NASDAQ: ALGM · Semiconductors
Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) at $32.80 a share. The stock last closed at $26.80, which puts the model's fair value 22.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $35.15 to $32.80 (-6.7%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $26.80 is 22.4% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 24% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ALGM?
The calibrated range for ALGM over 63 trading days is $21.03 to $36.09. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ALGM's own options imply (82% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.16 to $47.83. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) is in the Technology sector, within semiconductors. It focuses on the creation, production, and worldwide distribution of sophisticated integrated circuits (ICs).
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Allegro MicroSystems at $32.80 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $35.15, so the fair value moved -6.7%. The model's reason, in its own words: the peer group changed, which was most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $25.25 to $40.61. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence Medium, based on the completeness of the inputs, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of the range of outcomes.
Allegro's overall quality score is 62 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality is the strongest, at 78, with trailing revenue growth of 22.8% against a peer median of 14.3%. Earnings quality scores 72, with FCF / net income at 3.39x against a peer median of 1.49x. The model compares the company with Cirrus Logic, Impinj, MaxLinear, FormFactor, Synaptics, Kulicke and Soffa, and Vishay. Silicon Laboratories is also a comparable, with no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ALGM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Allegro MicroSystems's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 22.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ALGM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 23.5% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 ALGM moved 14.2% in one session, against the 4.5% a day that options had priced: 3.1 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ALGM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ALGM
How does ALGM score on business quality?
Allegro MicroSystems's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 60 | 5.8%ROIC | 0.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 72 | 3.39xFCF / net income | 1.49x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 78 | 22.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 45 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 0.70xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.40x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 8.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.4 pts |
How does ALGM compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Allegro MicroSystems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. | $110.23 | $127.81 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
| PI Impinj, Inc. | $161.06 | $166.42 | +3.3% | Fairly valued |
| MXL MaxLinear, Inc. | $44.31 | $76.39 | +72.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
| FORM FormFactor, Inc. | $71.76 | $95.62 | +33.2% | Undervalued |
| SYNA Synaptics Incorporated | $116.40 | $122.46 | +5.2% | Fairly valued |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $221.35 | $206.57 | -6.7% | Low evidence grade |
| KLIC Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. | $59.83 | $101.19 | +69.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
| VSH Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. | $22.02 | $35.89 | +63.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ALGM, the peer-implied price, is $39.86 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Allegro MicroSystems at a glance
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. focuses on the creation, production, and worldwide distribution of sophisticated integrated circuits (ICs).
- Market value
- $5.7B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 3.06
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ALGM was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Allegro MicroSystems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ALGM was $35.15. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $32.80, a change of -6.7%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Allegro MicroSystems's valuation
Is Allegro MicroSystems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ALGM reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $32.80 a share against a last close of $26.80, a gap of +22.4%.
What is ALGM's fair value?
$32.80 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.16 to $47.83.
What price range does the model give ALGM?
$21.03 to $36.09 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Allegro MicroSystems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ALGM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.7% around the report of 29 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ALGM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ALGM
The model holds no idea open on ALGM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ALGM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.