NYSE: CAH · Medical Distribution
Cardinal Health (CAH) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Cardinal Health (CAH) at $231.37 a share. The stock last closed at $228.30, which puts the model's fair value 1.3% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Cardinal Health, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Cardinal Health, Inc. operates as a global, integrated provider of healthcare services and products, with its reach spanning the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and other international markets.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $231.37 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.0% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $236.03. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $210.05 to $264.10, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026), and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The business has an overall quality score of 81 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with McKesson Corporation (MCK), Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC), Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX), Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (EW), Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A), Humana Inc. (HUM), and IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV), and also with Cencora, Inc. (COR) which has no verdict on this date. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports by a median of 4.8%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CAH?
The calibrated range for CAH over 63 trading days is $210.05 to $264.10. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CAH's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $136.46 to $374.04. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CAH score on business quality?
Cardinal Health's overall quality score is 81 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 86.5%ROIC | 19.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 2.64xFCF / net income | 1.32x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 70 | 14.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 2.6%Net buybacks / market value | 3.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 1.46xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.11x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 63 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.2 pts |
How does CAH compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical distribution closest to Cardinal Health in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COR Cencora, Inc. | $309.05 | $317.17 | +2.6% | Low evidence grade |
| MCK McKesson Corporation | $902.28 | $900.86 | -0.2% | Fairly valued |
| HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $84.88 | $87.63 | +3.2% | Fairly valued |
| BDX Becton, Dickinson and Company | $176.80 | $203.75 | +15.2% | Undervalued |
| EW Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | $85.15 | $74.77 | -12.2% | Overvalued |
| A Agilent Technologies, Inc. | $167.78 | $161.23 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
| HUM Humana Inc. | $388.36 | $345.39 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
| IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | $258.21 | $359.38 | +39.2% | Undervalued |
When does CAH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cardinal Health's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CAH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.3% over one month.
How CAH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | -1.3% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -3.7% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | +9.4% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +16.0% |
| 12 Aug 2025 | -6.1% |
| 1 May 2025 | +5.8% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -3.2% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +3.1% |
Cardinal Health at a glance
Cardinal Health, Inc. operates as a global, integrated provider of healthcare services and products, with its reach spanning the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and other international markets.
- Market value
- $51.6B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $269.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- -0.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cardinal Health on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CAH was $236.03. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $231.37, a change of -2.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cardinal Health's valuation
Is Cardinal Health stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CAH's fair value at $231.37 a share against a last close of $228.30, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CAH's fair value?
$231.37 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $136.46 to $374.04.
What price range does the model give CAH?
$210.05 to $264.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Cardinal Health report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CAH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.0% around the report of 30 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CAH is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.