NASDAQ: MNST · Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Monster Beverage (MNST) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Monster Beverage (MNST) at $40.99 a share. The stock last closed at $42.94, which puts the model's fair value 4.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Monster Beverage Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Monster Beverage Corporation is a global entity primarily involved in the innovation, marketing, sale, and distribution of energy beverages and concentrates.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $40.99 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $42.35, a move of -3.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.39 to $49.98, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 84 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, its earnings quality score 71, its growth quality score 76, its capital discipline score 76, its balance sheet score 98, and its stability score 74. The model compares it with Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., PepsiCo, Inc., The Coca-Cola Company, The Vita Coco Company, Inc., and National Beverage Corp. Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves was 3.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MNST?
The calibrated range for MNST over 63 trading days is $34.39 to $49.98. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $33.21 to $50.51. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MNST score on business quality?
Monster Beverage's overall quality score is 84 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 28.7%ROIC | 13.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 71 | 0.99xFCF / net income | 0.83x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 76 | 10.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 76 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 98 | -0.74xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.07x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 74 | 1.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does MNST compare with similar companies?
The companies in non-alcoholic beverages closest to Monster Beverage in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | $101.06 | $90.19 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $30.37 | $33.06 | +8.9% | Fairly valued |
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $125.89 | $157.62 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | $85.65 | $71.63 | -16.4% | Overvalued |
| COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $192.04 | $222.46 | +15.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $26.75 | $28.11 | +5.1% | Data under review |
| COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc. | $55.97 | $59.61 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $30.32 | $30.68 | +1.2% | Fairly valued |
All non-alcoholic beverage stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MNST report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Monster Beverage's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MNST moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -4.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | -44.1% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -0.1% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +2.7% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +8.7% |
| 8 May 2025 | +0.7% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +5.8% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | +1.8% |
Monster Beverage at a glance
Monster Beverage Corporation is a global entity primarily involved in the innovation, marketing, sale, and distribution of energy beverages and concentrates.
- Market value
- $84.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Non-Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- -0.19
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Monster Beverage on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MNST was $42.35. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $40.99, a change of -3.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Monster Beverage's valuation
Is Monster Beverage stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MNST reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $40.99 a share against a last close of $42.94, a gap of -4.5%.
What is MNST's fair value?
$40.99 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $33.21 to $50.51.
What price range does the model give MNST?
$34.39 to $49.98 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Monster Beverage report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MNST moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -44.1% around the report of 7 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MNST is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.