Market regime ยท 21 Sep 2026

US market regime today: Risk-On

As of , Faircurve's regime pulse reads 60.4 of 100, Risk-On. The label changed today from Neutral. Five sessions earlier it read 46.7 (Neutral).

Reading60.4 of 100after the 21 Sep 2026 close
LabelRisk-On1 session so far
Five sessions ago46.7Neutral
Label changes35in 189 sessions on record

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What changed this week

Over the week the Volatility input strengthened the most. A positive input pushes the reading up and a negative one pushes it down; the six are listed with the direction each read today.

  • Equity Trend positive
  • Sector Breadth neutral
  • Yield Curve negative
  • Cross-Asset positive
  • Volatility positive
  • Gold/Copper positive

The history

In 189 sessions since 18 Dec 2025 the pulse read Risk-On on 67 days, Neutral on 112 and Risk-Off on 10, and the label changed 35 times, about once every 5 sessions.

255075Dec 2025FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
Risk-OnNeutralRisk-Off
The regime pulse on each trading day from 18 Dec 2025 to 21 Sep 2026, 0 to 100, coloured by the day's label. The shaded part, from 23 Jul 2026, was recorded as it happened.

Readings from 23 Jul 2026 were recorded on the day. Earlier readings are computed after the fact from the same daily inputs under the current rule.

The last 5 changes

  • Neutral to Risk-On at 60.4 on the day
  • Risk-On to Neutral at 59.4 on the day
  • Neutral to Risk-On at 61.2 on the day
  • Risk-On to Neutral at 55.9 on the day
  • Neutral to Risk-On at 62.2 on the day

This page does not report what the market did after any reading. Faircurve has not studied that.

What this reading is

The regime pulse is a reading of market conditions from six measured inputs: trend, breadth, the yield curve, cross-asset confirmation, volatility and the gold to copper ratio. It describes the conditions on the day, not what comes next.

The label changes when the six inputs together cross a fixed threshold; the model does not decide this by hand.

This page does not report what the market did after any reading. Faircurve has not studied that.

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