NASDAQ: AHCO · Medical Devices
AdaptHealth (AHCO) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values AdaptHealth (AHCO) at $5.55 a share. The stock last closed at $5.60, which puts the model's fair value 0.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. AdaptHealth Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
AdaptHealth Corp., alongside its network of subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive range of home medical equipment (HME), supplies, and associated services across the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $5.55 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $5.63, so the fair value moved -1.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $4.63 to $6.73, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The business has an overall quality score of 32 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its quality scores include Profitability 5, Earnings quality 88, Growth quality 35, Capital discipline 26, Balance sheet 16, and Stability 22. The model compares it with Cytek Biosciences, Inc. (CTKB), Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation (IART), Enovis Corporation (ENOV), Artivion, Inc. (AORT), Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM), and UFP Technologies, Inc. (UFPT). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 12.9%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AHCO?
The calibrated range for AHCO over 63 trading days is $4.63 to $6.73. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1.68 to $10.25. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AHCO score on business quality?
AdaptHealth's overall quality score is 32 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | -0.3%ROIC | 33.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 88 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 35 | -0.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 26 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 7.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 16 | 6.97xNet debt / EBITDA | -1.89x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 22 | 8.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.8 pts |
How does AHCO compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to AdaptHealth in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTKB Cytek Biosciences, Inc. | $5.87 | $7.27 | +23.9% | Undervalued |
| IART Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation | $12.68 | $15.96 | +25.9% | Undervalued |
| ENOV Enovis Corporation | $17.77 | $23.09 | +29.9% | Undervalued |
| AORT Artivion, Inc. | $22.31 | $26.81 | +20.2% | Undervalued |
| TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. | $16.50 | $20.57 | +24.7% | Undervalued |
| CNMD CONMED Corporation | $46.32 | $57.63 | +24.4% | Low evidence grade |
| INSP Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. | $69.97 | $70.18 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| UFPT UFP Technologies, Inc. | $300.70 | $278.76 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
When does AHCO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
AdaptHealth's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How AHCO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -40.0% |
| 5 May 2026 | -12.4% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -9.3% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +13.8% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +8.1% |
| 6 May 2025 | -13.5% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | +29.8% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +0.3% |
AdaptHealth at a glance
AdaptHealth Corp., alongside its network of subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive range of home medical equipment (HME), supplies, and associated services across the United States.
- Market value
- $762M
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -11.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices AdaptHealth on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AHCO was $5.63. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $5.55, a change of -1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about AdaptHealth's valuation
Is AdaptHealth stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AHCO's fair value at $5.55 a share against a last close of $5.60, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AHCO's fair value?
$5.55 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1.68 to $10.25.
What price range does the model give AHCO?
$4.63 to $6.73 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does AdaptHealth report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AHCO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -40.0% around the report of 4 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AHCO is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.