Sectors · 21 Sep 2026

US sectors this week: the read from Faircurve's model

Eleven sectors, 1,460 stocks the model covers. What the market did to the close of 21 Sep 2026, and what the model reads on its 19 Sep 2026 valuations.

Faircurve Insights · 21 Sep 2026

The S&P 500 fund is up 1.4% over 21 sessions, while the median stock is down in 10 of 11 sectors. Technology gained the most breadth over the week, with 52% of its names above their 50-session average, a rise of 5 points. Energy lost the most breadth, falling 38 points to 33%. Consumer Cyclical shows the weakest median stock performance, down 9.2% over 21 sessions.

Energy carries Faircurve's widest median gap at +5.5% across 65 graded names, with 66.2% of them below fair value. The model revised Energy's fair values this week, which fell 3.7% on prices down 4.3%. Basic Materials has the narrowest median gap at -1.3% across 56 graded names, with 44.6% below fair value.

Technology carries the most movement per name, with the options market's implied one-month move for its typical name at 14.5% and a median beta of 1.35. Realized volatility over 63 sessions is above its own year in Communication Services, at 20.6% against 15.8%. Healthcare's correlation to the S&P 500 moved to -0.14 over 63 sessions, against 0.23 over the year.

Written from the figures on this page for the close of 21 Sep 2026 and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed below, no forecast, no instruction. Not a recommendation.

The sentences behind the note, generated by rule

Leadership: the S&P 500 fund is +1.4% over 21 sessions while the median stock of the 1,460 the model covers is down in 10 of 11 sectors. 7% of Utilities and 7% of Real Estate names sit above their 50-session average; 52% of Technology.
Energy carries the model's widest gap: 66.2% of its 65 graded names trade below the model's fair value, median gap +5.5%. The fund is -2.0% over 21 sessions and its 63-session correlation to the S&P 500 is -0.36.
Basic Materials carries the narrowest: median gap -1.3% across 56 graded names, 44.6% below fair value.
Consumer Cyclical is the weakest inside: median stock -9.2% over 21 sessions, 9% of names above their 50-session average, and 9 of them report in the next 14 days.
Technology carries the most movement per name: the options market's implied one-month move for its typical name is 14.5%, median beta 1.35, the highest of any sector.
Moving apart from the S&P 500 over 63 sessions: Energy (-0.36), Healthcare (-0.14), Consumer Defensive (-0.22), Utilities (-0.10), Real Estate (-0.08).
The model revised its fair values this week in Energy (median fair value -3.7% on prices -4.3%).
Breadth on the week: Technology gained the most breadth: 52% of its names above their 50-session average, +5 points on the week; Energy lost the most: 33%, -38 points.
Against the S&P 500 over 63 sessions: Energy led by +11.6 points and Utilities lagged by 13.0 points.
Correlations that moved: Healthcare -0.14 to the S&P 500 over 63 sessions against 0.23 over the year; Real Estate -0.08 to the S&P 500 over 63 sessions against 0.25 over the year.
Realised volatility over 63 sessions is above its own year in Communication Services (20.6% against 15.8%).
Names moved most apart inside Communication Services: 13.7 points between its 25th and 75th name over 21 sessions, against 2.9 in Utilities.

The numbered read is generated from the figures below by fixed rules. Facts carry their window and date; the model's reading is the model's opinion on value, stated as such.

The board

Where each sector sits this week, on the funds and inside the names the model covers.

Technology+6.4%

Communication Services+3.7%

Financial Services-1.8%

Energy-2.0%

Healthcare-2.0%

Consumer Cyclical-3.8%

Consumer Defensive-4.0%

Basic Materials-5.2%

Industrials-5.4%

Real Estate-5.5%

Utilities-7.1%

S&P 500+1.4%

Sector funds, price return over 21 sessions to 21 Sep 2026, best to worst, with the S&P 500

Technology52%

Healthcare50%

Communication Services47%

Energy33%

Financial Services22%

Basic Materials18%

Consumer Defensive16%

Industrials15%

Consumer Cyclical9%

Utilities7%

Real Estate7%

Share of each sector's names above their 50-session average, most to least

Sector by sector

Ordered by the model's median gap to fair value, widest first; sectors with fewer than 20 graded names come last with no model figure. Each card opens the sector's ranked list of names.

