NYSE: OSK · Agricultural Machinery
Oshkosh (OSK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Oshkosh (OSK) at $190.51 a share. The stock last closed at $142.72, which puts the model's fair value 33.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Oshkosh Corp.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $182.85 to $190.51 (+4.2%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $142.72 is 33.5% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OSK?
The calibrated range for OSK over 63 trading days is $128.22 to $162.79. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OSK's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $140.58 to $254.97. In 81% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Oshkosh Corporation provides purpose-built vehicles and equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Access, Vocational, and Transport segment.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $190.51 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $182.85, so the fair value moved +4.2%. In the model's own words, "The peer group changed: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $128.22 to $162.79. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade covers how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Oshkosh scores 73 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six factors measured against comparable companies. Capital discipline scores highest at 95, with net buybacks at 3.9% of market value against a peer median of 0.6%. Growth quality scores lowest at 44, with trailing revenue growth of -2.9% against a peer median of 2.9%. The model compares the company with Federal Signal Corporation (FSS), Lindsay Corporation (LNN), Deere & Company (DE) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does OSK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Oshkosh's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OSK's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OSK's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in OSK
How does OSK score on business quality?
Oshkosh's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 78 | 11.3%ROIC | 8.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 93 | 1.92xFCF / net income | 0.97x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 44 | -2.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 95 | 3.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 86 | 0.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.22x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 1.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does OSK compare with similar companies?
The companies in agricultural machinery closest to Oshkosh in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCO AGCO Corporation | $111.17 | $114.33 | +2.8% | Low evidence grade |
| FSS Federal Signal Corporation | $117.14 | $110.02 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| LNN Lindsay Corporation | $107.37 | $102.86 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| DE Deere & Company | $665.83 | $612.21 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $623.94 | $626.12 | +0.3% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for OSK, the peer-implied price, is $264.20 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All agricultural machinery stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Oshkosh at a glance
Oshkosh Corporation provides purpose-built vehicles and equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Access, Vocational, and Transport segment.
- Market value
- $8.6B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Agricultural Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 1.19
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. OSK was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Oshkosh on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OSK was $182.85. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $190.51, a change of +4.2%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Oshkosh's valuation
Is Oshkosh stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OSK reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $190.51 a share against a last close of $142.72, a gap of +33.5%.
What is OSK's fair value?
$190.51 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $140.58 to $254.97.
What price range does the model give OSK?
$128.22 to $162.79 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Oshkosh report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OSK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +21.7% around the report of 30 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OSK is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OSK
The model holds no idea open on OSK today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OSK with their outcomes. A free account is enough.