Chipmakers led the S&P 500 0.31% higher on Friday, 6 November, as they recovered part of Thursday's slide, while strong US hiring lifted bets on a December rate rise and most shares fell. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.09% at the close, but the Dow Jones fell 0.46% as the buying stayed in technology.

The buying went to the AI shares that had led the week's selling. Technology stocks had fallen into correction territory before Friday's partial rebound. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX) led the chipmakers higher. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.78% and alone carried most of the S&P 500's gain. Elsewhere the selling continued, and only 40% of shares closed higher. Monster Beverage (MNST) fell 4.41%, its largest one-day fall since 18 March 2026. On Faircurve's reading, the worry behind the week's selling is whether the spending on AI will keep growing, and Friday's buying eased that worry in the chipmakers alone.

Whether the selling in AI shares is over is the question the day leaves open. On Friday the gains went to high-beta shares, the ones that move most with the market. They led low-beta shares by 4.61%, after trailing them by 20.31% over the month. Technology closed the week down 8.23% even after Friday's gain. Friday's buyers paid a price that needs 9% a year of earnings growth for five years, against the 17% analysts expect from the sector's typical company next year. That points to a bounce in the month's laggards, with most of the week's losses still in place.

The Fed's December decision is the day's other story. US payrolls rose 165,000 in October, against a forecast of 59,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings also grew faster than forecast. On Kalshi, the regulated exchange for bets on Fed decisions, the odds of a rate rise on Wednesday 9 December rose to 75%. Those odds had fallen during Thursday's slide, and the hiring data restored most of that loss.

The selling sat in the defensive sectors that had gained over the month. Consumer staples fell 1.28%, the day's weakest sector. Rate-sensitive companies lagged the companies least sensitive to rates by 4.06% as yields rose after the jobs data. Staples' price needs 19% a year of earnings growth for five years, against the 6% analysts expect from the typical company next year. The likelier explanation is profit-taking in the month's havens, hastened by the rise in yields.

Treasury yields rose on the jobs data, most at the shorter maturities. The two-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.51%, and the ten-year yield rose less, closing at 4.86%. The two-year's larger rise fits the higher odds of a December rise. Oil edged higher, still far below where it stood a week ago. Gold fell 0.94% to $4,074.90 an ounce and the dollar rose against the euro and the pound, both in step with higher yields.

Asian markets fell on their first session after Thursday's US technology selling, closing before the US jobs data. The KOSPI fell 6.02% and the Nikkei 225 fell 5.96%, leaving Korea's index down 11.71% on the week. Europe traded through the jobs data and fell as well, with the DAX losing 1.97%. Korea and Japan had already fallen hard this month, so Monday's Asian session will show whether Friday's chip rebound reaches them.

Faircurve's model reads the day as a bounce confined to the most volatile shares. The broad market fell 0.09%, with every covered share counted equally. The shares the model rates cheapest and the shares the model flags as value traps both moved close to it. Tuesday's October inflation report will test the December odds, and Applied Materials (AMAT) reports on Thursday, the next test of the chip rebound.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 11.04% as the chipmakers recovered, though it remains 11.05% lower over the week. The model's fair value sits 2.2% below the price, evidence grade medium.

• Intel (INTC) rose 7.71% on Friday, leaving it 14.42% down over the week. The model's fair value sits 19.1% above the price, evidence grade medium.

• Vistra (VST) rose 10.55% in the session before its results, then added 0.36% in after-hours trading as earnings of $3.01 a share beat the $2.98 estimate. The model's fair value sits 19.5% above the price, evidence grade medium.

• Humana (HUM) rose 5.33% in the session before its results and slipped 0.20% in after-hours trading. The reported earnings carried a one-off, and revenue came in close to the estimate.

• Charter Communications (CHTR) fell 6.19% after it kept losing internet and video subscribers in the third quarter. The company plans a new savings program.

• Kratos Defense and Security Solutions (KTOS) rose 5.12% as analysts named it among the defense companies that could hold up under a Democratic-led government.

The October consumer price report comes at 8:30 a.m. New York time on Tuesday 10 November, with annual inflation forecast at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.5%. A hotter reading would add to the case for a December rise. Cisco (CSCO) reports on Wednesday, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.32 a share, and Applied Materials reports on Thursday, expected at $4.05 a share. Their outlooks will show whether technology companies still see demand holding.

Fri 6 Nov, sorted best to worst on the day, with the model’s read.

Three of eleven sectors rose, with technology (+1.45%) ahead and consumer staples last, while communications held a weekly gain of 4.89% as technology lost ground on the week. The model's fair value sits 5.0% above technology's price at the median, the most value the model finds in any sector.

The session’s biggest moves among large companies the model values.

Chipmakers made up most of the winners as they recovered part of the week's losses, while software makers Salesforce (CRM) and Intuit (INTU) sat among the losers. The model's fair value sits 29.5% above Lam Research's price, evidence grade medium.

What investors trade, read through the theme funds.

The growth themes led the real-economy themes by 3.05% on Friday, and the high-beta themes led as well. Uranium led, up 4.39%, and semiconductors rose 3.62%, though they remain 23.10% lower over the month. Medical devices lagged, down 2.44%, as the themes that had gained over the month gave ground. The model's fair value sits 7.9% above the price of semiconductor shares at the median, in a theme that took the month's heaviest selling and led Friday's buying.

Faircurve’s credit gauge: spreads implied by bond-fund prices.

CCC widening flag: Faircurve's credit gauge flags a widening in the lowest-rated tier: an implied move of about 114 bp over the last 20 sessions. The CCC-to-high-yield gap is 971 bp, wider than on 99% of days over three years.

The high-yield spread is in the top 23% of weeks over the past three years (high), rising for three weeks.

Lenders eased up on the weakest borrowers on Friday. The CCC spread narrowed 20 basis points on Faircurve's credit gauge, which reads spreads from bond-fund prices. A CCC-rated borrower still pays a yield near 18%, a cost that keeps new borrowing hard for the weakest companies.

A December rise is now the clear favourite on Kalshi, with the odds up 11 points since Thursday's session, and the bills' rising path agrees with them. Fed speakers on Monday and Tuesday, then Tuesday's October inflation report, are the next tests for those odds before the December decision.