Sectors · 5 Nov 2026

US sectors this week: the read from Faircurve's model

Eleven sectors, 1,444 stocks the model covers. What the market did to the close of 5 Nov 2026, and what the model reads on its 31 Oct 2026 valuations.

Faircurve Insights · 5 Nov 2026

The S&P 500 fund fell 5.7% over 21 sessions. Technology fell 19.4% over the same window, while Consumer Defensive rose 11.7% and Healthcare rose 9.5%. Inside Technology, the median stock is down 12.0% over 21 sessions. Only 37% of its names sit above their 50-session average.

Faircurve's model reads Energy as its widest median gap, +17.7%, with 81.4% of graded names below fair value. Real Estate carries the narrowest, a median gap of -9.2%. Technology's median gap is +14.0%. The model revised nothing large this week. Every sector's change in median gap came from prices, not from fair-value revisions.

On risk, Technology shows an implied one-month move of 17.5% for its typical name. Its 63-session correlation to the S&P 500 is 0.84. Energy, Consumer Defensive and Utilities move apart from the index, at -0.12, -0.01 and 0.08 over 63 sessions. Technology names are also spread widely, 39.0 points between the 25th and 75th name over 21 sessions, against 8.1 in Utilities.

Written from the figures on this page for the close of 5 Nov 2026 and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed below, no forecast, no instruction. Not a recommendation.

The sentences behind the note, generated by rule
  1. Leadership: the S&P 500 fund is -5.7% over 21 sessions while the median stock of the 1,444 the model covers is down in 4 of 11 sectors. 7% of Energy and 33% of Communication Services names sit above their 50-session average; 80% of Utilities.
  2. Energy carries the model's widest gap: 81.4% of its 59 graded names trade below the model's fair value, median gap +17.7%. The fund is -2.7% over 21 sessions and its 63-session correlation to the S&P 500 is -0.12.
  3. Real Estate carries the narrowest: median gap -9.2% across 86 graded names, 37.2% below fair value.
  4. Technology is the weakest inside: median stock -12.0% over 21 sessions, 37% of names above their 50-session average, and 16 of them report in the next 14 days.
  5. Technology carries the most movement per name: the options market's implied one-month move for its typical name is 17.5%, median beta 1.34, the highest of any sector.
  6. Moving apart from the S&P 500 over 63 sessions: Energy (-0.12), Consumer Defensive (-0.01), Utilities (0.08).
  7. The model revised nothing large this week: every sector's change in median gap came from prices, not from fair-value revisions.
  8. Breadth on the week: Real Estate gained the most breadth: 69% of its names above their 50-session average, +24 points on the week; Energy lost the most: 7%, -58 points.
  9. Against the S&P 500 over 63 sessions: Healthcare led by +16.8 points and Technology lagged by 8.4 points.
  10. Names moved most apart inside Technology: 39.0 points between its 25th and 75th name over 21 sessions, against 8.1 in Utilities.

The numbered read is generated from the figures below by fixed rules. Facts carry their window and date; the model's reading is the model's opinion on value, stated as such.

The board

Where each sector sits this week, on the funds and inside the names the model covers.

Consumer Defensive+11.7%
Healthcare+9.5%
Real Estate+9.2%
Financial Services+7.0%
Basic Materials+6.8%
Consumer Cyclical+5.6%
Utilities+5.2%
Energy-2.7%
Industrials-3.2%
Communication Services-6.2%
Technology-19.4%
S&P 500-5.7%
Sector funds, price return over 21 sessions to 5 Nov 2026, best to worst, with the S&P 500
Utilities80%
Consumer Defensive75%
Healthcare75%
Consumer Cyclical74%
Real Estate69%
Financial Services62%
Basic Materials49%
Industrials46%
Technology37%
Communication Services33%
Energy7%
Share of each sector's names above their 50-session average, most to least

The Global Pulse

Faircurve's market note, in your inbox each market day

The Global Pulse is Faircurve's note after each US session: what moved, in plain words. No account needed.

Sector by sector

Ordered by the model's median gap to fair value, widest first; sectors with fewer than 20 graded names come last with no model figure. Each card opens the sector's ranked list of names.

Energy

59 of 72 graded

The model's widest gap to fair value this week; the fund -2.7% over 21 sessions.

