Asian markets fell before the US session. The KOSPI is down 8.00% on the week. The Nikkei lost 1.30% and the TAIEX 1.13%. The Hang Seng fell 1.32% over two sessions, as Hong Kong was shut on Monday. Shanghai edged up 0.12%. In Europe only the DAX rose, up 0.82% even after Germany’s ZEW investor survey fell to 28.1 against 30 expected. The STOXX 600 fell 0.14%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Longer yields fell on a day of weak housing data and lower oil, while the two-year rose. Housing starts were 1.221 million in September against 1.30 million expected. Pending home sales fell 7.3% in the month against a 0.5% fall expected. The ten-year fell 3 basis points to 5.12% and the thirty-year 6 to 5.42%, while the two-year rose 2 to 4.79%. The gap from two to ten years narrowed to 33 basis points from 38. The long Treasury fund rose 0.84%.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

On Monday, the latest data available, spreads for the weakest borrowers widened while the broad high-yield spread narrowed. CCC spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on the riskiest company bonds, rose 13 basis points to 1,310 and are up 57 on the week. High-yield spreads fell 2 to 329. Investment-grade spreads rose 2 to 87. On Tuesday the investment-grade bond fund rose 0.33% with Treasuries, and the high-yield fund slipped 0.01%.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Monday 19 October, so this block does not yet reflect Tuesday 20 October. One-day changes compare with 16 October, one-week changes with the last observation on or before 12 October and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 1.38% to US$82,963.82 but is still lower on the week. Ether gained 1.75% and solana 1.31%. One large US bitcoin fund took in US$665 million on Monday while two rival funds had withdrawals.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Tuesday 20 October, matching the share session. The one-day change compares with Monday 19 October and the one-week change with Tuesday 13 October, both from this morning’s FMP history. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent fell 0.69% to US$108.79 as hopes grew for talks between the US and Iran. The American crude series shows a 5.63% fall to US$97.82, but it likely switched to a later contract, so that figure overstates the day’s move. Silver rose 1.27% and gold fell 0.42%. Natural gas lost 2.53% and is down 9.75% on the week.

Commodity rows are Tuesday 20 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Monday 19 October, one-week changes with Tuesday 13 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. FMP now shows WTI at 103.66 on 19 October, against 98.54 in yesterday’s letter. The November contract’s last trading day was 20 October, so the WTI one-day change likely spans two contract months and overstates the day’s move. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. Copper settled at 6.6035 and natural gas at 2.963.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. FMP’s Japan headline CPI row for 23 October again carries an “actual” figure before release, so only the core CPI row is shown. Honeywell, Lockheed Martin and Union Pacific report on Thursday.

Meta, Tesla, Lam Research and IBM report on Wednesday. Meta’s spending plans matter most for the AI financing worry. UK inflation comes Wednesday morning, US jobless claims on Thursday, and the US business survey and Japan’s core inflation on Friday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · AI borrowing. CoreWeave fell before the open on concern about its debt, then closed 1.65% higher. Anthropic is reported to be in talks with Nscale on computing worth up to US$45 billion, another large commitment that must be funded.

2 · US housing. Pending home sales were 11.3% lower than a year earlier, which points to fewer home sales into year-end. Permits held near forecasts at 1.40 million.

3 · Fed. The Fed is reported to be considering another rate rise as housing weakens. The one-year yield sits 25 basis points above the three-month bill, so markets still allow for a rise. Faircurve reads this as the reason the two-year rose.

4 · UK jobs. Employment rose by 102,000 in the three months to August against 20,000 expected, and unemployment fell to 4.7%. A strong UK inflation figure on Wednesday would add to pressure for higher rates.

5 · US and China. The US barred DeepSeek AI products from government systems, and China condemned the move. Faircurve reads it as one more policy risk for Asian technology shares.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Lower long yields did not help technology. Technology fell even as the ten-year yield eased, and US chip shares lost 0.38%. That points to financing worry, not interest rates, as the main pressure on AI shares. Credit shows a similar split. CCC spreads are up 57 basis points in a week, against 18 for the broad high-yield spread.

Results are now the test. If Meta raises spending without showing revenue to match, Faircurve expects the gap between the equal-weight fund and the index to widen further. A reassuring report would leave the gap below 0.5 points by Friday.

Calls. The chip fund closed at US$546.36, 2.44% under the US$560 line for Thursday: on track. Health care leads technology by 3.47 points since 15 October, past the 1 point needed by Wednesday: ahead. The two-to-ten-year gap is 33 basis points, 2 short of the 35 needed on Friday: behind, because the two-year rose while the ten-year fell. New call: the equal-weight fund beats the S&P 500 by at least 0.5 points from Tuesday’s close to Friday 23 October. On Tuesday alone it led by 0.87 points.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 21 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Tuesday 20 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 19 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.