NYSE: AESI · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) fair value and price range
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) at $8.08 a share. The stock last closed at $12.04, which puts the model's fair value 32.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc., an Austin, Texas-based enterprise established in 2017, offers crucial proppant and supply chain management solutions.
On 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model calculated a fair value of $8.08 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $8.74, so the fair value moved -7.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $6.78 to $9.85, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is 12 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. These comparable companies include RPC, Inc. (RES), Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL), and Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include +1.3% on 3 Aug 2026 and +12.2% on 4 May 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AESI?
The calibrated range for AESI over 63 trading days is $6.78 to $9.85. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.09 to $13.36. In 27% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AESI score on business quality?
Atlas Energy Solutions's overall quality score is 12 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -3.7%ROIC | 6.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 13 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 43 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 13 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 1 | 7.20xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.06x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 11.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.0 pts |
How does AESI compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas equipment & services closest to Atlas Energy Solutions in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RES RPC, Inc. | $5.86 | $7.47 | +27.5% | Undervalued |
| VTOL Bristow Group Inc. | $40.26 | $49.00 | +21.7% | Undervalued |
| INVX Innovex International, Inc. | $27.31 | $24.78 | -9.3% | Fairly valued |
| LBRT Liberty Energy Inc. | $19.31 | $18.48 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| TDW Tidewater Inc. | $82.42 | $83.54 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| WHD Cactus, Inc. | $63.44 | $63.89 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| OII Oceaneering International, Inc. | $44.32 | $41.77 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| CLB Core Laboratories N.V. | $9.92 | $8.52 | -14.1% | Fairly valued |
All oil & gas equipment & services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AESI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Atlas Energy Solutions's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How AESI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | +1.3% |
| 4 May 2026 | +12.2% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | -11.4% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -14.1% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +0.5% |
| 5 May 2025 | -0.6% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -5.9% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | +1.7% |
Atlas Energy Solutions at a glance
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI), an Austin, Texas-based enterprise established in 2017, offers crucial proppant and supply chain management solutions.
- Market value
- $1.6B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Atlas Energy Solutions on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AESI was $8.74. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $8.08, a change of -7.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Atlas Energy Solutions's valuation
Is Atlas Energy Solutions stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AESI's fair value at $8.08 a share against a last close of $12.04, as of 30 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AESI's fair value?
$8.08 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.09 to $13.36.
What price range does the model give AESI?
$6.78 to $9.85 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Atlas Energy Solutions report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AESI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.1% around the report of 3 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AESI is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.