NASDAQ: AMD · Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) at $576.12 a share. The stock last closed at $633.91, which puts the model's fair value 9.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) was established in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. The company operates as a global leader in the semiconductor industry.
Faircurve's model valued Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) at $576.12 a share on 3 Oct 2026. This fair value is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations and represents a +0.7% change from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $572.35. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $550.35 to $801.12, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 63 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Intel Corp. (INTC), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), and KLA Corporation (KLAC). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median of 4.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AMD?
The calibrated range for AMD over 63 trading days is $550.35 to $801.12. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AMD's own options imply (53% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $444.38 to $736.81. In 38% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AMD score on business quality?
Advanced Micro Devices's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 30 | 8.4%ROIC | 19.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 79 | 1.31xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 82 | 34.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 23.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 85 | -0.08xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.47x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 95 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.6 pts |
How does AMD compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Advanced Micro Devices in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $1,074.89 | $1,491.86 | +38.8% | Undervalued |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | $1,867.31 | $2,186.72 | +17.1% | Undervalued |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $355.14 | $445.16 | +25.3% | Undervalued |
| INTC Intel Corp. | $119.33 | $111.02 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $347.49 | $372.26 | +7.1% | Fairly valued |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $540.04 | $622.93 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $307.49 | $268.33 | -12.7% | Data under review |
| KLAC KLA Corporation | $206.89 | $209.39 | +1.2% | Fairly valued |
When does AMD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Advanced Micro Devices's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AMD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.4% over one month.
How AMD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -0.5% |
| 5 May 2026 | +23.4% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | -18.7% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -1.3% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -7.7% |
| 6 May 2025 | -0.2% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | -2.0% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -7.1% |
Advanced Micro Devices at a glance
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), established in 1969 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, operates as a global leader in the semiconductor industry.
- Market value
- $1.03T
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $80.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +47.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 31
- Beta to the US market
- 3.33
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Advanced Micro Devices on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AMD was $572.35. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $576.12, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Advanced Micro Devices's valuation
Is Advanced Micro Devices stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AMD reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $576.12 a share against a last close of $633.91, a gap of -9.1%.
What is AMD's fair value?
$576.12 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $444.38 to $736.81.
What price range does the model give AMD?
$550.35 to $801.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Advanced Micro Devices report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AMD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.4% around the report of 5 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AMD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.