CACI International Inc (CACI) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $413.48 · Current price: $501.17 · Verdict: Overvalued

The Verdict on CACI

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, CACI INTERNATIONAL INC CLASS A (CACI) is currently Fairly Valued. While the stock trades at $501.17, our median fair value (P50) analysis suggests a figure of $413.48. This indicates that CACI's market price is currently above its statistical fair value, translating to an -17.5% gap. Despite this negative variance, CACI is not categorized as overvalued, suggesting it remains within a broader acceptable valuation range. However, investors should note the implications of the $501.17 exceeding the $413.48 from our simulation.

How CACI stacks up against peers

CACI's Fairly Valued status needs to be considered in light of its qualitative assessment. The company's quality tier is rated as weak when assessing its operational and financial health relative to its sector peers. This weak quality tier is a crucial factor, especially when the current market price of $501.17 is notably higher than the median fair value of $413.48. While the market considers CACI Fairly Valued, the -17.5% figure implies that the stock's current valuation already incorporates a premium relative to its probabilistic fair value derived from our simulations.

What this means for investors

For investors tracking CACI, the combination of a Fairly Valued verdict and a weak quality tier suggests caution. The stock's current trading at $501.17, which is above our $413.48 median fair value, implies that potential for immediate upside based purely on valuation models might be limited, as reflected in the -17.5%. Given the weak quality tier, any significant downside scenario could present a higher risk compared to stronger peers. FairCurve’s analysis provides this critical context. Sign up for a free FairCurve account to see the full bear/bull distribution and track CACI's fair value as new fundamentals are released.