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Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) at $46.59 a share. The stock last closed at $149.31, which puts the model's fair value 68.8% below the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $46.59, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $149.31 is 68.8% above it. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What's nextReports on 12 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 7% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BNY?
The calibrated range for BNY over 63 trading days is $139.55 to $162.25. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BNY's own options imply (23% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $36.16 to $58.91. In 0% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does BNY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Bank of New York Mellon's next earnings report is scheduled for 12 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 4.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BNY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 6.6% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BNY's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BNY
How does BNY compare with similar companies?
The companies in investment banking & services closest to Bank of New York Mellon in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | $77.46 | $62.93 | -18.8% | Low evidence grade |
| HLI Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | $146.74 | $95.93 | -34.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PIPR Piper Sandler Companies | $65.95 | $75.02 | +13.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PJT PJT Partners Inc. | $146.59 | $106.25 | -27.5% | Low evidence grade |
All investment banking & services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Bank of New York Mellon at a glance
The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of financial services. It operates through the following segments: Securities Services, Market and Wealth Services, Investment and Wealth Management, and Other.
- Market value
- $99.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Investment Banking & Services
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -44.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.78
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Bank of New York Mellon on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BNY was $46.27. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $46.59, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Bank of New York Mellon's valuation
Is Bank of New York Mellon stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BNY's fair value at $46.59 a share against a last close of $149.31, as of 31 Oct 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is BNY's fair value?
$46.59 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $36.16 to $58.91.
What price range does the model give BNY?
$139.55 to $162.25 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Bank of New York Mellon report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 12 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BNY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.3% around the report of 15 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BNY is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BNY
The model holds no idea open on BNY today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BNY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.