Fund +7.2%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
-2.7%
Median stock, 21 sessions
-8.3%
Below fair value
81.4%
Median gap
+17.7%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
+7.2%
Above 50-session average
7%
Implied 1-month move
14.4%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
-0.12
Reporting in 14 days
4

What the model reads

Change on week
+1.6 pts
Prices / fair values
+1.3% / +1.3%

Technology

181 of 223 graded

The model's median gap is +14.0%; the weakest inside, median stock -12.0% over 21 sessions.

Fund -13.6%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
-19.4%
Median stock, 21 sessions
-12.0%
Below fair value
71.8%
Median gap
+14.0%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-13.6%
Above 50-session average
37%
Implied 1-month move
17.5%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.84
Reporting in 14 days
16

What the model reads

Change on week
+2.1 pts
Prices / fair values
-0.7% / -0.9%

Communication Services

20 of 41 graded

The model's median gap is +4.9%; the fund -6.2% over 21 sessions.

Fund -6.2%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
-6.2%
Median stock, 21 sessions
-3.5%
Below fair value
60.0%
Median gap
+4.9%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-6.2%
Above 50-session average
33%
Implied 1-month move
11.5%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.42
Reporting in 14 days
4

What the model reads

No change on the week: the sector was not graded in both weeks.

Industrials

181 of 216 graded

The model's median gap is +3.6%; the fund -3.2% over 21 sessions.

Fund -12.3%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
-3.2%
Median stock, 21 sessions
-0.2%
Below fair value
59.7%
Median gap
+3.6%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-12.3%
Above 50-session average
46%
Implied 1-month move
11.8%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.63
Reporting in 14 days
14

What the model reads

Change on week
-1.0 pts
Prices / fair values
+2.1% / +1.9%

Consumer Defensive

64 of 80 graded

The model's median gap is +0.7%; the strongest inside, median stock +12.9% over 21 sessions.

Fund +7.2%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
+11.7%
Median stock, 21 sessions
+12.9%
Below fair value
51.6%
Median gap
+0.7%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
+7.2%
Above 50-session average
75%
Implied 1-month move
10.5%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
-0.01
Reporting in 14 days
8

What the model reads

Change on week
-0.4 pts
Prices / fair values
+0.9% / +0.5%

Basic Materials

52 of 77 graded

The model's median gap is +0.4%; the fund +6.8% over 21 sessions.

Fund -1.0%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
+6.8%
Median stock, 21 sessions
+5.1%
Below fair value
51.9%
Median gap
+0.4%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-1.0%
Above 50-session average
49%
Implied 1-month move
12.1%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.41
Reporting in 14 days
3

What the model reads

Change on week
-0.7 pts
Prices / fair values
+2.5% / +2.5%

Healthcare

109 of 158 graded

The model's median gap is 0.0%; the fund +9.5% over 21 sessions.

Fund +11.6%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
+9.5%
Median stock, 21 sessions
+7.1%
Below fair value
50.5%
Median gap
0.0%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
+11.6%
Above 50-session average
75%
Implied 1-month move
12.4%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.30
Reporting in 14 days
8

What the model reads

Change on week
+1.4 pts
Prices / fair values
+0.8% / +1.0%

Consumer Cyclical

127 of 186 graded

The model's median fair value sits below the price; the fund +5.6% over 21 sessions.

Fund -1.9%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
+5.6%
Median stock, 21 sessions
+12.9%
Below fair value
47.2%
Median gap
-1.0%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-1.9%
Above 50-session average
74%
Implied 1-month move
13.3%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.71
Reporting in 14 days
18

What the model reads

Change on week
+0.7 pts
Prices / fair values
+2.5% / +2.3%

Utilities

49 of 56 graded

The model's median fair value sits below the price; the fund +5.2% over 21 sessions.

Fund -0.7%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
+5.2%
Median stock, 21 sessions
+9.5%
Below fair value
44.9%
Median gap
-1.8%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-0.7%
Above 50-session average
80%
Implied 1-month move
7.2%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.08
Reporting in 14 days
4

What the model reads

Change on week
+0.6 pts
Prices / fair values
+1.9% / +1.0%

Financial Services

135 of 226 graded

The model's median fair value sits below the price; the fund +7.0% over 21 sessions.

