NASDAQ: CERT · Healthcare Information Services
Certara (CERT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Certara (CERT) at $11.11 a share. The stock last closed at $10.87, which puts the model's fair value 2.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Certara, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $10.28 to $11.11 (+8.1%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $10.87 is 2.2% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CERT?
The calibrated range for CERT over 63 trading days is $9.00 to $13.27. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $7.02 to $16.96. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Certara, Inc. provides advanced software solutions and technology-driven services. It specialises in biosimulation across the entire drug development lifecycle.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Certara at $11.11 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $10.28, so the model's fair value moved +8.1%. In the model's own words, "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $9.00 to $13.27. It is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as Medium. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Certara scores 42 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Earnings quality is highest at 63, and Capital discipline is at 61. Growth quality and Stability are lowest, each at 30. Trailing revenue growth was 8.7% against a peer median of 13.8%. The model compares Certara with Omnicell, Inc. (OMCL), HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM), Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY) and Doximity, Inc. (DOCS).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CERT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Certara's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CERT's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.0%.
How does CERT score on business quality?
Certara's overall quality score is 42 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 32 | 0.7%ROIC | 0.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 63 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 30 | 8.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 61 | 4.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 1.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.37x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 30 | 5.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does CERT compare with similar companies?
The companies in healthcare information services closest to Certara in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMCL Omnicell, Inc. | $35.46 | $38.92 | +9.8% | Fairly valued |
| HSTM HealthStream, Inc. | $31.67 | $32.00 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| WAY Waystar Holding Corp. | $27.66 | $30.97 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| DOCS Doximity, Inc. | $32.60 | $32.04 | -1.7% | Fairly valued |
| HQY HealthEquity, Inc. | $102.03 | $111.17 | +9.0% | Low evidence grade |
| BTSG BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock | $69.84 | $62.98 | -9.8% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CERT, the peer-implied price, is $11.10 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All healthcare information services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Certara at a glance
Certara, Inc. provides advanced software solutions and technology-driven services, specializing in biosimulation throughout the entire drug development lifecycle.
- Market value
- $1.7B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Healthcare Information Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $387M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -9.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.63
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CERT was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Certara on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CERT was $10.28. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $11.11, a change of +8.1%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Certara's valuation
Is Certara stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CERT reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $11.11 a share against a last close of $10.87, a gap of +2.2%.
What is CERT's fair value?
$11.11 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $7.02 to $16.96.
What price range does the model give CERT?
$9.00 to $13.27 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Certara report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CERT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -25.1% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CERT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CERT
The model holds no idea open on CERT today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CERT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.