Energy

65 of 72 graded

The model's widest gap to fair value this week; the fund -2.0% over 21 sessions; the model revised its fair values for this sector this week.

What the market did

Fund +15.5%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -2.0%
Fund, 63 sessions: +15.5%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -6.2%
Above 50-session average: 33%
Implied 1-month move: 12.2%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: -0.36
Reporting in 14 days: 0

What the model reads

Below fair value: 66.2%
Median gap: +5.5%
Change on week: -0.4 pts
Prices / fair values: -4.3% / -3.7%

The model revised its fair values for this sector this week.

Widest gaps: PBF +58.3%, TALO +49.5%, EXE +44.6% · all 72 ranked

Healthcare

112 of 159 graded

The model's median gap is +2.8%; the fund -2.0% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund +12.6%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -2.0%
Fund, 63 sessions: +12.6%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -1.7%
Above 50-session average: 50%
Implied 1-month move: 11.0%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: -0.14
Reporting in 14 days: 0

What the model reads

Below fair value: 60.7%
Median gap: +2.8%
Change on week: +0.6 pts
Prices / fair values: +0.4% / +0.4%

Widest gaps: UHS +48.3%, NEO +46.0%, BIO +45.5% · all 159 ranked

Financial Services

48 of 233 graded

The model's median gap is +2.7%; the fund -1.8% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund +4.1%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -1.8%
Fund, 63 sessions: +4.1%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -2.9%
Above 50-session average: 22%
Implied 1-month move: 9.3%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: 0.42
Reporting in 14 days: 2

What the model reads

Below fair value: 58.3%
Median gap: +2.7%
Change on week: -0.1 pts
Prices / fair values: -1.5% / -1.2%

Widest gaps: VCTR +44.0%, APAM +39.3%, AMP +38.9% · all 233 ranked

Consumer Defensive

68 of 81 graded

The model's median gap is +2.4%; the fund -4.0% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund -0.3%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -4.0%
Fund, 63 sessions: -0.3%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -5.6%
Above 50-session average: 16%
Implied 1-month move: 10.2%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: -0.22
Reporting in 14 days: 7

What the model reads

Below fair value: 60.3%
Median gap: +2.4%
Change on week: -0.2 pts
Prices / fair values: -0.9% / -0.7%

Widest gaps: ACI +50.2%, DLTR +40.9%, KR +25.6% · all 81 ranked

Technology

191 of 224 graded

The model's median gap is +2.3%; the strongest inside, median stock +1.1% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund +1.4%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: +6.4%
Fund, 63 sessions: +1.4%
Median stock, 21 sessions: +1.1%
Above 50-session average: 52%
Implied 1-month move: 14.5%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: 0.79
Reporting in 14 days: 6

What the model reads

Below fair value: 55.0%
Median gap: +2.3%
Change on week: +0.8 pts
Prices / fair values: -1.3% / -1.2%

Widest gaps: VNT +55.5%, BDC +54.2%, QRVO +42.9% · all 224 ranked

Communication Services

30 of 41 graded

The model's median gap is +2.0%; the fund +3.7% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund +7.4%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: +3.7%
Fund, 63 sessions: +7.4%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -3.7%
Above 50-session average: 47%
Implied 1-month move: 11.7%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: 0.37
Reporting in 14 days: 1

What the model reads

Below fair value: 60.0%
Median gap: +2.0%
Change on week: +2.2 pts
Prices / fair values: -2.4% / -1.5%

Widest gaps: DIS +27.8%, SSTK +27.6%, NFLX +27.5% · all 41 ranked

Industrials

187 of 219 graded

The model's median gap is +1.3%; the fund -5.4% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund -6.5%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -5.4%
Fund, 63 sessions: -6.5%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -5.4%
Above 50-session average: 15%
Implied 1-month move: 10.5%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: 0.62
Reporting in 14 days: 5

What the model reads

Below fair value: 55.6%
Median gap: +1.3%
Change on week: -0.7 pts
Prices / fair values: -1.5% / -1.5%

