Every Faircurve note, newest first

Friday priced income against growth rather than duration: technology and bitcoin rose while the three sectors bought for income fell.

The Federal Reserve raised the policy rate on Wednesday and on Thursday every maturity beyond two months paid less, which reads as credibility rather than as a growth scare.

The Federal Reserve raised the path without raising the destination, and long-maturity yields and gold both traded that distinction.

Gold stopped protecting against oil shocks in March, when the market switched from expecting rate cuts to expecting more increases.

Investors sold the companies paid to build artificial-intelligence capacity and bought the ones paid to use it, a trade that has already run four times this year.

Friday's hotter core inflation reading made Wednesday's Fed rise near certain, and the market now prices more rises than that one; Wednesday's projections give the Fed's own count.

Thursday's moves sort into three causes, and only the interest-rate one can be reversed by today's inflation reading.

Oil above US$100 is being priced as Federal Reserve policy: a rate rise next week is the consensus, the two- to five-year yields rose most, and the Treasury's tripled buyback lowered no yield.

Tuesday looked worse than it was: oil moved most, one drug stock moved the Dow, and 2 basis points took the two- and ten-year yields to their 2026 highs before a ten-year auction and Friday's...

New York priced the new AI model on Friday and Asia caught up on Monday; the weekend's oil news is the one thing New York has not priced, so today is an oil test, not a chip test.

August's jobs report pointed two ways at once, and the market priced each message at its own maturity.

One Fed governor's case for holding rates steady turned Thursday into a ranking of rate sensitivity, with the assets that pay no income leading the gains.

Private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, below the 47,000 expected, and the soft reading stopped the three-session rise in Treasury yields.

The United States struck Iranian targets on Tuesday after projectiles hit two tankers carrying Saudi oil in the Strait of Hormuz late Monday, and Brent crude rose a further 4.60% to US$94.65.

Monday’s rise in yields came from the long maturities: the thirty-year added 3 basis points to 5.25% and the ten-year 2 to 4.75%, the 2026 high it first reached on 31 July.

Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to recommit to the 2% inflation target and to say the Fed will raise rates again if inflation does not fall.

Nvidia rose 8.74% in its first session after guiding to US$108 billion of revenue next quarter, and Salesforce rose 22.58% after reporting earnings 80% above the analyst forecast and raising guidance.

Amazon tripled its order of Nvidia chips and Nvidia told investors to expect US$108 billion of revenue next quarter, both announced after Wednesday’s close.

Iran and Oman returned to talks over the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and both crude benchmarks fell close to 4%.

Nvidia told customers to expect price rises of about 15% on its next two systems, and seventeen companies that sell artificial-intelligence hardware fell together on Monday.

The bond market spent the week pushing back against Washington, and by Friday it was charging more just to lend.

Walmart beat earnings estimates, raised its full-year outlook, and fell 9.15%, the largest fall in the Dow, on the slowest US comparable-sales growth it has reported since 2020.

The Treasury said it would step up purchases of its own long-dated debt, and the 30-year yield fell 9 basis points to 5.19%.

Energy and health care closed at 2026 highs on the day the index fell.

The failed Iran talks showed up in two prices on Monday: oil and the longest Treasury yields.

Speculative futures money turned long this market days before the consumer data turned down. This week tests the position.

Producer prices were flat in July. The S&P 500 closed at a record. The Treasury and the oil market moved on their own facts.

Inflation is slowing, but long-term Treasury yields are still rising.

Monday repriced oil, yields and gold; the equity index barely moved.

An outright payrolls decline produced a record close, and the composition explains why.

Four markets repriced on Thursday, each on its own cause.

The Hormuz repricing travelled west to east on Wednesday.

Tuesday split the market into assets that priced the Iran deal and assets that did not.

The oil fall and the record were two different events.

The record did not survive the weekend.

The bounce is as narrow as the fall was.

Two separate events show up in the same price.

Oil gave back last week’s entire rise on Monday; the rest of the market moved far less.

Friday looked less like fear and more like a change of leadership.

Alphabet closed Friday at $319.74, up 66% in a year, but 22% below May’s high of $408.61. On 22 July the company reported a record quarter, and the stock still fell 7% the next day.

Monday’s flat close hid a market that is pulling apart rather than moving together.

Friday was a broad sell-off with two new triggers, and the telling part is what did not happen: bonds failed to rally.

Strip out the noise and Thursday was a positioning event dressed as a macro one: the year’s most crowded trade was sold on unambiguously good news.

Faircurve Equity Pulse thematic note: testing the memory / semiconductor peak-demand hypothesis against this cycle and four prior chip cycles.

A second soft inflation reading took a feared July rate increase off the table, and the market repriced around it.

The inflation scare that gripped Monday reversed in a single session, but the relief was narrower than the headline suggests.

The heavy week opened with a broad risk-off day, and the selling started with the market’s leaders.

Friday was the calmest session of the summer; the weekend was not.

The stock market and the credit market spent Thursday disagreeing, and for one day stocks won.

