NASDAQ: COLL · Specialty & Generic Drug Manufacturers
Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) at $28.90 a share. The stock last closed at $22.02, which puts the model's fair value 31.2% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) is a specialized pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the development and marketing of medications for pain management. Its diverse product lineup features significant therapies aimed at addressing various pain conditions.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $28.90 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.0% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $29.48. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $24.11 to $35.04, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The business has an overall quality score of 65 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN), Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMRX), and Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (LNTH). The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 10.6% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give COLL?
The calibrated range for COLL over 63 trading days is $24.11 to $35.04. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $9.96 to $57.35. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does COLL score on business quality?
Collegium Pharmaceutical's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 54 | 9.9%ROIC | 8.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 6.85xFCF / net income | 1.24x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 67 | 23.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 5.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 49 | 1.24xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.29x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 34 | 7.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 25.7 pts |
How does COLL compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty & generic drug manufacturers closest to Collegium Pharmaceutical in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCRX Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | $25.21 | $25.41 | +0.8% | Low evidence grade |
| AMPH Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $25.43 | $25.59 | +0.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation | $37.24 | $37.53 | +0.8% | Low evidence grade |
| ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $72.18 | $82.56 | +14.4% | Low evidence grade |
| SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $42.38 | $46.93 | +10.7% | Fairly valued |
| INDV Indivior Pharmaceuticals Inc | $35.71 | $35.86 | +0.4% | Low evidence grade |
| AMRX Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $20.30 | $18.90 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| LNTH Lantheus Holdings, Inc. | $99.96 | $99.94 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
All specialty & generic drug manufacturer stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does COLL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Collegium Pharmaceutical's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How COLL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -17.5% |
| 7 May 2026 | +3.5% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -8.9% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +18.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +17.4% |
| 8 May 2025 | +12.2% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +2.5% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -6.8% |
Collegium Pharmaceutical at a glance
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) is a specialized pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the development and marketing of medications for pain management. Its diverse product lineup features significant therapies aimed at addressing various pain conditions.
- Market value
- $714M
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Specialty & Generic Drug Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $847M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Collegium Pharmaceutical on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for COLL was $29.48. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $28.90, a change of -2.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Collegium Pharmaceutical's valuation
Is Collegium Pharmaceutical stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts COLL's fair value at $28.90 a share against a last close of $22.02, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is COLL's fair value?
$28.90 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $9.96 to $57.35.
What price range does the model give COLL?
$24.11 to $35.04 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Collegium Pharmaceutical report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has COLL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.0% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for COLL is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.