Widest gaps: KMT +57.6%, NPK +56.8%, OSK +53.0% · all 219 ranked

Consumer Cyclical

119 of 186 graded

The model's median gap is +1.2%; the weakest inside, median stock -9.2% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund -2.4%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -3.8%
Fund, 63 sessions: -2.4%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -9.2%
Above 50-session average: 9%
Implied 1-month move: 11.7%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: 0.63
Reporting in 14 days: 9

What the model reads

Below fair value: 53.8%
Median gap: +1.2%
Change on week: -0.8 pts
Prices / fair values: -2.5% / -2.6%

Widest gaps: LEA +55.4%, BBWI +44.2%, PHIN +39.2% · all 186 ranked

Utilities

48 of 56 graded

The model's median gap is +0.3%; the fund -7.1% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund -9.1%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -7.1%
Fund, 63 sessions: -9.1%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -5.5%
Above 50-session average: 7%
Implied 1-month move: 6.4%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: -0.10
Reporting in 14 days: 0

What the model reads

Below fair value: 50.0%
Median gap: +0.3%
Change on week: 0.0 pts
Prices / fair values: -2.1% / -1.9%

Widest gaps: POR +31.0%, AVA +30.8%, PCG +28.4% · all 56 ranked

Basic Materials

56 of 79 graded

The model's narrowest gap to fair value this week; the fund -5.2% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund -3.7%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -5.2%
Fund, 63 sessions: -3.7%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -6.4%
Above 50-session average: 18%
Implied 1-month move: 11.8%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: 0.29
Reporting in 14 days: 3

What the model reads

Below fair value: 44.6%
Median gap: -1.3%
Change on week: 0.0 pts
Prices / fair values: -2.6% / -2.1%

Widest gaps: AA +32.3%, RPM +23.5%, NEM +22.8% · all 79 ranked

Real Estate

7 of 110 graded

No model figure: 7 of 110 names graded, fewer than 20; the fund -5.5% over 21 sessions.

What the market did

Fund -3.2%S&P 500 +3.9%

Fund, 21 sessions: -5.5%
Fund, 63 sessions: -3.2%
Median stock, 21 sessions: -6.1%
Above 50-session average: 7%
Implied 1-month move: 8.5%
Corr. to S&P 500, 63s: -0.08
Reporting in 14 days: 0

What the model reads

No figure: 7 of 110 names graded, fewer than 20.

All 110 names, with the model's reading on each

Performance and risk, from the sector funds

Price returns from the SPDR sector funds, dividends excluded, in trading sessions to the close of 21 Sep 2026. Those funds are cap-weighted large caps on GICS sectors; the model's names are equal-weight and include mid and small caps on the model's own sector labels, so the two will disagree. Fund per sector: Technology XLK, Communication Services XLC, Financial Services XLF, Healthcare XLV, Energy XLE, Consumer Cyclical XLY, Consumer Defensive XLP, Basic Materials XLB, Industrials XLI, Real Estate XLRE, Utilities XLU.

Sector	1 week (5)	1 month (21)	3 months (63)	6 months (126)	1 year (252)	Year to date	Off 252-session high	Vol, 63	Vol, 252	Corr. S&P, 63	Corr. S&P, 252
EnergyXLE	-3.2%	-2.0%	+15.5%	+5.3%	+39.2%	+39.7%	-5.3%	21.9%	22.0%	-0.36	-0.19
HealthcareXLV	+0.8%	-2.0%	+12.6%	+16.3%	+22.9%	+9.2%	-3.8%	19.0%	16.1%	-0.14	0.23
Financial ServicesXLF	-2.0%	-1.8%	+4.1%	+13.9%	+3.3%	+2.1%	-4.5%	12.7%	14.5%	0.42	0.54
Consumer DefensiveXLP	-3.0%	-4.0%	-0.3%	+0.8%	+3.0%	+5.5%	-9.0%	16.5%	14.6%	-0.22	-0.06
TechnologyXLK	+5.7%	+6.4%	+1.4%	+44.0%	+41.1%	+35.3%	-1.7%	29.5%	26.5%	0.79	0.85
Communication ServicesXLC	-0.3%	+3.7%	+7.4%	+2.2%	-3.5%	-2.5%	-4.4%	20.6%	15.8%	0.37	0.56
IndustrialsXLI	0.0%	-5.4%	-6.5%	+5.1%	+11.3%	+9.6%	-8.9%	16.2%	17.2%	0.62	0.71
Consumer CyclicalXLY	-0.5%	-3.8%	-2.4%	+4.2%	-6.7%	-6.0%	-9.9%	19.9%	19.5%	0.63	0.77
UtilitiesXLU	-2.8%	-7.1%	-9.1%	-8.9%	-3.7%	-4.8%	-14.8%	14.7%	15.2%	-0.10	0.12
Basic MaterialsXLB	-1.5%	-5.2%	-3.7%	+5.8%	+9.4%	+9.6%	-7.4%	17.4%	17.8%	0.29	0.53
Real EstateXLRE	-1.2%	-5.5%	-3.2%	+4.9%	+1.3%	+5.6%	-7.4%	13.6%	13.9%	-0.08	0.25
S&P 500SPY	+1.7%	+1.4%	+3.9%	+19.3%	+16.8%	+13.4%	-0.6%	11.8%	13.0%	1.00	1.00