The ceasefire ended and the minutes showed a case for a hike, and the market responded by adding to its two crowded trades, not leaving them.

The questions data can answer were answered benignly on Monday; the two it cannot answer are now the only ones left.

The price evidence and the flow evidence point in opposite directions.

Weak jobs data lifted most of the market; technology fell again.

Meta turned spare capacity into a business.

Read the quarter, not the day.

Equities rebounded; bonds, Asia and crypto did not follow.

The bond market blinked first.

The trade that made 2026 had its reckoning.

The weekend’s feared Iran catalyst defused, Washington cleared Tehran to sell crude in dollars and oil fell, with WTI down 2.03% to $74.31

The hawkish shock lasted exactly one day.

Adobe has fallen roughly 50% in twelve months, from ~$392 last July to about $196, even as the business posted a record fiscal Q2 on 11 June: revenue $6.62B (+13%), non-GAAP EPS $5.96 (+18%), a...

Warsh chose price stability over the market’s comfort, and the relief rally did not survive it.

A rotation, not a retreat, and the main event is still ahead.

Equities took the Iran framework as permission to chase risk; the bond market declined the invitation.

The Iran war premium was not merely unwound this weekend, it was signed away.

The Dow rose 930 points (+1.86%), the S&P 500 gained 1.73% to 7,393 and the Nasdaq 2.54% as the chip complex rebounded; Brent fell to $89.29 and is now down about 6% on the week.

Equities sold off anyway: the S&P 500 fell 1.61% to 7,268, the Nasdaq 1.98% and the Dow 1.87%, its worst session of the year, with seven of eleven sectors red.

Oracle reported a record fiscal Q4 on 10 June, revenue $19.2B (+21%), cloud infrastructure +93%, and a remaining-performance-obligation backlog up $85B to a record $638B, yet the shares fell about...

Monday’s relief bounce did not survive contact with Tuesday, but look past the index and the selling was narrow, not broad.

Dip-buyers answered Friday’s rout, but it was the narrowest of rebounds, and the real test is still 48 hours away.

Good news was bad news, and a top-heavy market sold almost everything that runs on cheap money.

Broadcom closed at $479, up +84% over twelve months and just shy of an all-time high, after a fiscal Q2 (reported 3 June) that again redrew the AI line.

The Dow Jones fell 1.21% (-621 points to 50,687), the Nasdaq Composite 0.89% and the S&P 500 0.74% to 7,554, with the Russell 2000 (-1.31%) the weakest major index.

The Dow Jones (+0.45% to a record 51,308), S&P 500 (+0.13% to 7,610) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.03% to 27,094) all closed at fresh highs

US equities pushed to fresh records on Monday on an AI-driven surge in semiconductors, but the advance ran straight into a more hawkish macro backdrop, with a hot ISM, a front-end Treasury selloff...

Micron closed at $971, up nearly tenfold in twelve months and roughly +75% in May alone, on the sharpest memory up-cycle on record.

Dell closed at $421.30 after a +33% single-session advance, capping one of the sharper re-ratings in large-cap hardware, the stock has risen +279% in a year.

US equities closed a blockbuster May at fresh record highs on Friday, but the day's leadership was unusually narrow, the index gains rested almost entirely on a single sector.

Palantir last traded at $143.34, up +8% in a sector-wide software relief rally, yet still 31% below November's $207.52 peak.

All four headline US indices closed at fresh records again on Thursday, the second consecutive simultaneous-ATH session of 2026, but the day's internals showed narrowing rather than broadening...

Salesforce closed Wednesday at $177.51, down 36% from January's $279 peak and trading at its cheapest forward multiple in a decade.

All three US headline indices closed at fresh records on Wednesday, but the leadership shifted from AI to defensives and broad cyclicals for the first time in five sessions.

AI leadership continues to drive index returns higher even as breadth narrows further.

Peace rally without America: while US desks observed Memorial Day, the rest of the planet priced an Iran framework deal.

Crude is dropping out of the sky on weekend US-Iran peace headlines, and the cross-asset response is telling.

Workday closed Friday at $128, down 46% YoY and roughly half of last October's $257 peak, after a year in which the market priced in agentic-AI seat cannibalisation, a softer Federal pipeline, and a...

A Dow record close masked a quiet week of distribution beneath the headline tape.

Risk-on session built on an oil unwind, but the long end of the curve refused to confirm.

Bonds bury stocks: three days down for the S&P and Nasdaq as the long end keeps repricing.

Most retail valuation tools answer "what is this stock worth" with a single number to two decimal places. We think that's the wrong question.

Split market, single message: long-end yields are now the binding constraint.

Spot $423.54, down 24% from October's $555 high. The market has punished Microsoft for a $64.6B FY25 capex bill that doubled in two years and a CY26 plan that climbs to ~$190B.

NVIDIA Corporation closes 2026-05-16 at $225.32, +67.1% over the past year from the May-2025 low of $129.16.

Friday closed the week with the largest cross-asset selloff in seven sessions. S&P 500 −1.24% to 7,408; Nasdaq −1.54%; Russell 2000 −2.44%, with only Energy holding green.