Fund -0.2%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
+7.0%
Median stock, 21 sessions
+5.7%
Below fair value
43.7%
Median gap
-3.5%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-0.2%
Above 50-session average
62%
Implied 1-month move
9.7%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.53
Reporting in 14 days
9

What the model reads

Change on week
-0.8 pts
Prices / fair values
-0.4% / -0.2%

Real Estate

86 of 109 graded

The model's narrowest gap to fair value this week; the fund +9.2% over 21 sessions.

Fund -1.5%S&P 500 -5.2%
Fund, 21 sessions
+9.2%
Median stock, 21 sessions
+7.9%
Below fair value
37.2%
Median gap
-9.2%
All figures and the widest gaps

What the market did

Fund, 63 sessions
-1.5%
Above 50-session average
69%
Implied 1-month move
9.1%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s
0.38
Reporting in 14 days
5

What the model reads

Change on week
+0.5 pts
Prices / fair values
+1.2% / +1.0%

Performance and risk, from the sector funds

11 figures per sector, sortable

Price returns from the SPDR sector funds, dividends excluded, in trading sessions to the close of 5 Nov 2026. Those funds are cap-weighted large caps on GICS sectors; the model's names are equal-weight and include mid and small caps on the model's own sector labels, so the two will disagree. Fund per sector: Technology XLK, Communication Services XLC, Financial Services XLF, Healthcare XLV, Energy XLE, Consumer Cyclical XLY, Consumer Defensive XLP, Basic Materials XLB, Industrials XLI, Real Estate XLRE, Utilities XLU.

Sector1 week (5)1 month (21)3 months (63)6 months (126)1 year (252)Year to dateOff 252-session highVol, 63Vol, 252Corr. S&P, 63Corr. S&P, 252
EnergyXLE-10.3%-2.7%+7.2%+10.2%+41.4%+37.8%-12.0%25.7%23.3%-0.12-0.21
TechnologyXLK-14.0%-19.4%-13.6%-4.3%+10.5%+12.8%-19.6%28.6%28.3%0.840.85
Communication ServicesXLC+3.1%-6.2%-6.2%-11.1%-7.5%-11.4%-13.1%19.5%16.7%0.420.52
IndustrialsXLI-4.5%-3.2%-12.3%-6.6%+6.5%+4.7%-12.9%15.7%17.8%0.630.70
Consumer DefensiveXLP+3.5%+11.7%+7.2%+8.7%+20.1%+17.5%-0.8%18.1%15.8%-0.01-0.05
Basic MaterialsXLB-0.4%+6.8%-1.0%+1.8%+23.5%+15.4%-2.9%16.3%18.1%0.410.51
HealthcareXLV+0.5%+9.5%+11.6%+27.8%+27.4%+19.5%-2.5%18.9%16.9%0.300.23
Consumer CyclicalXLY+1.2%+5.6%-1.9%-1.9%-1.2%-1.5%-5.5%19.4%19.8%0.710.76
UtilitiesXLU+0.4%+5.2%-0.7%-4.0%-2.5%+1.4%-9.3%15.8%15.7%0.080.09
Financial ServicesXLF+1.0%+7.0%-0.2%+11.5%+9.7%+5.0%-2.9%15.9%15.2%0.530.54
Real EstateXLRE+2.9%+9.2%-1.5%-0.2%+8.2%+9.8%-3.7%15.4%14.6%0.380.28
S&P 500SPY-4.7%-5.7%-5.2%+0.2%+8.6%+7.5%-5.9%13.6%13.6%1.001.00

Inside the sectors, from the stocks the model covers

7 figures per sector, sortable

Equal-weight figures across the model's names: the median stock's 21-session price return, the spread between the 25th and 75th of those returns, the share of names above their 50-session average, and the engine's own risk figures as sector medians. Beta is how much a stock moves with the S&P 500, with rate moves held constant, measured over the last 252 sessions; idiosyncratic volatility is the stock's own annualised volatility after market and rate moves are removed, over the same 252 sessions; both on US-listed names, 20 or more. The implied one-month move is the options market's 30-day implied volatility for the typical name, scaled to a month.

