NYSE: VMI · Conglomerates
Valmont Industries (VMI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Valmont Industries (VMI) at $406.66 a share. The stock last closed at $398.05, which puts the model's fair value 2.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Valmont Industries, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $415.79 to $406.66 (-2.2%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $398.05 is 2.2% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 16 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 29 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give VMI?
The calibrated range for VMI over 63 trading days is $356.37 to $455.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that VMI's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $326.53 to $500.80. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Valmont Industries, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in engineered products. It runs operations across the United States, Australia, Brazil, Denmark, and other international markets. It sits in the Industrials sector, under Conglomerates.
Faircurve's model gives Valmont Industries a fair value of $406.66 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $415.79, so the fair value moved -2.2%. In the model's words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $382.95 to $472.28. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is High, which looks at input completeness, comparable companies and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Valmont scores 45 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score. Stability is highest at 82: five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.2 pts, against a peer median of 1.6 pts. Earnings quality is lowest at 4: FCF to net income of 0.59x, against a peer median of 1.05x. The model compares it with Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) and 3M Company (MMM).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does VMI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Valmont Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. VMI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.7% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 VMI moved 5.4% in one session, against the 2.0% a day that options had priced: 2.7 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across VMI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in VMI
How does VMI score on business quality?
Valmont Industries's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 60 | 21.7%ROIC | 12.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 4 | 0.59xFCF / net income | 1.05x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 34 | 0.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 16.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 3.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 59 | 1.12xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.11x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 82 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does VMI compare with similar companies?
The companies in conglomerates closest to Valmont Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHC Graham Holdings Company | $1,217.86 | $1,279.14 | +5.0% | Low evidence grade |
| OTTR Otter Tail Corporation | $80.00 | $91.13 | +13.9% | Fairly valued |
| MMM 3M Company | $187.77 | $196.58 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| MATW Matthews International Corporation | $19.80 | $19.45 | -1.8% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for VMI, the peer-implied price, is $383.98 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Valmont Industries at a glance
Valmont Industries, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in engineered products, conducting operations across the United States, Australia, Brazil, Denmark, and other international markets.
- Market value
- $8.1B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Conglomerates
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.19
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. VMI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Valmont Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for VMI was $415.79. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $406.66, a change of -2.2%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Valmont Industries's valuation
Is Valmont Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, VMI reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $406.66 a share against a last close of $398.05, a gap of +2.2%.
What is VMI's fair value?
$406.66 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $326.53 to $500.80.
What price range does the model give VMI?
$356.37 to $455.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Valmont Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VMI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.5% around the report of 18 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VMI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on VMI
The model has an idea open on VMI under Earnings Momentum since 29 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on VMI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.