NYSE: RDDT · Internet Content & Information
Reddit (RDDT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Reddit (RDDT) at $91.40 a share. The stock last closed at $93.81, which puts the model's fair value 2.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Reddit, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $137.92 to $91.40 (-33.7%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $93.81 is 2.6% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 30 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give RDDT?
The calibrated range for RDDT over 63 trading days is $76.84 to $119.87. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that RDDT's own options imply (67% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $61.99 to $133.57. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Reddit, Inc. oversees an internet-based service dedicated to fostering diverse online communities.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $91.40 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $137.92, so the fair value moved -33.7%. In the model's own words, "The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $85.06 to $126.86, built around the price from the volatility the stock's options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, based on input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The overall quality score is 84 out of 100, scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC of 39.7% against a peer median of 4.8%. Growth quality scores 94, with trailing revenue growth of 69.4% against a peer median of 13.2%. Stability scores 17, with EBITDA margin downside volatility of 12.0 points against a peer median of 6.4. The model compares it with Pinterest, DoorDash, CarGurus, Yelp, Meta Platforms and Alphabet.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does RDDT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Reddit's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. RDDT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.4% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 RDDT moved 7.9% in one session, against the 3.8% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
How RDDT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | -31.9% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +12.7% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -8.4% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -0.9% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +26.3% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | -4.1% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | +45.6% |
| 6 Aug 2024 | -10.8% |
How does RDDT score on business quality?
Reddit's overall quality score is 84 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 39.7%ROIC | 4.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.21xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 94 | 69.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 1.9%Net buybacks / market value | 10.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 92 | -1.30xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.46x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 17 | 12.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.4 pts |
How does RDDT compare with similar companies?
The companies in internet content & information closest to Reddit in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINS Pinterest, Inc. | $19.79 | $24.46 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| MTCH Match Group, Inc. | $39.16 | $40.00 | +2.1% | Low evidence grade |
| DASH DoorDash, Inc. | $179.92 | $188.46 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| CARG CarGurus, Inc. | $36.15 | $32.86 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| YELP Yelp Inc. | $20.52 | $23.27 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $605.08 | $679.50 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| SSTK Shutterstock, Inc. | $3.07 | $5.25 | +71.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
| GOOG Alphabet Inc. | $281.74 | $253.16 | -10.1% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for RDDT, the peer-implied price, is $88.76 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All internet content & information stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Reddit at a glance
Reddit, Inc. oversees an internet-based service dedicated to fostering diverse online communities.
- Market value
- $17.6B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +53.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 23
- Beta to the US market
- 2.50
- First valued by Faircurve
- 22 Aug 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. RDDT was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Reddit on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for RDDT was $137.92. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $91.40, a change of -33.7%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Reddit's valuation
Is Reddit stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, RDDT reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $91.40 a share against a last close of $93.81, a gap of -2.6%.
What is RDDT's fair value?
$91.40 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $61.99 to $133.57.
What price range does the model give RDDT?
$76.84 to $119.87 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Reddit report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RDDT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +45.6% around the report of 29 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RDDT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on RDDT
The model has an idea open on RDDT under Scorecard Leaders since 30 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on RDDT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.