NASDAQ: MEDP · Diagnostics & Research
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Medpace Holdings (MEDP) at $732.27 a share. The stock last closed at $634.98, which puts the model's fair value 15.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Medpace Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $692.79 to $732.27 (+5.7%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $634.98 is 15.3% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 8 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 2 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MEDP?
The calibrated range for MEDP over 63 trading days is $570.84 to $723.73. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MEDP's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $562.64 to $947.12. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Medpace Holdings, Inc. is a contract research organization (CRO) that delivers clinical development and research services. It was founded in Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1992.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $732.27 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $692.79, so the fair value moved +5.7%. The model gives the reason as: "The peer group changed: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $597.17 to $755.14. The range is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and is calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Medpace scores 82 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability and the balance sheet each score 100. Profitability shows ROIC of 1953.7% against a peer median of 8.4%, and the balance sheet shows net debt to EBITDA of -0.87x against a peer median of 1.83x. Earnings quality is the lowest factor at 55, with FCF to net income of 1.29x against a peer median of 1.48x. The model compares Medpace with Revvity (RVTY), Charles River Laboratories (CRL), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Labcorp (LH), Mettler-Toledo (MTD), Illumina (ILMN), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) and IQVIA (IQV).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MEDP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Medpace Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MEDP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.3% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MEDP's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MEDP
How does MEDP score on business quality?
Medpace Holdings's overall quality score is 82 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 1953.7%ROIC | 8.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 55 | 1.29xFCF / net income | 1.48x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 83 | 20.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 68 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.87xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.83x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 73 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.7 pts |
How does MEDP compare with similar companies?
The companies in diagnostics & research closest to Medpace Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RVTY Revvity, Inc. | $150.83 | $188.77 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
| CRL Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. | $313.02 | $423.76 | +35.4% | Undervalued |
| DGX Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | $254.74 | $298.39 | +17.1% | Undervalued |
| LH Labcorp Holdings Inc. | $363.30 | $429.61 | +18.3% | Undervalued |
| MTD Mettler-Toledo International Inc. | $1,679.08 | $1,730.58 | +3.1% | Fairly valued |
| ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $208.00 | $191.98 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| IDXX IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | $670.71 | $574.31 | -14.4% | Overvalued |
| IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | $264.88 | $350.11 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MEDP, the peer-implied price, is $824.51 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All diagnostics & research stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Medpace Holdings at a glance
Medpace Holdings, Inc., founded in Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1992, functions as a contract research organization (CRO) delivering clinical development and research services.
- Market value
- $18.2B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Diagnostics & Research
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.67
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MEDP was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Medpace Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MEDP was $692.79. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $732.27, a change of +5.7%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Medpace Holdings's valuation
Is Medpace Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MEDP reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $732.27 a share against a last close of $634.98, a gap of +15.3%.
What is MEDP's fair value?
$732.27 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $562.64 to $947.12.
What price range does the model give MEDP?
$570.84 to $723.73 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Medpace Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MEDP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +53.2% around the report of 21 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MEDP is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MEDP
The model has an idea open on MEDP under Scorecard Leaders since 2 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MEDP with their outcomes. A free account is enough.