Inside the sectors, from the stocks the model covers

Equal-weight figures across the model's names: the median stock's 21-session price return, the spread between the 25th and 75th of those returns, the share of names above their 50-session average, and the engine's own risk figures as sector medians. Beta is how much a stock moves with the S&P 500, with rate moves held constant, measured over the last 252 sessions; idiosyncratic volatility is the stock's own annualised volatility after market and rate moves are removed, over the same 252 sessions; both on US-listed names, 20 or more. The implied one-month move is the options market's 30-day implied volatility for the typical name, scaled to a month.

Sector	Median stock, 21	Spread, 21	Above 50-session avg	Median beta	Median idiosyncratic vol	Implied 1-month move	Reporting in 14 days
Energy72 names	-6.2%	6.1 pts	33%	0.12	37.2%	12.2%
Healthcare159 names	-1.7%	8.4 pts	50%	0.52	37.1%	11.0%
Financial Services233 names	-2.9%	5.2 pts	22%	0.62	25.3%	9.3%	FDS, JEF
Consumer Defensive81 names	-5.6%	9.8 pts	16%	-0.03	30.4%	10.2%	CAG, CALM, COST, GIS, LW, MKC, STZ
Technology224 names	+1.1%	11.7 pts	52%	1.35	47.5%	14.5%	ACN, CNXC, JBL, MU, PRGS, SNX
Communication Services43 names	-3.7%	13.7 pts	47%	0.48	35.9%	11.7%	SCHL
Industrials219 names	-5.4%	6.8 pts	15%	0.94	32.7%	10.5%	AIR, AYI, CTAS, PAYX, WOR
Consumer Cyclical186 names	-9.2%	8.7 pts	9%	0.74	37.3%	11.7%	AZO, CCL, DRI, KBH, KMX, MLKN, MTN, NKE, THO
Utilities56 names	-5.5%	2.9 pts	7%	-0.14	19.4%	6.4%
Basic Materials79 names	-6.4%	8.9 pts	18%	0.84	34.0%	11.8%	FUL, RPM, WS
Real Estate110 names	-6.1%	5.3 pts	7%	0.24	22.7%	8.5%

What each sector moves with

63-session correlations of daily returns between each sector fund and the S&P 500, Treasuries (IEF), high-yield credit (HYG), gold, copper and the VIX.

Sector	S&P 500	Bonds	Credit	Gold	Copper	VIX
EnergyXLE	-0.36	-0.43	-0.32	-0.14	-0.06	0.28
HealthcareXLV	-0.14	0.27	0.04	0.09	-0.03	0.04
Financial ServicesXLF	0.42	0.25	0.26	0.18	0.20	-0.36
Consumer DefensiveXLP	-0.22	0.21	0.03	-0.15	-0.29	0.17
TechnologyXLK	0.79	0.23	0.47	0.29	0.49	-0.56
Communication ServicesXLC	0.37	0.17	0.17	-0.10	0.03	-0.14
IndustrialsXLI	0.62	0.25	0.33	0.11	0.24	-0.47
Consumer CyclicalXLY	0.63	0.35	0.47	0.18	0.23	-0.58
UtilitiesXLU	-0.10	0.27	0.08	0.01	-0.12	0.01
Basic MaterialsXLB	0.29	0.35	0.29	0.41	0.29	-0.34
Real EstateXLRE	-0.08	0.33	0.13	0.11	0.02	0.07

