NYSE: INSP · Medical Devices
Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) at $68.30 a share. The stock last closed at $66.53, which puts the model's fair value 2.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $71.32 to $68.30 (-4.2%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $66.53 is 2.7% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give INSP?
The calibrated range for INSP over 63 trading days is $56.78 to $80.83. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that INSP's own options imply (53% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $53.55 to $86.86. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) is a medical technology company. It develops and commercialises minimally intrusive therapies for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Inspire Medical Systems at $68.30 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $71.32, so the fair value moved -4.2%. The model says the multiple it anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $57.32 to $80.11. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model compares Inspire with UFP Technologies, Inc. (UFPT), Neogen Corporation (NEOG) and Enovis Corporation (ENOV), each of which has a fair value of its own on the site. Five further comparable companies have no verdict on this date. The quality scores against these peers are not part of the figures available for this note, so they are not given here.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does INSP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Inspire Medical Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. INSP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.4% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 INSP moved 7.6% in one session, against the 3.4% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across INSP's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in INSP
How does INSP compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to Inspire Medical Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFPT UFP Technologies, Inc. | $299.82 | $253.80 | -15.3% | Overvalued |
| TMDX TransMedics Group, Inc. | $68.98 | $78.59 | +13.9% | Low evidence grade |
| NEOG Neogen Corporation | $11.68 | $10.47 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. | $17.99 | $19.14 | +6.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CNMD CONMED Corporation | $52.83 | $58.55 | +10.8% | Low evidence grade |
| ENOV Enovis Corporation | $28.62 | $26.53 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
| AORT Artivion, Inc. | $25.33 | $21.20 | -16.3% | Low evidence grade |
| IART Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation | $14.12 | $9.30 | -34.1% | Low evidence grade |
Inspire Medical Systems at a glance
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. operates as a medical technology enterprise, concentrating on the development and commercialization of advanced, minimally intrusive therapies for patients diagnosed with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) across both domestic U.S.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $882M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -6.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.81
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Inspire Medical Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for INSP was $71.32. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $68.30, a change of -4.2%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Inspire Medical Systems's valuation
Is Inspire Medical Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts INSP's fair value at $68.30 a share against a last close of $66.53, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is INSP's fair value?
$68.30 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $53.55 to $86.86.
What price range does the model give INSP?
$56.78 to $80.83 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Inspire Medical Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has INSP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -30.3% around the report of 4 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for INSP is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on INSP
The model holds no idea open on INSP today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on INSP with their outcomes. A free account is enough.