NASDAQ: MORN · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Morningstar (MORN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Morningstar (MORN) at $282.84 a share. The stock last closed at $236.71, which puts the model's fair value 19.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Morningstar, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $272.40 to $282.84 (+3.8%). Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $236.71 is 19.5% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 25 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 13 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MORN?
The calibrated range for MORN over 63 trading days is $211.45 to $271.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MORN's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $202.90 to $386.00. In 71% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Morningstar, Inc. operates as a leading global provider of independent investment research and insights. It serves clients across North America, Europe, Australia and Asia.
Faircurve's model gives Morningstar a fair value of $282.84 a share on the run date, 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $272.40, so the model's fair value moved +3.8%. In the model's own words, analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $211.45 to $271.92. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. That grade covers how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 58 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 75, with ROIC of 20.2% against a peer median of 17.4%. Stability scores 27, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 3.8 points against a peer median of 3.0 points. The model compares the company with FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS), TransUnion (TRU), Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE), Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), MSCI Inc. (MSCI), Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ), Moody's Corporation (MCO) and Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does MORN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Morningstar's next earnings report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MORN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.0% over one month.
How MORN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | +3.1% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | -0.5% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -8.2% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +3.0% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -1.7% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -3.6% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -3.7% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -3.5% |
How does MORN score on business quality?
Morningstar's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 20.2%ROIC | 17.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 1.11xFCF / net income | 1.29x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 53 | 7.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 10.7%Net buybacks / market value | 3.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 61 | 1.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.62x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 27 | 3.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does MORN compare with similar companies?
The companies in financial data & stock exchanges closest to Morningstar in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | $332.59 | $370.55 | +11.4% | Fairly valued |
| TRU TransUnion | $78.55 | $88.00 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | $344.28 | $356.16 | +3.5% | Fairly valued |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | $145.45 | $153.47 | +5.5% | Fairly valued |
| MSCI MSCI Inc. | $639.78 | $578.86 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | $106.97 | $102.85 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
| MCO Moody's Corporation | $503.69 | $460.84 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $170.93 | $166.40 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MORN, the peer-implied price, is $417.75 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All financial data & stock exchanges stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Morningstar at a glance
Morningstar, Inc. operates as a leading global provider of independent investment research and insights, catering to clients across North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia.
- Market value
- $8.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.09
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MORN was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Morningstar on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MORN was $272.40. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $282.84, a change of +3.8%. Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Morningstar's valuation
Is Morningstar stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MORN reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $282.84 a share against a last close of $236.71, a gap of +19.5%.
What is MORN's fair value?
$282.84 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $202.90 to $386.00.
What price range does the model give MORN?
$211.45 to $271.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Morningstar report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MORN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.2% around the report of 29 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MORN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MORN
The model has an idea open on MORN under Scorecard Leaders since 13 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MORN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.