NYSE: AIG · Diversified Insurance
American International Group (AIG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values American International Group (AIG) at $87.19 a share. The stock last closed at $74.93, which puts the model's fair value 16.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. American International Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a global insurance provider. It delivers a broad spectrum of insurance solutions to commercial, institutional, and individual clients across North America and worldwide.
Faircurve's model valued American International Group, Inc. (AIG) on 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value was $87.19 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $86.58, and the fair value moved +0.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $68.39 to $87.16, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The model compares American International Group, Inc. (AIG) with The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG). It also lists Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL), Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW), and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) as comparable companies with no verdict on this date. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, include -1.7% on 6 Aug 2026 and +6.7% on 30 Apr 2026. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 2.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AIG?
The calibrated range for AIG over 63 trading days is $68.39 to $87.16. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AIG's own options imply (34% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $73.99 to $101.50. In 78% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AIG compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified insurance closest to American International Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $126.05 | $158.51 | +25.8% | Undervalued |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | $93.60 | $114.68 | +22.5% | Low evidence grade |
| GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | $9.55 | $9.06 | -5.1% | Low evidence grade |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | $502.65 | $417.65 | -16.9% | Low evidence grade |
All diversified insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AIG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
American International Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AIG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.9% over one month.
On 29 Sep 2026 AIG moved 3.4% in one session, against the 1.7% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
How AIG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -1.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +6.7% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +4.7% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -3.3% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -2.3% |
| 1 May 2025 | +2.6% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | +2.4% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -0.4% |
American International Group at a glance
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a global insurance provider, delivering a broad spectrum of insurance solutions to commercial, institutional, and individual clients across North America and worldwide.
- Market value
- $39.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Diversified Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.16
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices American International Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AIG was $86.58. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $87.19, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about American International Group's valuation
Is American International Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AIG reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $87.19 a share against a last close of $74.93, a gap of +16.4%.
What is AIG's fair value?
$87.19 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $73.99 to $101.50.
What price range does the model give AIG?
$68.39 to $87.16 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does American International Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AIG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.7% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AIG is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.