SectorMedian stock, 21Spread, 21Above 50-session avgMedian betaMedian idiosyncratic volImplied 1-month moveReporting in 14 days
Energy72 names-8.3%12.8 pts7%-0.0438.1%14.4%HP, NOG, OXY, TDW
Technology223 names-12.0%39.0 pts37%1.3448.8%17.5%AMAT, CART, CSCO, DGII, DLB, DV, ESE, INTU, KLIC, LIF, NVDA, PANW, PLUS, Q, SONO, VSAT
Communication Services42 names-3.5%23.1 pts33%0.4135.7%11.5%DIS, SSTK, TDS, WMG
Industrials217 names-0.2%23.6 pts46%0.8733.4%11.8%ARMK, BRC, CPRT, ENR, FLR, J, MATW, MMS, MOG-A, NVRI, POWL, SARO, TDG, TTEK
Consumer Defensive80 names+12.9%13.1 pts75%-0.1430.0%10.5%BJ, BRBR, EPC, JJSF, POST, TGT, TSN, WMT
Basic Materials77 names+5.1%20.5 pts49%0.7933.9%12.1%GFF, KOP, SLVM
Healthcare159 names+7.1%13.9 pts75%0.4537.1%12.4%ANIP, HIMS, HUM, MDT, NHC, OGN, RDNT, ROIV
Consumer Cyclical186 names+12.9%15.3 pts74%0.6237.5%13.3%ATMU, BBWI, BKE, CAVA, GAP, HD, HZO, LOW, LQDT, LZB, PDD, ROST, SBH, TJX, VVV, WEN, WSM, WWW
Utilities56 names+9.5%8.1 pts80%-0.2318.9%7.2%CEG, HE, NJR, UGI
Financial Services227 names+5.7%10.0 pts62%0.4425.2%9.7%BEN, BRK-B, CG, ESNT, EZPW, GNW, KKR, MKTX, PRAA
Real Estate109 names+7.9%9.0 pts69%0.1722.2%9.1%CTRE, MMI, MRP, SHO, STWD

What each sector moves with

six correlations per sector and the sector to sector grid

63-session correlations of daily returns between each sector fund and the S&P 500, Treasuries (IEF), high-yield credit (HYG), gold, copper and the VIX.

SectorS&P 500BondsCreditGoldCopperVIX
EnergyXLE-0.12-0.22-0.28-0.33-0.04-0.01
TechnologyXLK0.84-0.150.410.200.44-0.78
Communication ServicesXLC0.420.120.320.200.04-0.24
IndustrialsXLI0.63-0.010.240.280.24-0.60
Consumer DefensiveXLP-0.010.480.130.01-0.19-0.03
Basic MaterialsXLB0.410.360.360.340.32-0.46
HealthcareXLV0.300.360.310.140.09-0.34
Consumer CyclicalXLY0.710.300.520.440.32-0.65
UtilitiesXLU0.080.520.270.11-0.01-0.06
Financial ServicesXLF0.530.320.360.350.17-0.47
Real EstateXLRE0.380.510.450.320.13-0.35

Sector to sector, 63 sessions

XLKXLCXLFXLVXLEXLYXLPXLBXLIXLREXLU
XLK1.000.100.11-0.09-0.020.31-0.450.080.560.04-0.07
XLC0.101.000.420.24-0.340.510.210.200.020.28-0.10
XLF0.110.421.000.52-0.150.710.560.590.450.680.32
XLV-0.090.240.521.00-0.120.510.600.490.050.460.11
XLE-0.02-0.34-0.15-0.121.00-0.35-0.11-0.050.01-0.22-0.03
XLY0.310.510.710.51-0.351.000.440.670.470.600.20
XLP-0.450.210.560.60-0.110.441.000.550.000.560.38
XLB0.080.200.590.49-0.050.670.551.000.430.510.26
XLI0.560.020.450.050.010.470.000.431.000.340.31
XLRE0.040.280.680.46-0.220.600.560.510.341.000.54
XLU-0.07-0.100.320.11-0.030.200.380.260.310.541.00

What the model reads on the whole list

55.1% of the 1,061 graded US stocks the model covers trade below its fair value at the close of 5 Nov 2026, and the median gap to fair value is +2.3%. 1,441 US stocks are valued; the 1,061 pass the sitewide reliability rule, a high or medium evidence grade, no data flag and a gap inside 60%. Against last week, on the 1,027 names graded in both, the median gap moved 0.0 points: prices +1.0%, fair values +0.9%.

