NASDAQ: SNDK · Computer Hardware
Sandisk (SNDK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Sandisk (SNDK) at $2,394.77 a share. The stock last closed at $1,719.99, which puts the model's fair value 39.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Sandisk Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
SanDisk Corporation specializes in designing, manufacturing, and supplying storage solutions and devices leveraging advanced NAND flash technology.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $2,394.77 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $2,475.65, so the fair value moved -3.3%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days, built around the price from the stock's own options, was $1,448.14 to $2,287.02. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time. The evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 74 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Arista Networks, Inc., Western Digital Corporation, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, Everpure, Inc., NetApp, Inc., and HP Inc. Moves around the last 7 earnings reports, from the close before to the close after each report, ranged from -11.8% to +14.0%, with a median size of 10.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SNDK?
The calibrated range for SNDK over 63 trading days is $1,448.14 to $2,287.02. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SNDK's own options imply (65% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1,721.04 to $3,284.69. In 80% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SNDK score on business quality?
Sandisk's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 95.7%ROIC | 16.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 40 | 1.01xFCF / net income | 1.20x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 99 | 175.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 78 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 84 | -0.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.39x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 18.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does SNDK compare with similar companies?
The companies in computer hardware closest to Sandisk in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $207.35 | $192.12 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
| STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $848.99 | $817.51 | -3.7% | Low evidence grade |
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $562.52 | $551.06 | -2.0% | Low evidence grade |
| WDC Western Digital Corporation | $415.29 | $463.63 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $69.33 | $71.62 | +3.3% | Fairly valued |
| P Everpure, Inc. | $140.14 | $125.51 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $226.27 | $204.03 | -9.8% | Fairly valued |
| HPQ HP Inc. | $32.12 | $37.06 | +15.4% | Undervalued |
When does SNDK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sandisk's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SNDK's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 18.7% over one month.
How SNDK moved around its last 7 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 7 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -11.8% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +11.5% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +9.2% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +10.6% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | -5.3% |
| 7 May 2025 | +8.4% |
| 7 Mar 2025 | +14.0% |
Sandisk at a glance
SanDisk Corporation specializes in designing, manufacturing, and supplying storage solutions and devices leveraging advanced NAND flash technology.
- Market value
- $254.7B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $51.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +141.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 4.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sandisk on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SNDK was $2,475.65. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $2,394.77, a change of -3.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sandisk's valuation
Is Sandisk stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SNDK reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $2,394.77 a share against a last close of $1,719.99, a gap of +39.2%.
What is SNDK's fair value?
$2,394.77 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1,721.04 to $3,284.69.
What price range does the model give SNDK?
$1,448.14 to $2,287.02 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Sandisk report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SNDK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 7 reports the median two session move was 10.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.0% around the report of 7 Mar 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SNDK is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.