Sector to sector, 63 sessions

	XLK	XLC	XLF	XLV	XLE	XLY	XLP	XLB	XLI	XLRE	XLU
XLK	1.00	-0.13	-0.04	-0.47	-0.26	0.18	-0.61	0.05	0.57	-0.38	-0.17
XLC	-0.13	1.00	0.51	0.20	-0.31	0.67	0.39	0.18	-0.06	0.31	-0.14
XLF	-0.04	0.51	1.00	0.31	-0.20	0.48	0.37	0.46	0.29	0.39	0.06
XLV	-0.47	0.20	0.31	1.00	-0.03	0.17	0.62	0.34	-0.12	0.50	0.19
XLE	-0.26	-0.31	-0.20	-0.03	1.00	-0.38	0.01	-0.17	-0.30	-0.06	0.12
XLY	0.18	0.67	0.48	0.17	-0.38	1.00	0.24	0.26	0.21	0.17	-0.14
XLP	-0.61	0.39	0.37	0.62	0.01	0.24	1.00	0.32	-0.23	0.63	0.32
XLB	0.05	0.18	0.46	0.34	-0.17	0.26	0.32	1.00	0.39	0.31	0.19
XLI	0.57	-0.06	0.29	-0.12	-0.30	0.21	-0.23	0.39	1.00	-0.07	0.16
XLRE	-0.38	0.31	0.39	0.50	-0.06	0.17	0.63	0.31	-0.07	1.00	0.48
XLU	-0.17	-0.14	0.06	0.19	0.12	-0.14	0.32	0.19	0.16	0.48	1.00

What the model reads, sector by sector

On the 19 Sep 2026 valuations, counting only names that pass the sitewide reliability rule (a high or medium evidence grade, no data flag, a gap inside 60%): the share of graded names trading below the model's fair value and the model's median gap to fair value across them. No figure for a sector with fewer than 20 graded names. The change on the week is split into what prices did and what the model's fair values did, on the names graded in both weeks.

Energy66.2% of 65

Healthcare60.7% of 112

Financial Services58.3% of 48

Consumer Defensive60.3% of 68

Technology55.0% of 191

Communication Services60.0% of 30

Industrials55.6% of 187

Consumer Cyclical53.8% of 119

Utilities50.0% of 48

Basic Materials44.6% of 56

Real Estate7 of 110 graded, fewer than 20

Share of each sector's graded names below the model's fair value, 19 Sep 2026 valuations, in the order of the cards

Sector	Graded of valued	Below fair value	Median gap	Change on week, pts	Prices moved	Fair values moved
Energy	65 of 72	66.2%	+5.5%	-0.4	-4.3%	-3.7%
Healthcare	112 of 159	60.7%	+2.8%	+0.6	+0.4%	+0.4%
Financial Services	48 of 233	58.3%	+2.7%	-0.1	-1.5%	-1.2%
Consumer Defensive	68 of 81	60.3%	+2.4%	-0.2	-0.9%	-0.7%
Technology	191 of 224	55.0%	+2.3%	+0.8	-1.3%	-1.2%
Communication Services	30 of 41	60.0%	+2.0%	+2.2	-2.4%	-1.5%
Industrials	187 of 219	55.6%	+1.3%	-0.7	-1.5%	-1.5%
Consumer Cyclical	119 of 186	53.8%	+1.2%	-0.8	-2.5%	-2.6%
Utilities	48 of 56	50.0%	+0.3%	0.0	-2.1%	-1.9%
Basic Materials	56 of 79	44.6%	-1.3%	0.0	-2.6%	-2.1%
Real Estate	7 of 110

The model's figures say what the model concluded about the sector's stocks, and nothing about the sector's returns.

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The board

Sector by sector

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

What the market did

What the model reads

Performance and risk, from the sector funds

Inside the sectors, from the stocks the model covers

What each sector moves with

Sector to sector, 63 sessions

What the model reads, sector by sector

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