59%52%11 Jul31 Oct26 Sep55.0%
Share of graded US stocks below the model's fair value, by weekly valuation, at the prices of each run, 11 Jul 2026 to 31 Oct 2026. Dashed line: 26 Sep 2026, when banks, insurers and REITs received a grade and entered the count.

The points behind the line

17 weekly valuations, sortable
ValuationGraded of valuedBelow fair valueMedian gapChange on week, ptsPrices movedFair values moved
31 Oct 20261,085 of 1,44855.0%+1.5%0.0+1.0%+0.9%
24 Oct 20261,099 of 1,45753.6%+1.1%-0.1+1.4%+1.4%
17 Oct 20261,107 of 1,45953.1%+0.9%-0.3+1.4%+1.3%
10 Oct 20261,102 of 1,46553.8%+1.2%0.0+0.1%+0.2%
3 Oct 20261,095 of 1,46653.7%+1.2%-0.1-0.4%-0.3%
26 Sep 2026banks, insurers and REITs received a grade and entered the count1,046 of 1,46554.4%+1.6%+0.2-0.1%-0.3%
19 Sep 2026919 of 1,46257.1%+2.1%-0.1-1.6%-1.7%
12 Sep 2026939 of 1,46357.2%+2.1%+0.7-2.0%-1.9%
5 Sep 2026936 of 1,46455.1%+1.6%+0.3-0.3%-0.3%
29 Aug 2026942 of 1,46754.9%+1.3%-0.4-0.8%-1.4%
22 Aug 2026918 of 1,46854.4%+1.9%+0.2-1.3%-1.3%
15 Aug 2026907 of 1,46855.2%+1.8%-0.8+0.6%+0.5%
8 Aug 2026919 of 1,49257.5%+2.7%+0.1+3.0%+3.2%
1 Aug 2026927 of 1,49457.4%+2.7%+1.1+0.2%+0.7%
25 Jul 2026934 of 1,50955.4%+1.7%-0.5+0.2%+0.1%
21 Jul 2026951 of 1,51056.2%+2.3%0.0-0.1%-0.3%
11 Jul 2026957 of 1,51655.1%+2.2%

Each week is that week's model and that week's prices. On 26 September banks, insurers and REITs received a grade and entered the count. The change on the week is on the names graded in both weeks.

The share says what the model concluded about the stocks that week, and nothing about what the market did after.

What the model reads, sector by sector

On the 31 Oct 2026 valuations, counting only names that pass the sitewide reliability rule (a high or medium evidence grade, no data flag, a gap inside 60%): the share of graded names trading below the model's fair value and the model's median gap to fair value across them. No figure for a sector with fewer than 20 graded names. The change on the week is split into what prices did and what the model's fair values did, on the names graded in both weeks.

Energy81.4% of 59
Technology71.8% of 181
Communication Services60.0% of 20
Industrials59.7% of 181
Consumer Defensive51.6% of 64
Basic Materials51.9% of 52
Healthcare50.5% of 109
Consumer Cyclical47.2% of 127
Utilities44.9% of 49
Financial Services43.7% of 135
Real Estate37.2% of 86
Share of each sector's graded names below the model's fair value, 31 Oct 2026 valuations, in the order of the cards

The table behind the board

six figures per sector, sortable
SectorGraded of valuedBelow fair valueMedian gapChange on week, ptsPrices movedFair values moved
Energy59 of 7281.4%+17.7%+1.6+1.3%+1.3%
Technology181 of 22371.8%+14.0%+2.1-0.7%-0.9%
Communication Services20 of 4160.0%+4.9%
Industrials181 of 21659.7%+3.6%-1.0+2.1%+1.9%
Consumer Defensive64 of 8051.6%+0.7%-0.4+0.9%+0.5%
Basic Materials52 of 7751.9%+0.4%-0.7+2.5%+2.5%
Healthcare109 of 15850.5%0.0%+1.4+0.8%+1.0%
Consumer Cyclical127 of 18647.2%-1.0%+0.7+2.5%+2.3%
Utilities49 of 5644.9%-1.8%+0.6+1.9%+1.0%
Financial Services135 of 22643.7%-3.5%-0.8-0.4%-0.2%
Real Estate86 of 10937.2%-9.2%+0.5+1.2%+1.0%

The model's figures say what the model concluded about the sector's stocks, and nothing about the sector's returns.

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