CoreWeave's strong late-Tuesday results set off a rally in the chipmakers on Wednesday, 11 November, lifting the S&P 500 1.31% to 7,619, while the companies paying for the data centres slipped. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.60% at the close and the Dow Jones rose 0.49%.

The rally began at the open, as CoreWeave's results lifted technology shares, though trading stayed volatile amid renewed doubts about AI. Wednesday's buying treated the month's worry, that the AI trade had run ahead of the demand behind it, as overdone among the companies selling the hardware. The technology sector surged 3.23%, the best of the 11 sectors, after trailing the S&P 500 by 7.16% over the month. Nvidia (NVDA) gained 2.87% even as a report said President Trump had been told in May of chief executive Jensen Huang's alleged relationship with a suspected Chinese spy. Nvidia moved with the rest of the chipmakers, so the group's recovery outweighed the news about its chief executive.

The rebound stopped at the companies that pay for the build-out. Microsoft (MSFT) fell 2.26%, taking its loss on the week to 6.24%, while Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) also declined. Those three are among the five data-centre builders, which raised $302 billion of net new debt over the last four quarters against $18 billion in the four before, by Faircurve's count from their cash-flow statements. The day's prices rewarded the companies receiving that spending and marked down the ones financing it, the pattern of a market that has accepted the demand and now questions its cost.

The kind of share that moved says more about the day than its size does. After the earlier gains at least this large, the index was higher a month later in 66% of instances (281 of 429, vs. a 66% unconditional base rate). That hit rate matches the base rate, so the size of the day has said little about the month that followed. High-beta shares outperformed low-beta shares by 2.54%, and rate-sensitive companies underperformed the companies least sensitive to rates by 3.44%, as the chart shows. Both moves reversed the month's leadership, which marks a rotation into the month's laggards, with profit-taking in the shares that had led.

The month's havens gave some ground, and their prices still assume more growth than analysts do. Consumer staples rose 0.46%, trailing the index, and the sector's trailing P/E sits in the top 10% of its days since June 2022. The sector's price needs 20% a year of earnings growth, against the 7% analysts expect from its typical company next year. A multiple near the top of its range reverts through earnings catching up or the price giving way. A gap that wide favours the price giving way, the pattern of a haven bid that Wednesday's rotation began to unwind.

Lenders joined the rally in high yield and held back from its lowest-quality tier. Faircurve's credit gauge, which reads spreads from bond-fund prices, shows the high-yield spread narrowing 7 bp on the day while the CCC spread widened 4 bp. The CCC spread over high yield sits in the 100th percentile of its three years, and in shares the most indebted companies underperformed the least indebted by 1.00%. Both point to decompression within high yield, with the riskiest borrowers paying more on a day the rest of high yield paid less.

Gold and volatility retreated with the rally, and the Fed's path held where the inflation data had left it. Gold fell 0.74% and the VIX dropped to 17.49 as the options market priced less turbulence after the rebound. The market-implied odds of a quarter-point hike on 9 December stand at 100%, unchanged since Tuesday's hotter October consumer price report. Brent crude rose 1.39%, adding to the energy sector's gain. Shares rallied with a December hike fully priced, which makes the AI trade the day's driver, with the Fed's path already in the price.

Taipei and Seoul opened after CoreWeave's results and led Asia higher. The TAIEX rose 3.62% and the KOSPI 2.60%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped. Europe traded through New York's morning and rose more modestly, the DAX up 0.92%, as the euro fell 0.63% to 1.1094 against a firmer dollar. Some Asian economies are heavily exposed to the American data-centre build-out, which ties their markets to the AI trade in both directions.

Faircurve's model reads the day as a recovery in the AI trade in which the shares the model rates cheapest rose 0.91%, close to the broad market's 0.78%, with every covered share counted equally. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports on Thursday and Nvidia on Wednesday 18 November, the next tests of whether the chipmakers' rebound has results behind it.

• Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.87%, and Silicon Valley figures came to the defence of chief executive Jensen Huang. The company reports on Wednesday 18 November, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.47 a share.

• Micron Technology (MU) rose 11.89% as the chipmakers recovered, taking its gain on the week to 2.02%. The model's fair value sits 17.4% above the price, evidence grade medium.

• Sandisk (SNDK) rose 13.69% with the chipmakers but remains 5.76% lower on the week. The model's fair value sits 8.3% above the price, evidence grade medium.

• ARM Holdings (ARM) rose 12.05% with the chip designers and makers, taking its gain on the week to 6.03%. The model's fair value sits 25.0% below the price, evidence grade medium.

• Microsoft (MSFT) fell 2.26% as the buying passed over the companies financing the AI build-out. The model's fair value sits 9.4% below the price, evidence grade high.

Applied Materials (AMAT) reports on Thursday, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.05 a share, a test of whether the chipmakers' recovery reaches the equipment makers' results. US initial jobless claims come at 8:30 a.m. in New York on Thursday, forecast at 195K, the next read on the room the economy gives the Fed. Nvidia (NVDA) reports on Wednesday 18 November, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.47 a share, the result that bears most on whether the AI rebound holds.

Wed 11 Nov, sorted best to worst on the day, with the model’s read.

Ten of 11 sectors rose, with consumer discretionary the lone decliner (-0.05%) and energy (+1.86%) running second despite trailing the index by 5.03% over the month. The model's fair value sits 4.6% above technology's price at the median.

The session’s biggest moves among large companies the model values.

Most of the winners sell memory, chips and servers into the AI build-out, and three of the five losers are among the companies paying for it. The model's fair value sits 9.2% below the price of Dell Technologies (DELL), evidence grade medium.

What investors trade, read through the theme funds.

The growth themes led the real-economy themes by 2.95%, and the high-beta themes led with them, the pattern of a day that added risk. Semiconductors rose 4.82% and quantum computing 3.14%, both still well behind the S&P 500 over the month, while gold miners fell 1.48% as the haven trades gave ground. The model's fair value sits 6.7% above semiconductor prices at the median, so the day's leader is a theme the model rates cheap.

Faircurve’s credit gauge: spreads implied by bond-fund prices.

CCC widening flag: not raised. The CCC-to-high-yield gap is 998 bp, wider than on every other day over three years.

The high-yield spread is in the top 17% of weeks over the past three years (high), rising for four weeks.

Lenders are charging the lowest-quality tier within high yield heavily, with a CCC-rated borrower paying a yield near 18%. Among the companies the model values, 144 earn less than their interest bill, fewer than a year ago. The riskiest borrowers feel any further widening first, which makes the CCC spread the measure to watch if the equity rebound fades.

A December hike is fully priced, and the odds have risen 22 points since 2 November as the inflation data ran hotter than forecast. Thursday's speeches by Fed officials, among them Hammack, Barr and Williams, are the next chance to signal how far the tightening runs into January. The bills' rising path agrees with the odds.